Even though their schedule hasn’t been the easiest, the Houston Texans’ 0-3 start to the season can’t be called anything but disappointing. Week 4 will provide them another opportunity to get on the board with their first win of the season, when they take on the 0-3 Tennessee Titans.
My Titans vs. Texans predictions will focus on both defensive lines, which should work in chorus with some mediocre play out of these offensive fronts to create a low-scoring game.
Read below for my free NFL picks for Sunday, September 28.
Titans vs Texans prediction
Titans vs Texans Best bet: Under 38.5 (-105)
It’s pretty hard to speak gently about the 0-3 Houston Texans, but if there’s one thing that can put it over the edge in this matchup, it’s the pass rush. It’s graded out as the second-best in football through three weeks, and Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson — ranked in the top 11 of all edge rushers — are to thank.
We know this Tennessee Titans offense is a work in progress with first-year signal-caller Cam Ward at the helm, but it extends beyond just the first-round pick. Tennessee has endured a poor start to the season for John Ojukwu at right tackle, and Kevin Zietler looks well past his prime at guard. That means the strong side should be open for business, and that should also mean Houston regains its form defensively.
This is a secondary that came into the season with sky-high expectations, but thus far there have been some clear disappointments and some big injuries — namely one to Derek Stingley, Jr. The good news is that he’s trending towards a return in this game, and that should at least cushion the blow left by the injury from Jimmie Ward.
Cam Ward isn’t all that comfortable these days in his own right, with his line looking awfully generous to opposing pass rushes, but Houston’s line hasn’t been much better. I foresee both quarterbacks dealing with a ton of pressure here, and that should help bring this game down to an ugly level. Neither team has been able to run the ball successfully, and while Houston’s offense is a clear cut above on paper, it’s hard to lay all these points. I’ll side with the Under.
Titans vs Texans same-game parlay
It’s not like Ward was the biggest runner in the world at Miami last year, but his line has forced him out of the pocket and into space to begin his NFL career. The first overall pick has rushed at least three times in his last two games for eight or more yards, and with the strength of this strong-side pass rush for Houston, I have to believe Ward will be looking to escape quite quickly.
I also like the matchup for his rookie receiver on the left side of the field against struggling free safety Calen Bullock and either Kamari Lassiter or Tremon Smith at corner. Neither of the three has come remotely close to the league average coverage grades according to Pro Football Focus — something that’s unsurprising given their history — and Elic Ayomanor has consistently seen the field for around 75% of the snaps with six targets per game on average.
Titans vs Texans SGP
- Under 38.5
- Cam Ward Over 7.5 rushing yards
- Elic Ayomanor Over 2.5 receptions
Our big-ticket SGP: Yards but no points
The other man who will be on the friendly side of the field to take on this Houston secondary is Calvin Ridley — a deep ball threat for many years in this league now. He is averaging 13.9 yards per catch, which is right in line with his career average, and he will draw a Texans team that has given up the second-most attempts of 20+ yards in the league this season.
This run defense looks more or less fine, however, giving up 4.1 yards per carry – and that should put a lid on the hot start Tony Pollard has had. The scat back has been held under 65 yards in two of his three games this season, and with edge rushers in the backfield immediately, I don’t like his chances of having a big day.
Titans vs Texans SGP
- Under 38.5
- Cam Ward Over 7.5 rushing yards
- Elic Ayomanor Over 2.5 receptions
- Tony Pollard Under 65.5 rushing yards
- Calvin Ridley Over 46.5 receiving yards
Titans vs Texans odds
- Spread: Tenneesee +7.5 | Houston -7.5
- Moneyline: Tennessee +331 | Houston -412
- Over/Under: Over 40 | Under 40
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Titans vs Texans trend to know
The Houston Texans have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.75 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Texans.
How to watch Titans vs Texans
| Location | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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