What appeared to be a “win and in” scenario is now a “win and wait” situation atop the NFC South.
To win the division, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers not only need to defeat the Carolina Panthers in Saturday’s Week 18 showdown but also need the Atlanta Falcons to lose to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
Carolina’s path to the division crown is far less complicated: win and punch your postseason ticket. And speaking of keeping things less complicated, the Panthers have a “straightforward” approach to beating the Bucs, with plenty of touches for running back Chuba Hubbard.
He’s the focus of my best Panthers vs. Buccaneers predictions and NFL picks for Saturday, January 3.
Panthers vs Buccaneers prediction
Panthers vs Buccaneers Best bet: Chuba Hubbard Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Chuba Hubbard has received a surge in playing time since Week 12, registering 20-plus snaps in each of the past four games.
While he still sits behind backfield mate Rico Dowdle in terms of involvement, Hubbard is finally getting more carries and targets after an injury-plagued fall limited his production.
Dowdle injured his toe in last weekend’s loss to the Seattle Seahawks, and while he’s expected to play on Saturday, he has missed practice on the short week.
If Dowdle is hampered, the Carolina Panthers need Hubbard to step up in this do-or-die matchup. Head coach Dave Canales didn’t hide his faith in Hubbard, calling him a stud and a leader on the team when asked about the veteran running back.
“I love Chuba,” Canales told the media. “Going to give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he’s just a guy that I really trust.”
Hubbard had a big day in the win over the L.A. Rams in Week 12, rushing 17 times for 83 yards. Since then, he’s received eight carries for 29 yards, six handoffs for 27 yards (vs. Tampa Bay), and had just four runs for 12 yards in the loss to Seattle.
Typically, facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would mean tough sledding for rival running backs. However, the Buccaneers’ run defense has crumbled in the second half of the season.
It’s gone from a Top-3 defense in EPA allowed per handoffs and opponent success rate per run in the opening eight weeks to 21st and 14th in those advanced metrics since Week 9.
Hubbard’s Week 18 projections range from 27 rushing yards to 34 yards, with most models north of 30 yards on the ground. Given Dowdle’s injury and Canales’ promise of more touches, I believe the ceiling is high for Carolina’s Canadian-born running back in Week 18.
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Panthers vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
The Bucs have the better quarterback and home-field advantage, while the Panthers have struggled to score on the road.
Hubbard is the healthier of the two running backs, and his coach had faith in him for this finale.
Bucky Irving will get the goal-line runs and has also shown he can be part of this passing game.
Panthers vs Buccaneers SGP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline
- Chuba Hubbard Over 28.5 rushing yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: MAC Rules!
It’s tough to beat a division rival twice in one season, especially on their own field with the season on the line.
Hubbard has seen an uptick in touches the past month, and Dowdle is playing through a toe injury.
Irving has been back a few games now and will get the red zone carries vs. Carolina.
Tetairoa McMillan scored against the Bucs two weeks ago and has five TDs in the last six games.
Panthers vs Buccaneers SGP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline
- Chuba Hubbard Over 28.5 rushing yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
- Tetairoa McMillan anytime touchdown
Panthers vs Buccaneers odds
- Spread: Panthers +3.5 (-110) | Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Panthers +165 | Buccaneers -200
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115)
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Panthers vs Buccaneers trend to know
Carolina is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS at Raymond James Stadium since 2018. Find more NFL betting trends for Panthers vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Panthers vs Buccaneers
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Saturday, January 3, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC/ESPN |
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