How is it Week 10 already? There’s no time to look behind because we're too busy looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
There will be some serious wind this week so check the reports before firing away.
Today, we’re riding with the OC change in Chicago, thinking outside the box when it comes to kicking in windy conditions, and hoping a Washington RB gets peppered with check-downs.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 10.
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Screaming Justin Herbert
Over the last three weeks, the Dolphins have played the Cardinals, Rams and Jets. None of those teams are in the Top 15 in the league in pass attempts per game, but averaged 43.7 pass attempts per contest, the second-highest mark in the league over that stretch. Now the Dolphins will face rookie QB Justin Herbert, who is tossing nearly 43 passes a game since Week 7, third-highest among all QBs.
With his pass attempt total set at 35.5, facing clear skies and low winds in the forecast, Herbert should have a great chance of hitting 36 pass attempts, something he has done in three consecutive weeks.
PREDICTION: Justin Herbert Over 35.5 pass attempts (-122)
Sitting 29th in points per game and 31st in yards per play, Chicago head coach Matt Nagy has handed the playing-calling duties over to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor ahead of Monday’s game against the Vikings.
Lazor was the OC in Cincinnati for two years, and his time there yielded an offense that ranked 26th and 29th in yards per game.
We aren’t expecting the new Bears’ play-caller to transform this Nick Foles-led offense into something it’s not, but we can assume that he is going to try to exploit the Minnesota secondary. The Vikings are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and have allowed 16 TDs to WRs, which is the most in the league.
With David Montgomery still in the league’s concussion protocol, we may see an even more lopsided passing game from the Bears. Allen Robinson has just one red-zone target since Week 7 and was limited in practice this week. This means we’re jumping on the Darnell Mooney money train and hitting Chicago’s No. 2, who has four red-zone targets and a TD over the last two weeks.
PREDICTION: Darnell Mooney Over 0.5 TDs (+300)
With Alex Smith set to take over the Washington offense in Week 10, one thing’s for sure: running back J.D. McKissic is going to be involved. Last week, McKissic saw 13 passes from Smith and ran 31 passing routes. His yardage total wasn’t huge (65 yards) but the volume is legit.
The QB and RB have developed a trust with one another this year, as McKissic drew eight targets in the only other game that Smith played this year. Smith loves his check-downs as he has been sacked eight times in 49 passes attempts this year.
McKissic is 3-1 O/U on his reception total and receiving yards over his last four games and could be in for a busy day against the Detroit Lions, who have gotten gouged by opposing RBs in consecutive weeks. We’d prefer his reception total at 3.5, but for the price (+124), we’re taking the 4.5.
PREDICTION: J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 receptions (+124) and Over 30.5 receiving yards (-112)
Two games this week are expected to have the worst weather conditions that the NFL has seen this year. Rain and winds of nearly 30 mph are expected in Cleveland and Green Bay this week. The Houston/Cleveland game total has dropped nine points while the Jacksonville/Green Bay game total has fallen to 49.5 after opening at 54.5.
One would think that field goals are hard to come by in poor conditions, but the fact of the matter is that when the field gets smaller in the red zone, points are at a premium and teams are willing to be conservative and kick short field goals.
The Las Vegas/Cleveland game in Week 8 had 20-plus mph winds. That game featured just three punts and had seven field goal attempts in a 16-6 Raiders’ victory.
PREDICTION: JAC/GB Over 2.5 field goals + HOU/CLE Over 2.5 field goals (+120)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
The Luton Edge
We’ve been eyeing this market, waiting for it to open and we are giddier than school girls with the opening line.
In his first NFL game last week, Jaguars rookie QB Jake Luton had a rushing total of just 6.5 yards and it took him until his team’s final offensive play to hit the Over. Luton showed off his skills on the ground with a 13-yard trot into the endzone, making a couple of Houston defenders look juvenile in the process.
With his Week 10 rushing total at 9.5 yards, we’re hoping the green QB takes that TD feeling into this week. 9.5 yards could be a one-and-done and with the Jaguars sitting as near two-TD underdogs, Luton and the Jags should be in pass-mode for the majority of the game.
PREDICTION: Jake Luton Over 9.5 rushing yards (-115)
Call of Jeudy
Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy has commanded the No. 1 receiver role in Denver this year and has had a 23% target share over his past three games. Jeudy missed Wednesday’s practice, but got in a limited practice Thursday. Coach Vic Fangio told reporters Friday that he expects the receiver to suit up against the Raiders and their No. 26 DVOA pass defense per Football Outsiders.
Jeudy is coming off his best game as a professional, as the former Alabama WR saw 14 of QB Drew Lock’s 45 passes last week. That makes back-to-back games that the 15th-overall pick in this year’s draft has seen double-digit targets.
With a game total of 51 against a defense that’s averaging 176 yards against opposing WRs per game, we love Jeudy’s matchup and his yardage total even more (51.5).
