For the first time since 2014, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the final regular-season game knowing they’re 60 minutes from the offseason. That said, they're still better than the Las Vegas Raiders.
My Chiefs vs. Raiders predictions expect Kansas City to end the season on a high note in what could be Travis Kelce's last hoorah.
Read on for my free NFL picks for Sunday, January 4.
Chiefs vs Raiders prediction
Chiefs vs Raiders Best bet: Chiefs -5.5 (-113)
Make no mistake about it, the Las Vegas Raiders don't want to win.
That’s not to say the players want to lose, but if they do, the franchise has the No. 1 pick locked up, and they just got trounced by the Giants of all teams.
Geno Smith is officially out, while Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby are both on IR. Add in the reports from ESPN stating the Raiders' ownership is telling the coaching staff not to lose them the top pick, and you have a team set to hang it up.
Sure, the Kansas City Chiefs are down to quarterback Chris Oladokun, who picked up just 66 passing yards against the Broncos on 22 pass attempts. But they at least gave the Broncos a fight.
Let’s not forget this could be the final game that Travis Kelce plays for the Chiefs. While he’s made no commitment to his future, you can’t fathom his teammates will want anything but a win for their legendary tight end.
There’s also the fact that the Raiders have lost 11 consecutive divisional matchups by an average of nearly 12 points per game. They’ve also lost six of their last seven against the Chiefs, and 11 of the last 13 showdowns between these teams.
The Raiders have covered just twice in their last seven games. And last week as a three-point dog, they lost by 24. They looked like a team that is ready for the offseason, while the Chiefs are still showing some fight.
Keeping this game close would be playing with fire for the Raiders, and the Chiefs do have better players on both sides of the ball. It probably won’t be pretty, but the Chiefs will do enough to win by at least a touchdown.
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Chiefs vs Raiders same-game parlay
During their 10-game losing skid, the Raiders have scored 14 or fewer points on six occasions.
The Chiefs haven’t scored more than 13 points in four straight outings themselves, which has helped keep the total below 36 points in each of those outings. I’m expecting a similar situation here with two quarterbacks who can’t push the ball down the field.
Oladokun didn’t put in a pretty performance against Denver, but he did throw a touchdown pass as he connected with Brashard Smith.
With Kelce likely playing his final game, and Hollywood Brown needing a touchdown catch to cash in a massive bonus, I expect Andy Reid to try to set up at least one of them—which will give us another Oladokun scoring toss.
Chiefs vs Raiders SGP
- Chiefs -5.5
- Under 36.5
- Chris Oladokun Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
Our big-ticket SGP: Proper sendoff for Kelce
Oladokun connected five times on six targets to Kelce last week, and the Raiders have been hurt by tight ends of late. Both the Eagles and Texans completed seven throws to their tight ends, scoring a combined three touchdowns in the process.
It might take some creative playcalling, but Reid will want to get Kelce one final moment as a Chief. I’ll back him to end his four-game scoring drought one way or another.
Chiefs vs Raiders SGP
- Chiefs -5.5
- Under 36.5
- Chris Oladokun Over 0.5 passing touchdowns
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
Chiefs vs Raiders game predictions
Chiefs vs Raiders moneyline prediction
The Raiders ownership has made it very clear to the coaching staff that they want the top overall pick in the upcoming draft. There is no reason to back them to win this game whatsoever, especially with all the talent missing from this game.
Prediction: Chiefs moneyline
Chiefs vs Raiders spread prediction
As I mentioned, I expect K.C. to cover.
Prediction: Chiefs -5.5
Chiefs vs Raiders Over/Under prediction
Chris Oladokun isn’t going to push the ball down the field, and the Raiders have been anemic on offense of late. This game will be ugly for the neutral, and while the total is fairly low the Under is still the way to go.
Prediction: Under 36.5
Chiefs vs Raiders odds
- Spread: Kansas City -5.5 (-110) | Las Vegas +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Kansas City -255 | Las Vegas +210
- Over/Under: Over 36.5 (-106) | Under 36.5 (-114)
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Chiefs vs Raiders trend to know
The Las Vegas Raiders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.95 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Raiders.
How to watch Chiefs vs Raiders
| Location | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Sunday, January 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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