Colts vs Chiefs Touchdown Picks & First TD Prediction: Sunday Night Football

Geoff Clark - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Geoff Clark • Betting Analyst 22+ years betting experience
Updated: Sep 20, 2026 , 01:30 PM ET • 4 min read

Geoff Clark's Colts vs. Chiefs touchdown picks target Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce, and Jonathan Taylor as the best scoring options on the board.

Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Keenan Allen (10).
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Keenan Allen (10).

Sunday Night Football offers several intriguing scoring angles as the Indianapolis Colts travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs on NBC, and our Colts vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown picks focus on three proven playmakers.

Keenan Allen and Travis Kelce headline the anytime markets, while Jonathan Taylor brings appeal as a first-touchdown scorer. 

Check out our NFL picks for more Week 2 analysis, including Jason Logan's Colts vs. Chiefs prediction for Sunday, Sept. 20.

Best Colts vs Chiefs anytime touchdown picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Pick Kalshi
Probability
 Colts Keenan Allen anytime touchdown 21%
 Chiefs Travis Kelce anytime touchdown 35%
 Colts Jonathan Taylor first touchdown scorer 18%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Colts touchdown pick: Keenan Allen

Kalshi probability: 21%

After spending plenty of time in the AFC West, Keenan Allen is a savvy veteran with plenty of experience facing longtime Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The now-Indianapolis Colts wideout has six career touchdown catches in 17 games against the Chiefs.

Meanwhile, Kansas City's secondary got weaker this offseason after trading both of its starting corners to the Los Angeles Rams.

Allen is a big-bodied receiver who is one of the best route runners in the league. Allen will become Daniel Jones' favorite target in goal-to-goal scenarios, and I love this 4.73x payout. 

Chiefs touchdown pick: Travis Kelce

Kalshi probability: 35%

Give me Travis Kelce's anytime touchdown up to 40%.

This is partially a fade of Indy's weak defensive spine. Colts linebacker Jaylon Carlies had a failing coverage grade in Week 1, according to Pro Football Focus, while rookie safety A.J. Haulcy's coverage grade was even worse.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has always found creative ways to get Kelce the ball, whether it be on a tight end screen or another gadget play. I could see Reid "getting in his bag" on Sunday with Kansas City lacking game-breakers out wide.

First touchdown scorer pick: Jonathan Taylor 

Kalshi probability: 18%

Jonathan Taylor has led the NFL in rushing touchdowns twice and remains Indy's bell cow behind one of the league's better offensive lines.

Taylor scored the first touchdown in Week 1 and finished with two scores against a Baltimore defensive front that I rate higher than Kansas City's.

If the Colts get into scoring range early, expect Taylor to get the first opportunity to finish the drive.

Colts vs Chiefs touchdown combo

Kenneth Walker

Jonathan Taylor 

The Chiefs' offseason addition of Kenneth Walker III already looks like a strong move after Week 1. The reigning Super Bowl MVP scored three touchdowns (two rushing and one receiving) against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football.

Walker has quickly emerged as one of Kansas City's top offensive weapons and should continue to see plenty of touches under offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.

Taylor gives Indianapolis its best chance to punish Kansas City if Steve Spagnuolo gets aggressive with his pressure packages. If the Chiefs commit extra defenders to getting after Jones, one crease could be all Taylor needs to turn a run into six.

Geoff Clark's NFL 2026 Transparency Record
  • TD picks: 5-5, -1.07 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Geoff Clark
Betting Analyst

A gambler first and a writer second, Geoff's favorite sports to bet on, listed in order, include the NFL, NBA, PGA Tour, college basketball, college football, MLB and horse racing. As a Saratoga, N.Y., transplant living in Long Beach, Calif., Geoff is most active on the prediction markets. The native New Yorker stays loyal to his childhood teams, the Yankees, Giants, Knicks and Rangers. Clark added St. John's University basketball to his favorite teams after graduating from school in 2008 with a bachelor's degree in sports management. Geoff has been writing and podcasting in sports betting media since 2019 with stops at USA TODAY and Fox News, and TV appearances on VSIN. 

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