The Week 1 action continues! If you want to cash touchdown tickets in the remaining action of the opening slate, you bet on explosive route-runners and unstoppable goal-line backs.
Jaylen Waddle, George Pickens, and David Montgomery headline our favorite anytime TD plays of the slate—plus, we’re stacking them into a wild, high-odds combo to top it all off.
So let's go right ahead and dive into our best NFL picks for what's ahead.
NFL touchdown parlay for today
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Inglis: David Montgomery TD |
54.5% |
 Jon Metler: Jaylen Waddle TD |
30% |
 Jason Logan: George Pickens TD |
38% |
 Joe Osborne: Cade Otton TD |
22% |
| 💲Today's TD combo | 59.6x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Josh Inglis' TD pick: David Montgomery
Price: 54.5% at Kalshi
I bought this at 54.5% but have the fair price closer to 60%.
It's Week 1, and I want a layup to get on the board. I don't see many running backs as likely to score Sunday as David Montgomery.
The Buffalo Bills gave up a league-high 18 TDs to opposing running backs last year and are a worse unit this season after losing five starters and bringing in a new defensive scheme.
The Houston Texans were one of the worst teams near the goal line last season, and they'll make it a point to change that narrative this year with their new back. Montgomery should get the majority of the red-zone work, and Houston can flirt with four TDs.
Jon Metler's TD: Jaylen Waddle
Price: 30% at Kalshi
I'm playing Jaylen Waddle at 30% to score a touchdown, as I price him closer to 36%, giving us a clear edge in this market.
If you're an offensive genius like Sean Payton and you're willing to trade a first-round pick and additional draft capital to acquire Waddle, I'm sure you have a plan for how you're going to use him in the red zone.
I'd be stunned if Payton doesn't use his bigger targets, Courtland Sutton and Evan Engram, to create space for Waddle on a whip or crossing route in goal-line packages against the Kansas City Chiefs.
That could give Bo Nix an easy red-zone target and create a great opportunity for Waddle to find the end zone.
Jason Logan's TD pick: George Pickens
Price: 38% at Kalshi
George Pickens is already talking smack to the New York Giants secondary and can back it up on SNF.
He rated out 10th among all WRs vs. zone coverage and will face plenty of that in East Rutherford. He struck for nine touchdowns in his first season with Dallas – six of which came versus zone defense.
Dak Prescott has shredded this Giants team in recent meetings and the G-Men have a very shoddy secondary.
I like Pickens to hit paydirt, playing this all the way up to 44%.
Joe Osborne's TD pick: Cade Otton
Price: 22% at Kalshi
Cade Otton quietly finished last season as Baker Mayfield’s second most targeted pass catcher.
Now he gets a spotty Cincinnati Bengals' defense that allowed the most receptions and touchdowns to tight ends in 2025. He’s hardly a prolific TD scorer, but this is an excellent matchup to find the end zone Sunday.
At 22%, he’s 100% worth the risk against this defense.
NFL Week 1 touchdown combo
 David Montgomery |
Trade Now 59.6x |
 Jaylen Waddle |
|
 George Pickens |
|
 Cade Otton |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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