The Milwaukee Brewers face the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday night with the visitors priced at a 67% win probability as I make my Brewers vs. Orioles predictions.
Jacob Misiorowski has developed into one of baseball's most dominant starters, and Milwaukee gets a favorable pitching matchup against Brandon Young.
My MLB picks for Sept. 20 back the Brewers on the run line while expecting another low-scoring game at Camden Yards
Who will win Brewers vs Orioles today: Brewers -1.5
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I'm taking the Milwaukee Brewers to cover the run line up to 55%.
The guy on the mound for the Brewers is quite good, as Jacob Misiorowski enters Sunday with a 1.89 ERA and 2.08 xERA.
Misiorowski ranks in the 99th percentile or better in xERA, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and fastball velocity, giving the Baltimore Orioles very few obvious paths to sustained offense. Particularly concerning for the O's is the strikeout stuff, with Baltimore rising to fifth in whiff rate over the last three weeks.
Brandon Young has been solid with a 3.65 ERA, but his 4.42 xERA is considerably less impressive. The most direct route to slowing down the Brew Crew's offense is with an elite groundball profile. Young is just average in such metrics. I envision Milwaukee's offense getting to him sooner than later while Miz controls the game.
COVERS INTEL: Miz enters Sunday with a 38.2% strikeout rate while allowing a barrel on just 3.8% of batted balls, ranking among MLB's elite in both categories.
Brewers vs Orioles Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (52%)
Brewers vs Orioles home run prediction: Jackson Chourio (18%)
Jackson Chourio owns a .475 xSLG with a 12.4% barrel rate this season and has hit 47% of his batted balls at 95 mph or harder. He's developed into one of the Brewers' most consistent sources of loud contact.
Young has kept his overall barrel rate relatively low, but hitters have still produced a .406 xSLG against him, and his lack of elite swing-and-miss stuff means Chourio should get opportunities to put the ball in play.
For more props, head over to our Brewers vs. Orioles prop picks.
- ML/RL picks: 53-49, +9.25 units
- Over/Under picks: 58-42, +18.30 units
Brewers vs Orioles weather
There will be a 10-mph wind on a 77-degree day, with only a 25% chance of precipitation.
Brewers vs Orioles odds
- Moneyline: Brewers 66% | Orioles 44%
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 | Orioles +1,5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5| Under 7.5
How to watch Brewers vs Orioles and game info
| Location | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Sunday, September 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (15-5, 1.89 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Brandon Young (9-4, 3.65 ERA) |
Brewers vs Orioles latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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