Football fans aren’t in love with the Philadelphia Eagles’ “boring” offense, and neither is standout receiver A.J. Brown.
Philadelphia’s top target had some criticisms for his team’s run-heavy schemes and will have to “walk the walk” against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after “talking the talk” ahead of Week 4.
That makes Brown the focal point for my Eagles vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks on Sunday, September 28.
Eagles vs Buccaneers prediction
Eagles vs Buccaneers Best bet: A.J. Brown Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown had a breakout game versus the L.A. Rams in Week 3, catching six of 10 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown – helping spark an improbable comeback win last Sunday.
But in the two games prior – and for much of Week 3 – the Eagles’ playbook was run-centric, even when the ground game was failing to pick up yards. Brown’s participation dwindled, recording a total of six receptions on nine targets for just 35 yards in the first two weeks.
Against the Rams, Philly struggled to move the chains in the usual ways and quickly fell behind before being forced to throw the ball in the second half.
“I think it took too long as an offense to adjust and be more aggressive,” Brown told reporters this week. “When one thing's not working, let's not keep trying to bang our head on the wall and see if it'll work. Let's mix it up and do what we need to do."
Brown could be on to something, considering this Sunday’s opponent.
Tampa Bay is among the best run-stopping units in the NFL, ranking No. 1 in EPA allowed per handoff, No. 2 in opponent success rate per run, and No. 3 in run defense rating at PFF.
Tampa is, however, susceptible to the pass, sitting 20th in EPA allowed per dropback and 25th in opponent success rate per pass, while allowing nine completions of 20 or more yards through three games - despite playing some bottom-tier air attacks (Atlanta, Houston, N.Y. Jets).
Jalen Hurts is a big step up in QB competition for this Tampa defense, and the Bucs’ man-heavy coverage is ripe for the picking, as far as Brown is concerned. The Eagles’ WR1 historically draws a hefty workload against man-to-man and currently rates No. 12 among all receivers versus man coverage at PFF.
Week 4 NFL player props projections are positive for Brown. Those models range from 61 yards to a high of 76.5, with the bulk of those forecasts above 70 yards receiving. Brown missed last season’s run-in with the Buccaneers due to injury, but put in work with nine grabs on 14 targets for 131 yards receiving against Todd Bowles’ defense back in 2023.
Eagles vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Brown is one of the best versus man coverage, which the Bucs tend to lean on.
Bucky Irving scored on the Eagles last season and is a run-and-receiving threat.
The Bucs stay within the field goal with the help of some Florida heat.
Eagles vs Buccaneers SGP
- A.J. Brown Over 58.5 receiving yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
- Tampa Bay +3.5
Our big-ticket SGP: The ol' Tush Push-up
Cash in on “Tush Push” TDs while you still can. Adding a Hurts score bumps us way up to +1026.
Eagles vs Buccaneers SGP
- A.J. Brown Over 58.5 receiving yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
- Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
- Tampa Bay +3.5
Eagles vs Buccaneers odds
- Spread: Eagles -3.5 (-105) | Buccaneers +3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Eagles -194 | Buccaneers +162
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-102) | Under 44.5 (-120)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Eagles vs Buccaneers trend to know
Since Baker Mayfield took over as QB1 for the Bucs, Tampa Bay is 15-6 ATS as an underdog and 8-2 ATS when getting more than a field goal from bookmakers. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Eagles vs Buccaneers
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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