The fourth time around is a crucial point in many situations.
If you visit a bar on four occasions in one month, you’re a “regular”.
A fourth date is “shit or get off the pot” time in a relationship.
If you wear sweatpants for four days in one week, you’ve given up.
And kid No. 4 means a minivan (and maybe a vasectomy?).
Week 4 of the NFL season is also an important landmark.
This is the point in the schedule at which we can start making educated assumptions about teams, players, and coaches. It’s also when we have just enough information to be dangerous... to ourselves.
NFL Week 4 odds widen the gap between bookies and bettors. Traditionally, underdogs cover at a higher rate through the first three weeks of action (56% ATS since 2010), but that success against the spread starts to decline come Week 4.
No longer are overreactions to early-season results or offseason opinions going to sway the line drastically. You need to scratch and claw for every half-point hook and hold on tight once RedZone hits the “Witching Hour”.
Let’s be ready for war in four. Here are my best NFL picks for Week 4.
Last week: 1-2
Season: 4-5 for -1.57 units
NFL Week 4 predictions and picks
Seahawks +1.5
Buccaneers +3.5
Chiefs +2.5
Seattle Seahawks (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Best bet: Seahawks +1.5
(-118 at DraftKings)
Thursday games are always a squirrely spot, with teams scrambling to game plan on the short week. In those tight turnarounds, I tend to lean toward the teams with the simpler setup.
And to me, that’s the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks finished the back half of 2024 as one of the top defensive teams and picked up where they left off in Mike Macdonald’s schemes this September. Seattle enters Week 4 as a Top-10 stop unit in many advanced metrics, including EPA allowed and PFF grading.
The core of this group is the defensive line, which is generating a ton of pressure on rival passers without needing additional rushers. Macdonald is blitzing at the second-lowest rate in the land and mixes up zone and man coverage to plug up the passing lanes, generating five interceptions so far.
Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray had mixed results versus Macdonald’s defense last season. He passed for 544 total yards but threw three interceptions and boasted a passer rating of 79.0 in two meetings.
The Cardinals just lost RB1 James Conner to a season-ending ankle injury and are playing without starting offensive linemen Paris Johnson and Will Hernandez, who are still questionable on the short week. That’s a huge hit to the run game and leaves this Arizona attack looking one-dimensional.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)
Best bet: Buccaneers +3.5
(-110 at bet365)
This spread is one giant Jordan Davis sausage finger away from looking very different in Week 4.
The Philadelphia Eagles' blocked field goal not only kept the Eagles undefeated, but Davis’ touchdown return that followed delivered one of the greatest covers — or all-time bad beats — I’ve seen in 20-plus years of football betting.
The look-ahead line for this NFC heavyweight bout was Philly -2.5 before the start of the season. The official opener on Sunday night was Eagles -3, and that’s been run up to -3.5 following Mike Evans’ hamstring injury and a wonky win for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3.
Despite Evans’ status, however, Tampa Bay could be at its healthiest in Week 4. Receiver Chris Godwin is on track to play his first game of 2025, and top OL Tristan Wirfs is also expected to return. Taking some of the sting out of Evans’ possible absence is the play of rookie WR Emeka Egbuka.
Tampa Bay has the firepower to trade shots with Philadelphia and the defense to take away the Eagles’ biggest strength: the run game.
Through three games, the Buccaneers are among the top run-stopping units in the league. They sit No. 1 in EPA allowed per handoff, No. 2 in opponent success rate per run, and No. 4 in PFF run defense grading.
We saw the L.A. Rams have success versus the Eagles’ ground game in Week 3, stuffing Philly to 3.2 yards per carry. That had the Eagles playing from behind and forced 32 passes — a huge jump compared to the past two weeks — which didn’t allow them to dominate time and possession like they normally do.
Raymond James Stadium has been a tough place to play for Philly in recent years. The Eagles are 1-3 SU and ATS at Tampa since 2021, and they are already worried about the infamous Florida heat.
The Eagles are reportedly traveling to Tampa a day early on Friday and may practice on Saturday to acclimate to the Sunshine State soup. Sunday’s forecast calls for “feels like” temperatures as high as 106 degrees, thanks to 64% humidity.
Pack the baby powder and give me the points with the home side.
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)
Best bet: Chiefs +2.5
(+100 at bet365)
With none of the other Week 4 underdogs really instilling confidence, I jump on the rare chance to take the Kansas City Chiefs as pups — a 67.5% ATS rainmaker since 2018. Kansas City is a cheap +2.5 hosting the Baltimore Ravens this Sunday.
In fact, I took KC -1.5 on the look-ahead line when the schedule came out back in May. That early bet was based on the schedule squeeze facing the Ravens, who travel to Arrowhead on a short week after facing Detroit on Monday night. That situational angle is still at work five months later.
Now we add to the mix a dinged-up Baltimore defense that just got tuned for 426 yards and 38 points against Detroit. Through three games, the Ravens' stop unit ranks 27th in EPA allowed per play and 29th in opponent success rate. They’re not getting stops on third down, and the red-zone defense ranks in the Bottom 5 in the league.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have their own foibles to start 2025. The offense has sputtered with some key WRs missing, and this once-feared defense was flat, but the Chiefs started to look like themselves — on both sides of the ball — in the second half of Sunday’s win over the Giants.
There is massive room for improvement for Kansas City, while the Ravens appear to be regressing. Despite the 1-2 record, the Chiefs can hang with the NFL’s elite, as evidenced in close losses to L.A. and Philadelphia.
Kansas City is 5-1 SU versus Baltimore since 2018, including 3-0 SU as the home team.
My NFL Underdogs column is 4-5 this season for -1.57 units.
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