Week 18 of the NFL regular season brings chaos, motivation mismatches, and playoff implications across the board, which is exactly where moneyline betting shines.
Instead of worrying about inflated spreads, this week’s NFL picks focus on teams with something to play for, clear quarterback edges, and situational advantages that point to outright wins.
Week 18 NFL moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Panthers vs  Buccaneers |
+124 |
 Seahawks vs  49ers |
-120 |
 Saints vs  Falcons |
-168 |
 Browns vs  Bengals |
-375 |
 Cowboys vs  Giants |
+170 |
 Packers vs  Vikings |
-370 |
 Colts vs  Texans |
-590 |
 Titans vs  Jaguars |
-850 |
 Chiefs vs  Raiders |
-154 |
 Lions vs  Bears |
-275 |
 Chargers vs  Broncos |
-820 |
 Dolphins vs  Patriots |
-620 |
 Commanders vs  Eagles |
-188 |
 Cardinals vs  Rams |
+280 |
 Jets vs  Bills |
-360 |
 Ravens vs  Steelers |
-184 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 12-31.
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Expert Week 18 NFL moneyline picks
Panthers vs. Buccaneers: 
Panthers (+124)
The Buccaneers have dropped seven of their last eight games and somehow still have a path to the division. I can’t, in good faith, back that outcome. Carolina’s defense should be good enough to take care of business and win this outright.
Seahawks vs. 49ers: 
Seahawks (-120)
With the NFC West title on the line, I’ll side with the more consistent team over the first 17 weeks — and the one with the far better defense. Seattle has been steadier in all phases and should get the win when it matters most.
Saints vs. Falcons: 
Falcons (-168)
I’m not entirely sure how the Falcons keep winning, but they’ve rattled off three straight and already played themselves out of a decent draft pick. Why stop now? Atlanta keeps rolling against a bad Saints team.
Browns vs. Bengals: 
Bengals (-375)
Joe Burrow or Shedeur Sanders? I know my answer. Cincinnati wins this game, full stop.
Cowboys vs. Giants: 
Giants (+170)
This game has shootout vibes written all over it, which gives the underdog a real chance to steal one late. If this comes down to the final possession, I’ll take my chances with New York to pull the upset.
Packers vs. Vikings: 
Vikings (-370)
Green Bay may be without both Jordan Love and Malik Willis, which leaves Clayton Tune under center. That’s far from ideal. Minnesota has stability at quarterback and plenty of surrounding talent — enough to win this outright.
Colts vs. Texans: 
Texans (-590)
Houston’s defense should feast in this matchup, and I don’t see Indianapolis having an answer for the pressure. The Texans control the game and come away with the win.
Titans vs. Jaguars: 
Jaguars (-850)
The Jaguars are one win away from clinching the AFC South. That’s not something I expected to say this season, but here we are. Jacksonville takes care of business and punches the ticket.
Chiefs vs. Raiders: 
Chiefs (-275)
I want nothing to do with the Raiders, and neither should you. This is a mismatch, and Kansas City wins comfortably.
Lions vs. Bears: 
Bears (-154)
Chicago is playing with purpose. Detroit is not. That motivational edge matters late in the season, and the Bears’ offense should do enough at home to secure the win.
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Chargers vs. Broncos: 
Broncos (-820)
I still don’t know what to make of the Broncos, but they're playing for seeding while the Chargers are resting everyone. Take the Broncos.
Dolphins vs. Patriots: 
Patriots (-620)
New England has consistently handled inferior teams, and Miami fits that profile. The Patriots handle business once again.
Commanders vs. Eagles: 
Eagles (-188)
Philadelphia is fighting for the No. 2 seed, so motivation won’t be an issue. Expect a focused effort and a straightforward Eagles win.
Cardinals vs. Rams: 
Cardinals (+280)
The Rams are locked into a Wild Card spot, and their outside shot at the division is gone. With Matthew Stafford’s MVP hopes fading, this feels like a vanilla game plan spot. Arizona has a real chance to capitalize and steal one.
Jets vs. Bills: 
Bills (-360)
Buffalo was a two-point conversion away from beating the Eagles despite playing poorly for most of the game. I expect a sharp bounce-back performance as they tune up for the playoffs.
Ravens vs. Steelers: 
Ravens (-184)
I’m backing Baltimore for two reasons. First, I believe they’re the better team from top to bottom. Second, I’m sitting on a “Steelers to miss the playoffs” ticket — and I’d very much like to cash it.
My NFL moneyline record is 159-97 this season for -1.2 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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