PREDICTION: Jerry Jeudy Over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
Set It Goff
The Seattle secondary has been one of the biggest stories of the year with how epically bad it’s been. They’re coming off a game where Josh Allen torched them for over 400 yards and four TDs. This week, they will be without DBs Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar against Jared Goff and the Rams.
Goff hasn’t had a lot of positive attention this year, but the Rams’ QB is surprisingly 7-3 O/U on his passing totals. Bettors are never going to get a good number against the Seahawks, but with the absences of two of their better coverage corners, Goff could top his yardage total with his array of weapons in the passing game.
The Sean McVay padawan is averaging 268.1 yards this year and threw for over 300 yards against Miami’s No. 8 pass defense last week. Opposing QBs are averaging an absurd 372.5 passing yards against the decade’s worst pass defense, who now have to deal with the fast conditions of SoFi Field.
PREDICTION: Jared Goff Over 289.5 Passing yards (-115)
A Baker’s Deuce
Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield has been activated from the team’s COVID/reserve list and will be ready to take on Houston and its generous secondary. The Texans are giving up 2.2 passing TDs per game this year and have conceded nine total touchdowns through the air over their last three games
Mayfield has played four sub-.500 teams this year, with 11 TDs. The absence of receiver Odell Beckham is not lost on us, but the Browns will get TE Austin Hooper back for Week 10, which should help in ODB’s absence.
Even if Cleveland gets the running game going again with Nick Chubb likely getting back in the lineup, Mayfield can still use that to his advantage at home as the Texans have allowed 10 passing TDs in four road games this year.
We’re getting a great number on this prop but it’s likely due to high-to-extreme wind conditions. We still like the play - especially with Chubb and G Wyatt Teller joining the running game - but downgrading it to a half-unit play.
PREDICTION: Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing TDs (+112, half-unit)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
A Song of Ice and Kyler
Once you get on the Kyler Murray rushing prop train, it ain’t going to stop. The Arizona QB leads all QBs in rushing this year (by nearly 80 yards) and only seven other players in the league have more rushing yards than him. Watching Murray scramble is one of the most exciting plays in football right now (other than Russell Wilson deep balls) and it's even better when you win money on it.
Murray’s rushing total can be found at 51.5 yards, which is the highest mark of his career. The former first-overall pick has topped that number in six of his eight games this year and is playing in a likely shootout game with a total of 56.5 points this week against the Buffalo Bills.
PREDICTION: Kyler Murray Over 51.5 rushing yards (-117)
The Moore Tour
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have the league’s No.2 DVOA pass defense per Football Outsiders, but Drew Brees tossed four TDs against them last week and Daniel Jones missed a handful of home runs two weeks ago. This is an overrated secondary that is facing one of the league’s most talented receiver trios in Carolina.
Now the Bucs are dealing with a mid-week practice absence from starting corner Carlton Davis which is great news for WRs Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel.
With Christian McCaffrey out and not stealing targets, the Panthers’ receivers could be in for a big day. Looking at their receiving totals, Moore’s number stands out as the receiver is averaging 71.1 yards per game but his total sits at 54.5.
Anderson could likely draw No.1 CB Jamel Dean, leaving Moore with Davis’ replacement on the outside if he does miss Sunday’s game. Moore has just 73 receiving yards over his past two games but he has topped 55 yards receiving in all but one game that CMC wasn’t in the lineup.
PREDICTION: D.J. Moore Over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
D.K. Metcalf has been an almost automatic Over this year in receiving yards prop as he is a ridiculous 8-1 O/U on the year. If you want to play him this week at 74.5 yards and against Rams’ CB Jalen Ramsey, it’s still a great play. But we are looking at another angle in one of Metcalf’s toughest CB matchups this year.
When Seattle faced the Cardinals in Week 7, Metcalf drew Arizona CB Patrick Peterson and saw just five targets, grabbing two balls for his lowest production of the season. It wasn’t the receiver’s fault, as Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll used D.K. as a decoy and peppered fellow WR Tyler Lockett with 20 targets, which he turned into 15 catches, 200 yards and three TDs.
Sunday’s game against Ramsey and the Rams may follow that same game script. Lockett hasn’t gone over four catches or 40 yards in back-to-back weeks and we know Wilson will do what he can to keep his number two happy and involved.
PREDICTION: Tyler Lockett Over 4.5 receptions (-125) and Over 0.5 TDs (+115)
Generic and Color
John Brown has missed some time this year but has been explosive when featured in the offense. He grabbed eight balls for 99 yards last week against Seattle and has reached 70 yards receiving in each game he has seen at least six targets.
Finally healthy, Brown could be in for a big game on the outside against a Cardinals secondary that could be without their No. 2 CB in Dre Kirkpatrick, who missed week 9. Both Brown and Allen are coming off their best professional games in the NFL last week and will look to carry over that chemistry into a tasty matchup for the Bills’ receiver.
PREDICTION: John Brown Over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Only one team has allowed more passing TDs than the Tennessee Titans this year. The Mike Vrabel-led defense is giving up over two passing TDs per game and 275 yards through the air this year. The Titans will get CB Adoree’ Jackson back on Thursday versus the Colts, but Jackson has yet to play this year and may not be getting a full array of snaps for the struggling Tennessee secondary.
