A whole lot is aligning for a defensive slugfest on Sunday Night Football, and we're breaking it down with our Colts vs. Chiefs expert picks.
The Chiefs, who are fresh off an opening-week prime-time win when Kenneth Walker erupted, will surely lean on their stud running back again, and the Colts should do the same with Jonathan Taylor.
It all begins tonight at 8:20 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo, and our experts are here to help with your NFL picks.
Colts vs Chiefs expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Under 46.5 |
52% |
 Josh Inglis: Alec Pierce touchdown |
22% |
 Joe Osborne: Under 46.5 |
52% |
 Jon Metler: Chiefs -6.5 |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60 — including the NFL!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Jason Logan’s expert pick: Under 46.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
The Indianapolis Colts found themselves trailing big to Baltimore in Week 1, forcing them to play faster and abandon the run (37.7% run rate).
The Colts need this attack to flow through running back Jonathan Taylor, who had a great opener despite being invisible in the fourth quarter.
Quarterback Daniel Jones struggled against Baltimore’s blitz, taking two sacks and seven QB hits while completing 19 of 31 passes and averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt. He was the most pressured QB in Week 1.
Jones posted similar numbers against the Kansas City Chiefs' blitz-happy defense in Week 12 last season. Meanwhile, Kansas City wrecked Denver’s top-rated protection for four sacks and the eighth-best pressure rate on MNF.
As for Eric Bieniemy and the Chiefs' offense, it ran at the fourth-highest rate on Monday, picking up 5.8 yards per carry and eating up almost 34 minutes of TOP with a patient approach.
For Jason Logan's complete Sunday Night Football analysis, head over to his Colts vs. Chiefs prediction.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Alec Pierce touchdown
Price: 22% at Kalshi
Remember when we got Kenneth Walker at close to even money? Not anymore. The Chiefs' players are hard to back at their current prices.
However, the market is low on the Colts, who are giant dogs in this game despite the Chiefs playing on a short week. This Alec Pierce price is also well off fair, from 4.5x to a fair of 3.4x. Pierce exited early in Week 1 but came back and played close to 90% of the snaps in the second half. This is still a K.C. secondary that had plenty of turnover from the previous year, and although Bo Nix and the Broncos couldn't figure it out, there should be plenty of negative game script for Jones to keep chucking the ball.
If Pierce plays average in this game, this price will never appear again.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Under 46.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Kansas City’s defense held Denver to 10 points and 3.7 yards per play in Week 1, continuing elite play at home, where they allowed only 15.6 points per game last season.
Indianapolis struggled to move the football at home in Week 1, despite being forced into an aggresive game script for most of the contest. Last season’s overtime meeting between these teams produced just 43 points. Ten of Kansas City’s last 12 games and eight of its previous 10 at home stayed below 46.5.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Chiefs -6.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
With this number staying below the 7-point mark, I'm definitely laying the points with the Chiefs at -6.5 and 51%, as I make them closer to an 8-point favorite in this matchup.
We saw Walker rush for 173 yards in Week 1, and I don't expect much to change here. Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith should be able to dominate the Colts' defensive line, get to the second level, and create cutback lanes for the explosive Walker.
The Colts' offense is better when playing from ahead, but as a big underdog, they could be forced to move away from Taylor. That would put Jones in an uncomfortable position, especially against a blitz-heavy Steve Spagnuolo defense that should be able to pressure him into more turnover-worthy throws than Indianapolis would prefer.
How to watch Colts vs Chiefs
| Location | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo. |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
