The Houston Texans are cruising along an eight-game winning streak led by their elite defense, and they welcome the Indianapolis Colts and veteran quarterback Philip Rivers to NRG Stadium on Sunday, January 4, for an AFC South season finale.
My early Colts vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks expect the Houston defense to be too much for Rivers, and for this total to also go Under the number in Week 18.
Colts vs Texans predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Colts vs Texans spread pick: Texans -10.5
The Houston Texans are building momentum with an eight-game winning streak while allowing just 17.9 points per game and ranking third in defensive DVOA during the heater.
Of course, Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has also found a groove with a 10th-ranked EPA+CPOE composite while throwing for a respectable 7.4 yards per attempt across five starts since returning to action.
The Indianapolis Colts have nothing to play for, while Houston can also win the AFC South if everything breaks its way.
Indy has QB troubles, with veteran Philip Rivers looking overmatched in his return.
Rivers has thrown for just 5.9 yards per attempt across his three starts, and he was completely stymied by the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars for 4.7 YPA. He’s third last in EPA+CPOE composite among QBs with at least 50 dropbacks during the three-game stretch, too.
So, while this is obviously a huge number, the Texans have covered the number in six of eight during their winning streak. I’m expecting them to make it seven of nine with a convincing win in Week 18.
Early Colts vs Texans total pick: Under 39.5
With Rivers unlikely to have success through the air against the stout Houston defense, I’m anticipating the Colts leaning on No. 1 running back Jonathan Taylor to keep the clock churning and attempt to shorten the game.
Indy has also played to the Under in two of three games with Rivers behind center, too.
The Texans have also been an Under machine this season with a 5-10-1 record, and the total has gone Under the number in five of eight games during their highlighted winning streak.
There’s also potential that Houston holds its offensive cards a little closer to the chest this week with a postseason berth clinched, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Texans also lean on the running game, and especially if they can build the lead I’m anticipating.
Colts vs Texans odds
- Colts vs. Texans spread: Texans -10.5
- Colts vs. Texans moneyline: Colts +400, Texans -550
- Colts vs. Texans Over/Under: 39.5
How to watch Colts vs Texans
- Colts vs. Texans matchup
- Date: Sunday, January 4, 2026, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Houston, TX
- Venue: NRG Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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