Two of the league’s most turnover-prone QBs will do battle in the Meadowlands on Sunday as Carson Wentz and the rested 3-4-1 Philadelphia Eagles take on Daniel Jones and the 2-7 New York Giants.
Sadly, a win for the Giants could put them within an arm's reach of the NFC East division lead but as 3.5-point home underdogs, it will be an uphill climb. The total opened at a league-low 41.5 points but has since climbed up to 44.5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Eagles vs. Giants on November 15 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants betting preview
East Rutherford will have temperatures in the mid-50s with winds blowing SSE up to 25 mph. There is a chance of rain for the second half of this 1 p.m. ET NFC East matchup. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Eagles: Zach Ertz TE (Out), DeSean Jackson WR (Out).
Giants: Devonta Freeman RB (Out), Saquon Barkley RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 10-1 in the last 11 head-to-head matchups in New York. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Giants.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Despite the 2-7 record, the New York Giants are an impressive 6-3 ATS this season—and 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They covered as five-point road dogs against Philadelphia back on October 22 and have been involved in five straight three-point or fewer games. If it weren’t for Jones’ turnovers, this is a Giants team that could be on top of the NFC East, even without Saquon Barkley.
These two teams saw each other back in Week 7 and the Giants had the Eagles on the ropes with a 21-10 fourth-quarter lead. Well, the Giants imploded and lost that game but they did cover. As 3.5-point home dogs this week, it looks like a great price for a team that many think is a lot worse than they really are.
Jones is coming off his first turnover-free game this year and has thrown for six TDs over his last four games, after throwing for just two in his first five to start the year.
PREDICTION: New York Giants +3.5 (-110)
It’s not often we get low-40 totals but this is the NFC East, which has been almost unwatchable (but not unbettable) this year. The total jumped immediately after opening at 41.5 and can be found at 44 flat with most books early in the week.
Both starting QBs are in the Top 3 in interceptions thrown this year and both Wentz and Jones are tied for third in the league in fumbles with seven apiece. Turnovers can be Over killers, but they can also be Over aiders if neither team has great offenses, and both Philly and New York are in the Bottom 5 in yards per game and yards per play.
If both QBs are feeling generous, they could be setting up their opponents with short fields as New York has been converting red-zone trips into touchdowns at an 87-percent clip over its last three games and Philadelphia is scoring TDs in 71 percent of its red-zone attempts on the road this season.
We also wouldn’t say no to a pick-six or a fumble return for a TD, things both teams are familiar with this year.
PREDICTION: Over 44 (-110)
Sacks Prop Pick
We have been crushing our sack totals, going 5-0 SU over the last five weeks. The Eagles have made it easy as they are 7-1 O/U this year themselves on the Over 5.5 sacks. Last week, they were on the bye so we had to find another team to fade and that was Jones and the Giants.
Jones and Wentz are the two-most sacked QBs in all of football, having been sacked a combined 60 already this year. It’s no surprise, as both teams’ offensive lines are top in the league in pressure rate allowed.
On the defensive side of things, only the Pittsburgh Steelers are creating more sacks per game than the Eagles. Philly is managing 3.5 QB takedowns a game and will be even healthier in Week 10 after the bye.
The sack market doesn’t open up until late Saturday or Sunday morning on most books, but we're projecting the line will sit around 5.5. If it does come out at your sportsbook around this number, it will likely be a juiced play. But with four sides of the ball all in favor of the sack, we are taking the plunge once it opens.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia/New York Over 5.5 sacks (-163)
Eagles vs Giants betting card
- New York Giants +3.5 (-110)
- Over 44 (-110)
- Philadelphia/New York Over 5.5 sacks (-163)
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