Week 4 in the NFL is headlined by a clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
This is a rare chance for bettors to get Patrick Mahomes as an underdog at home which is why my Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions are taking the points with K.C.
Here are my best NFL picks for this marquee matchup on Sunday, September 28.
Ravens vs Chiefs prediction
Ravens vs Chiefs Best bet: Chiefs +2.5 (-104)
The media has been very critical of the 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs, but the Baltimore Ravens are also 1-2 and haven't been any more impressive.
The Ravens collapsed in the fourth quarter in a Week 1 loss to the Bills. They had a blowout win against Cleveland in Week 2 but the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL and actually outgained the Ravens by 81 yards.
Now the Ravens head to Arrowhead Stadium on a short week after losing to the Lions on Monday night.
Baltimore's defense has been vulnerable and will be missing two starters on the line in Pro Bowl DT Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington. That's bad news against a Chiefs offense that finally came alive in the second half last Sunday in a 22-9 win against the Giants.
Tyquan Thornton broke out with five catches for 71 yards and with speedster Xavier Worthy returning to the lineup after missing multiple games, Patrick Mahomes has multiple weapons to stretch the field.
Betting trends should never be the crux when handicapping games. However, they are a factor to consider and Mahomes is 11-5 straight up and 12-3-1 against the spread as an underdog in his career.
Meanwhile, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has gone 1-4 in his career against the Chiefs, with the lone win coming by a single point. Take the home side with the points here.
Ravens vs Chiefs same-game parlay
Baltimore is last in the NFL in defensive rush success rate and has allowed 4.9 yards per carry. With injuries on the defensive line adding up, this is a good spot for the Chiefs to get their run game going.
Pacheco hasn't done much this year, which is why his rushing yards total is sitting at just 34.5. That said, he's still the most talented RB on the Chiefs roster and he's coming off a season-high 10 carries for 45 yards.
Derrick Henry rumbled for 169 yards in Baltimore's season opener before being contained by strong run defenses the last two weeks. The four-time All-Pro has an easier matchup this week against a Chiefs squad that is 29th in the league in defensive rush success rate and has been even worse when operating out of base personnel.
Ravens vs Chiefs SGP
- Chiefs +2.5
- Isiah Pacheco Over 34.5 rushing yards
- Derrick Henry Over 83.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Mahomes Carries Chiefs!
Mahomes had six carries for 57 yards against the Chargers in Week 1 before rushing for 66 yards on seven carries in Week 2. He tends to run more in bigger games and will be forced to make plays with his legs when Baltimore's coverage holds up.
Ravens vs Chiefs SGP
- Chiefs +2.5
- Isiah Pacheco Over 34.5 rushing yards
- Derrick Henry Over 83.5 rushing yards
- Patrick Mahomes Over 26.5 rushing yards
Ravens vs Chiefs odds
- Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-118) | Chiefs +2.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Ravens -148 | Chiefs +126
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 (-115) | Under 48.5 (-105)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Ravens vs Chiefs trend to know
The Chiefs are 11-5 SU and 12-3-1 ATS as an underdog with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Ravens vs Chiefs
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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