Week 2's edition of Sunday Night Football brings a compelling AFC matchup as the Indianapolis Colts face off against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sept. 20, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium.
Headlined by two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes, my Colts vs. Chiefs prop picks break down the best value spots for the prime-time clash on NBC, while our broader NFL picks offer a full Colts vs. Chiefs prediction courtesy of Jason Logan.
Best Colts vs Chiefs props
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes Over 224.5 passing yards |
51% |
 Alec Pierce Under 2.5 receptions |
45% |
| Tyquan Thornton Over 14.5 receiving yards |
54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Colts vs Chiefs prop pick #1: Patrick Mahomes Over 224.5 passing yards
I'm "buying low" on Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and I'm willing to take the Over up to 227.5 passing yards against the Indianapolis Colts. Mahomes' 284.4 passing yards per game is the highest mark in NFL history.
Mahomes' passing prop was listed at 225.5 last week vs. the Broncos, but a run-heavy game script helped keep him below that number. The superstar gunslinger only needed to throw for 184 yards and finished with one of the shortest aDOTs in the NFL against a Denver defense with a much stronger secondary and pass rush than Indy.
With the Chiefs down several key pieces on defense, Mahomes could be forced into a more pass-heavy approach on SNF. He also threw for a season-high 352 yards in last year's 23-20 overtime win over Indy, which came after the Colts traded for Pro Bowl corner Sauce Gardner.
Colts vs Chiefs prop pick #2: Alec Pierce Under 2.5 receptions
Fading Alec Pierce's reception prop is worth a look until it trades above 50%.
The Colts receiver runs mostly vertical routes, and while he's one of the league's better pass catchers on contested deep balls, his aDOT ranked second-highest in the NFL last season, which actually lends itself to the Under.
Pierce is primarily used on shot plays downfield and played just 59.3% of the Colts' offensive snaps in Week 1 after dealing with a foot injury throughout training camp.
Meanwhile, Denver had little success through the air against Kansas City last week, and Indianapolis should make a concerted effort to establish Jonathan Taylor on the ground after neglecting him early against Baltimore in Week 1.
Daniel Jones has also struggled against the blitz, something Steve Spagnuolo is no stranger to dialing up, so expect Jones to have little time to let deep routes develop with his highest-paid WR.
Colts vs Chiefs prop pick #3: Tyquan Thornton Over 14.5 receiving yards
As long as Chiefs WR Tyquan Thornton's receiving prop stays below 18 yards, I'm in.
Thornton gained at least 19 receiving yards in eight of his 14 games last season, and he also led the NFL with a massive 26.8-yard aDOT, eight yards higher than Pierce's mark. With that kind of downfield usage, one reception could be enough to get him past this number.
Additionally, Thornton played 68.1% of Kansas City's offensive snaps in Week 1 after logging just a 38.3% snap share last season.
- Prop picks: 4-2, +1.65 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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