The Green Bay Packers are winners of four of their last five and are looking for revenge today as they travel to take on the Minnesota Vikings, who beat them 31-29 earlier in the season. FOX has the call from U.S. Bank Stadium beginning at 4:25 p.m. ET.
My Packers vs. Vikings predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, December 29 believe Green Bay is poised to snap Minnesota's eight-game winning streak.
Packers vs Vikings predictions
- Spread prediction: Packers +1 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline prediction: Packers moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under prediction: Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best Bet: Packers moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)
Packers vs Vikings moneyline prediction
The Packers are third in offensive DVOA on the year, and that mark comes with a great run-pass balance with them ranking fourth in rushing and third in passing. The Vikings rank just 14th overall while ranking 18th on the ground and 10th in the air.
Minnesota has the edge on defense at third overall, but the gap isn't as large as Green Bay currently ranks sixth.
This should play out in favor of Green Bay as the game goes on.
Packers vs. Vikings spread prediction
This market has bounced back and forth in recent days between either team being a small moneyline favorite and a 1-point favorite on the spread.
But the Packers have been the better team as of late, despite the Vikings having won eight straight, and that's why this game is a near pick 'em despite Minnesota playing at home.
Packers vs Vikings total prediction
This game sits at a total of 48.5 at most shops after they played to a 60-point total in the last game, and while that may seem low, it probably is not low enough.
Minnesota had jumped out to a 28-0 lead by the middle of the second quarter in the first matchup, and then Green Bay answered with 22 easy points in the fourth quarter as Minnesota was largely playing the possession game.
Green Bay has gone Over this total once in their last seven games and Minnesota has only allowed more than 24 points just once during this eight-game win streak.
My best bet
Packers moneyline (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Green Bay Packers defensive track record is worth highlighting here. They've allowed 20+ points just once in their last seven games and that was to the Detroit Lions, who has put up monster performances against the rest of the league.
Last week they held the Saints to the season's first shutout and held the Seahawks to just 13 the week prior, a team the Minnesota Vikings had surrendered 24 points to just last week.
Minnesota has been great in their own right, but they have picked on some bad offense as of late.
Last week they gave up 24 points to an injured Geno Smith, and before that they faced Caleb Williams, Kirk Cousins (who was immediately benched after), Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams again, Will Levis, Mac Jones, and Joe Flacco (who was also later benched).
Despite the weak competition, they still have allowed 20+ points in four of their last five games.
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Packers vs Vikings same-game parlay
Packers moneyline
Aaron Jones Under 63.5 rushing yards
Tucker Kraft Over 34.5 receiving yards
In the Green Bay passing attack, we should expect to see Tucker Kraft continue on his recent string of production. The second-year tight end now has averaged 54 yards per game in his last four after having gone over that mark just twice in his previous 11 games.
Christian Watson is questionable for the game after having not practiced all week, and the Vikings have been just league average against tight ends despite being stout everywhere else.
On the rushing side of things, Aaron Jones would likely love to run a good box score against his former team but that may be easier said than done.
Granted, he tallied 93 rushing yards in their first matchup, but again, the Vikings were playing in a very run-positive game script as they had jumped out to a very early 28-0 lead. Jones carried the ball 22 times as a result, and Jones has gone over the 63.5 mark just three times this year in the seven games he had 15 or less carries.
And those three instances came against the Falcons (16th in rush defense DVOA), the Lions (tenth), and the Giants (14th) and in the Lions game he tallied over a third of his yards on one 34 yard rush, and he has three 30+ yard rushes on the entire season.
The Packers rank eighth this year in rush defense DVOA, and they've allowed just one rush of more than 20 yards in their last five games which should alleviate that concern.
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Packers vs Vikings odds
Packers vs Vikings live odds
Packers vs Vikings opening odds
- Spread: Green Bay +1.5 | Minnesota -1.5
- Moneyline: Green Bay +100 | Minnesota -120
- Over/Under: Over 48.5 | Under 48.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Packers vs Vikings spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota's 10-4-1 record against the spread is good for the second-best cover rate on the year.
- Green Bay is not far behind at 9-6 ATS, and their cover rate of 60% is tied for the seventh-best mark on the year.
- The Vikings are 5-2 ATS at home this year (tied for second), while the Packers are 4-2 on the road (tied for sixth).
- Both Green Bay and Minnesota are 9-6 to the Under this year, putting them at a 60% rate that is good for the fourth-highest.
- Covers Consensus data is split 50/50 on an ATS pick for this game, while 67% are on the Over.
Packers vs Vikings betting trend to know
The Vikings are 5-2 to the Under at home compared to 4-4 on the road. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Vikings.
Packers vs Vikings game info
| Location: | U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-29-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Packers vs Vikings latest injuries
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