NFL Parlay Builder Cheat Sheet: Player Prop Hit Rates, Projections & TD Values

Build your NFL parlays with the latest player prop projections, historical hit rates, touchdown values, and Sunday betting trends from Covers.

The Covers NFL Parlay Builder Cheat Sheet brings some of the most useful information together in one place to help you with your NFL picks.

Each week, we'll highlight historical hit rates for some of the NFL's biggest stars, notable Covers player prop projections, touchdown values, and other numbers worth knowing before building your card.

NFL player prop hit rates

Historical hit rates can give bettors a quick look at how frequently a player has reached certain yardage thresholds.

Instead of looking only at whether a player went Over or Under a traditional sportsbook prop, the tables below show how frequently featured players have reached a range of statistical milestones.

QB passing yard hit rates

For quarterbacks, we're looking at how frequently each player reached a series of passing-yard thresholds across all of his 2025 regular-season appearances.

Player	175+	200+	225+	250+	275+
Josh Allen	12/17 71%	10/17 59%	8/17 47%	8/17 47%	3/17 18%
Lamar Jackson	9/13 69%	7/13 54%	4/13 31%	1/13 8%	1/13 8%
Joe Burrow	6/8 75%	6/8 75%	6/8 75%	4/8 50%	3/8 38%
Jalen Hurts	11/16 69%	7/16 44%	7/16 44%	4/16 25%	4/16 25%
Justin Herbert	12/16 75%	12/16 75%	9/16 56%	6/16 38%	4/16 25%

How to read the table: A 12/17 hit rate at 175+ passing yards means the player reached at least 175 passing yards in 12 of his 17 recent appearances.

RB rushing yard hit rates

For running backs, we're looking at how frequently each player reached a series of rushing-yard thresholds across all of his 2025 regular-season appearances.

Player	40+	50+	60+	70+	80+
Jahmyr Gibbs	12/17 71%	10/17 59%	9/17 53%	6/17 35%	6/17 35%
Bijan Robinson	14/17 82%	12/17 71%	12/17 71%	12/17 71%	8/17 47%
Jonathan Taylor	16/17 94%	14/17 82%	13/17 76%	12/17 71%	8/17 47%
Saquon Barkley	14/16 88%	11/16 69%	9/16 56%	6/16 38%	5/16 31%
Derrick Henry	15/17 88%	14/17 82%	13/17 76%	11/17 65%	9/17 53%

WR receiving yard hit rates

For wide receivers, we're looking at how frequently each player reached a series of receiving-yard thresholds across all of his 2025 regular-season appearances.

Player	60+	70+	80+	90+	100+
Ja'Marr Chase	11/16 69%	10/16 63%	10/16 63%	10/16 63%	7/16 44%
Justin Jefferson	9/17 53%	8/17 47%	5/17 29%	3/17 18%	3/17 18%
CeeDee Lamb	10/14 71%	9/14 64%	7/14 50%	6/14 43%	6/14 43%
Amon-Ra St. Brown	11/17 65%	10/17 59%	8/17 47%	7/17 41%	5/17 29%
Drake London	6/12 50%	6/12 50%	5/12 42%	5/12 42%	5/12 42%

TE receiving yard hit rates

Player	30+	40+	50+	60+	70+
Trey McBride	16/17 94%	16/17 94%	14/17 82%	11/17 65%	9/17 53%
Sam LaPorta	7/9 78%	5/9 56%	5/9 56%	3/9 33%	3/9 33%
Colston Loveland	10/16 63%	7/16 44%	5/16 31%	4/16 25%	3/16 19%
Tucker Kraft	5/8 63%	5/8 63%	4/8 50%	2/8 25%	2/8 25%
Kyle Pitts	13/17 76%	9/17 53%	9/17 53%	5/17 29%	4/17 24%

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Biggest Covers player prop projection gaps

Historical hit rates tell us what players have done. Covers NFL prop projections give us another way to evaluate what could happen this week.

The table below highlights player props where the Covers projection differs noticeably from the listed sportsbook line. A larger difference doesn't guarantee an Over or Under will hit, but it can help identify markets worth investigating further.

Top Covers projection edges

Player	Market	DK Line	Covers Projection	Diff.
Kyler Murray	Passing yards	222.5	260.00	+37.50
C.J. Stroud	Passing yards	219.5	255.22	+35.72
Joe Burrow	Passing yards	266.5	300.98	+34.48
Jordan Love	Passing yards	238.5	270.82	+32.32

Lines as of Sept. 11. Refresh player prop lines and projections before publication. Differences represent the gap between the Covers projection and the listed betting line, not a projected probability of winning the bet.

NFL touchdown values

Touchdown scorers are among the most popular legs used in NFL parlays, but a strong likelihood of scoring doesn't necessarily mean a player is offering strong betting value.

Our very own Andy Whiteoak created an NFL touchdown grade guide to highlight the top-value plays in the market. Listed below are the Top 5!

Player	Opp.	Index Score	Probability
Dallas Goedert		90	30%
Tee Higgins		88	39%
Sean Tucker		83	18%
Chase Brown		82	56%
Jauan Jennings		79	22%

Remember that hit rate and value are not the same thing. A player who has scored in five of his last 10 games may still offer little betting value if sportsbooks are charging an extremely short price for his anytime touchdown prop.

Sunday parlay builder watchlist

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How to use the NFL parlay builder cheat sheet

The goal of this page isn't to tell bettors that every high hit-rate player belongs in the same parlay.

Instead, use the different sections to help narrow down markets for further research:

• Use hit rates to see how consistently players have reached common statistical thresholds
• Use Covers projections to compare projected performance against current sportsbook lines
• Use touchdown grades to identify players whose TD prices may offer value
• Check the Sunday watchlist for injuries, role changes, weather, or other information that could affect a player's outlook
• Compare prices before adding a leg, especially when using alternate player props

And remember: the strongest individual bets aren't necessarily the strongest combination. Each additional parlay leg increases the number of outcomes that need to go your way.

Before you build your NFL parlay

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