Sunday Fun Day! No scaries, just good vibes!
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Sept. 20, including why Yordan Alvarez is going to pop off against Martin Perez.
We have so much more to cover in today's MLB player props market, so let's dive in.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Munetaka Murakami |
Over 0.5 hits | -127 |
 Dominic Canzone |
Over 0.5 home runs Over 0.5 doubles |
+444 +239 |
 Yordan Alvarez |
Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI | -153 |
Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 hits (-127)
Pipe down, I am aware of how cold Chicago White Sox rookie Munetaka Murakami has been at the dish, but hear me out.
For starters, the first baseman owns the No. 1 rating on Batters-Box (min. 100 at-bats). When elite this season, he records a hit nearly 62% of the time. That is a 73-game sample size.
Not only that, the South Side slugger covers over 70% of Detroit Tigers right-hander Troy Melton’s arsenal.
Here is where it gets mouthwatering. Melton has struggled against left-handed hitters all season, especially lately. The last 60 he has faced are producing a 46.5% hard-hit rate, 11.6% barrel rate, and over a 60% elevation rate. Those hitters also own a .368 xBA, .726 xSLG, and .387 xwOBA.
Since manager Will Venable gave him a day off the other day, he has done everything but record a double since Thursday.
Take this down to -145.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DSN, CHSN
Dominic Canzone Over 0.5 home runs (+444) & Over 0.5 doubles (+239)
There is no reason to pay above $1.20 for Seattle Mariners slugger Dominic Canzone to go Over 1.5 bases when we are backing him with the expectation of extra bases. I bet half a unit on both.
If you want to take his Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI prop at plus money, be my guest. However, this is how I will attack the highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box's current season ratings.
Canzone enters Sunday with a .482 SLG and .224 ISO, generating a 47% hard-hit rate and 12.5% barrel rate. He faces the day's worst-rated pitcher, Colorado Rockies right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been allowing left-handed hitters to make a ton of hard contact.
At home this season, left-handed hitters are posting nearly a 48% hard-hit rate and more than a 60% elevation rate against Sugano.
Sprinkle the two props, or take the 3+ H+R+RBI.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, SEAM
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-153)
Pay the juice or take the Over 2.5, but the trends for this prop are too good to pass up.
Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez has surpassed 1.5 hits + runs + RBI more than 75% of the time when he owns an elite rating on Batters-Box this season. That’s a 33-game elite-rating sample size.
Alvarez enters Sunday owning a .600 SLG and .343 ISO, while producing a 53% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate over his last 10 games. This afternoon, he draws Atlanta Braves southpaw Martin Perez, whose pitch mix Alvarez covers 100%.
Against left-handed pitchers this season, Alvarez’s batting average does dip, but he still owns a .500 SLG and .833 OPS. Perez has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing the last 60 he has faced to own a .409 xBA, .563 xSLG, and .425 xwOBA.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SCHN, BravesVsn
- Prop picks: 519-1015, +10.70u
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