Indianapolis QB Philip Rivers was playing his best football of the year before hitting a tough Baltimore defense last week. In his three games prior to the Ravens, the veteran QB was averaging 24.3 completions at a 66.8 percent completion rate, while also throwing for 292 yards and six TDs.
The Colts are surprisingly one of the league’s worst rushing teams and Indy may rely on the passing game more in order to keep up with a Titans offense that is scoring 29 points per game on the season and 33 at home.
PREDICTION: Philip Rivers Over 266.5 passing yards (-113)
Scoring in 15 Minutes
With Week 10’s highest total of 56, points are expected in bunches in a game featuring Kyler Murray and Josh Allen. The Bills hung 44 points on the Seahawks last week and scored in every quarter in the process. That prop would have paid savvy backers +160, but “to score in every quarter” is not a well-known prop bet. It should be.
The Bills are scoring in 81 percent of their quarters this year and have hit this plus-money prop three times themselves. Their defense has also been leaky all year and opponents are scoring in 81 percent of the quarters including three “to score in every quarter” wins. Those defensive numbers also include two games against the Jets.
The Arizona defense may be a middle-of-the-pack DVOA defense, but if you take away games against Washington, New York Jets and Dallas, then the Cardinals are allowing points in 85 percent of their quarters. The offense has also cashed this prop in two of their last five games and has scored in at least three-quarters of every game this year.
We’re putting a half-unit on each side and expecting a shootout between two of the league’s most exciting QBs.
PREDICTION: Arizona (+145) AND Buffalo (+165) to score in every quarter — YES
Philadelphia’s Travis Fulgham may be the MVP of the Eagles’ offense to date this year. The former sixth-round WR has topped 72 yards in four straight games after getting a look in Week 4. He has averaged over 10 targets since Week 5 and has at least five grabs per game since then. Injuries are a huge factor in his new-found role, but the talent and route running are also impressive. Fulgham is a staple of this offense.
The Eagles will face the New York Giants in Week 10, a team that Fulgham posted a 5/73/0 on just three weeks ago. The G-men let Washington’s Terry McLaurin go for over 100 yards last week as the receiver had no problem turning his eight targets into seven grabs, 117 yards and a TD. The Giants own the league’s No. 28 passing defense per Football Outsiders.
Even with Alshon Jeffrey returning to practice, Fulgham is this week’s triple-down option in a plus matchup that actually has playoff implications for two sub-500 teams.
PREDICTION: Travis Fulgham Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115), Over 4.5 receptions (-120) and anytime TD (+140)
Primetime Six-point Teaser Time
With Unders and underdogs hitting more consistently under the lights of primetime, why not put all three games on a teaser to try and buck our 2020 struggles for primetime games?
Getting the Colts by a TD against a Titans team that failed to cover against the Broncos, Jaguars, Vikings and lost outright to the Bengals is the right play on Thursday. Philip Rivers has been playing well and should be able to keep it close against the Titans No. 24th DVOA pass defense. Colts +7.
We have no problem taking the Ravens as a near pick ‘em against a New England team that almost lost to the Jets and will be on a short week. Baltimore looked good last week after coming out of the bye with a dominant 24-10 win against the Colts as a one-point underdog. If Flacco can move the ball against the Pats defense, Lamar Jackson should shred on SNF. Ravens -1.
We cannot trust the Bears at +8.5 and teasing through the zero is apparently a no-no. Well, the Chicago offense is among the worst in the league and is scoring just 16.7 points per game in its last three. Only one Bears game this year has topped 49 combined points. The Minnesota defense has started to turn things around with a big divisional win last week in Detroit where it held the Lions to two TDs and forced three turnovers. Under 50.
PREDICTION: Teaser (Colts +7, Ravens -1, MIN/CHI Under 50) +160
Year-to-date record: 90-68 (57 percent)
NFL Week 10 Prop Betting Card
- Justin Herbert Over 35.5 pass attempts (-122)
- Darnell Mooney Over 0.5 TDs (+300)
- J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 receptions (+124) and Over 30.5 receiving yards (-112)
- JAC/GB Over 2.5 field goals + HOU/CLE Over 2.5 field goals (+120)
- Jake Luton Over 9.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Jerry Jeudy Over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Jared Goff Over 289.5 Passing yards (-115)
- Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing TDs (+112, half-unit)
- Kyler Murray Over 51.5 rushing yards (-117)
- D.J. Moore Over 54.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Tyler Lockett Over 4.5 receptions (-125) and Over 0.5 TDs (+115)
- John Brown Over 47.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Philip Rivers Over 266.5 passing yards (-113)
- Arizona (+150) AND Buffalo (+175) to score in every quarter — YES
- Travis Fulgham Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115), Over 4.5 receptions (-120) and anytime TD (+140)
- Teaser (Colts +7, Ravens -1, MIN/CHI Over 38) +160
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