The Atlanta Falcons will look to recover from a stunning Week 3 defeat as they host the Washington Commanders in Week 4 action.
Atlanta looked awful in its 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers, and even without Jayden Daniels, I’m taking Washington to win outright in my Commanders vs. Falcons predictions.
Let’s dive deeper into the bets I like for this game in my free NFL picks for Sunday, September 28.
Commanders vs Falcons prediction
Commanders vs Falcons Best bet: Commanders moneyline (+106)
The loss of Jayden Daniels – who has been ruled out again in Week 4 as he recovers from a knee sprain – is a blow to the Washington Commanders offense, but far from a fatal one. It helps to have a competent backup quarterback, and that’s what Washington has in Marcus Mariota.
Mariota never got to the level of being an elite quarterback, but he’s always looked reasonably good on the field. For his career, the 31-year-old has completed 63% of his passes and thrown 98 touchdowns against 55 interceptions. He has also run for 19 career rushing touchdowns, including one last week against the Las Vegas Raiders.
I think oddsmakers are being a bit too severe in downgrading Washington. The Commanders put up 41 points against Las Vegas with Mariota in for the full game, more than some starting QBs will lead their teams to at any time this season.
The Atlanta Falcons comes into the game 1-2 and having lost by 30 to one of the worst teams in the league last weekend. It’s asking a lot for the Falcons to put things together quickly enough to beat a talented Washington team that still enjoys veteran leadership behind center. I’m taking the Commanders to win outright.
Commanders vs Falcons same-game parlay
Neither offense is primed for a huge day, though I have a lot more faith in the Commanders even with Mariota at the helm. That’s why I’m taking the Under, but still taking Mariota to hit a modest passing total of Over 204.5 yards – something he already did last week against the Raiders.
Commanders vs Falcons SGP
- Washington Commanders moneyline
- Under 43.5
- Marcus Mariota Over 204.5 passing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Mariota Matters!
Let’s double down on a solid performance out of Mariota, who is more than capable of putting up the numbers required to bring home this parlay.
Commanders vs Falcons SGP
- Washington Commanders moneyline
- Under 43.5
- Marcus Mariota Over 204.5
- Marcus Mariota Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Commanders vs Falcons odds
- Spread: Commanders -3 (-115) | Falcons +3 (-105)
- Moneyline: Commanders -160 | Falcons +135
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Commanders vs Falcons trend to know
Washington is 4-0 straight up in its last four games against Atlanta. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Falcons.
How to watch Commanders vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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