Raiders vs Chiefs Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets for NFL Week 13

Logan's Best Bet: Brock Bowers has been at his best with Aidan O’Connell under center, and with the QB back this week, we expect a big game from the rookie tight end.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Nov 29, 2024 • 14:27 ET • 4 min read
Information icon

This article contains predictions for an old game!

Latest NFL Picks
Brock Bowers Las Vegas Raiders NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers gestures after a first down.

The NFL’s version of Thanksgiving leftovers is a standalone Friday matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs.

Las Vegas is expected to have Aidan O’Connell back under center, which has my Raiders vs. Chiefs predictions eyeing up rookie tight end Brock Bowers.

I dissect the spread, total, and props for this AFC West war and give my best NFL picks for this afternoon's showdown. 

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 pm EST from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, with the game airing on Prime Video. 

Raiders vs Chiefs predictions

Who will win Raiders vs Chiefs?

Whelp, with a spread this big, this section writes itself. Kansas City is laying almost two touchdowns at home in a game Raiders coach Antonio Pierce dubbed a meeting between “the best team in football against the worst team in football”.

Going back to 1985, favorites of -13 or higher are 424-62-1 SU — an 87% win rate for those beefy faves.

The Chiefs have found themselves in closer games this season and nearly got knocked off as an 11-point chalk against Carolina last week. On the year, the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS when laying 6.5 points or more, but they should win this one outright.

My best bet
Brock Bowers Over 6.5 receptions (-106 at FanDuel)

My analysis
Brock Bowers is having a fantastic rookie season in Sin City and has been at his best when Aidan O’Connell is taking snaps.

O’Connell, who was out with a broken thumb, is expected to be under center for the first time since October 20 when the Las Vegas Raiders head to Arrowhead Stadium on Friday. He’s played in only four games for the Raiders in 2024, and Bowers has been at his busiest with AOC making throws.

In O’Connell’s last three starts — spanning Weeks 5 through 7 — Bowers drew 12, 10, and 14 targets, panning out to eight, nine, and 10 receptions. That’s a significant spike in involvement compared to his targets/receptions before and after O’Connell was at QB.

Bowers is on the field for almost every offensive snap (second most on the team) and has also benefitted from the change at offensive coordinator, with the Raiders firing OC Luke Getsy and handing the keys to Scott Turner the past two weeks. 

Las Vegas has been much more aggressive under Turner, and Bowers has seen 16 and 10 balls his way for 13 and four receptions in losses to the Dolphins and Broncos (with Gardner Minshew at QB). Given the big spread for Week 13, the Silver and Black will be playing from behind which means plenty of passing from AOC and this offense.

The matchup also sets up for a busy day from Bowers, taking on a Kansas City Chiefs defense that’s been beaten up by tight ends. 

Kansas City has allowed the most yardage and the second-most receptions to TEs this season. Bowers caught five of five targets his way against KC in Week 8 — the game immediately following O’Connell’s thumb injury.

Not all Week 13 player projections are as giddy about Bowers’ receptions as I am, with some models short of five catches. However, most forecasts come in at 6+ catches, with one projection at 6.6 receptions.

Raiders vs Chiefs same-game parlay

Brock Bowers 7+ receptions

Jakobi Meyers 6+ receptions

Chiefs moneyline

Bowers is happy to have AOC back and faces a Chiefs defense giving it up to rival tight ends.

Under new playcaller Scott Turner, the Raiders are chucking it, and player projections are very positive for Meyers, who had 10 receptions last week.

We’ll pour a little sugar on this parlay with the Chiefs to win outright. Kansas City has had trouble covering bigger spreads, so we'll avoid the points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Best Raiders vs Chiefs bonus

Get $150 in bonus bets when you win with FanDuel!

New users can create an account at FanDuel and place your first bet of $5+ on the NFL, and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins!

Sign up now at FanDuel Sportsbook, or learn more with our comprehensive FanDuel review.


More Raiders vs Chiefs picks from Covers


Raiders vs Chiefs odds

Raiders vs Chiefs live odds

Raiders vs Chiefs opening odds

  • Spread: Las Vegas +13.5 | Kansas City -13.5
  • Moneyline: Las Vegas +550 | Kansas City -800
  • Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel.

Raiders vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Kansas City opened as a 13.5-point home chalk for this Friday game and has come down to -12.5 with some interest in the Raiders. Covers Consensus shows 55% of spread picks taking the points with Las Vegas.

  • The Over/Under hit the board at 42.5 points and has remained there for the most part. Covers Consensus shows 68% of picks taking the Over.

  • This short week puts Kansas City in a schedule squeeze, with the Chiefs playing five games in a 25-day window, thanks to their Monday night matchup with Tampa Bay back in Week 9.

Raiders vs Chiefs betting trend to know

The Chiefs are 18-2 SU but just 8-11-1 ATS (42.5%) when giving more than a touchdown in a divisional game since 2018 (when Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs.

How to watch Raiders vs Chiefs

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Date: Friday, 11-29, 2024
Kickoff: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Amazon Prime

Raiders vs Chiefs latest injuries

Raiders vs Chiefs weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

Recent Picks

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo