The NFC South crown is on the line this weekend, but the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons aren’t part of that playoff picture as they collide on Sunday.
Instead, they’re both poised for middle-of-the-pack finishes, but New Orleans enters this regular season finale without key players, and my Saints vs. Falcons predictions expect Kirk Cousins and Atlanta to cash in.
Read on for my NFL picks for Sunday, January 4.
Saints vs Falcons prediction
Saints vs Falcons Best bet: Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+122)
At age 37, Kirk Cousins has shown over the last few weeks that there’s still a little left in the tank. Whether Sunday is his last game as a member of the Atlanta Falcons or not, look for him to finish the season with a bang.
Cousins is certainly making his case for a starting job somewhere in 2026. He found a rhythm in the Week 15 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with 373 passing yards and three touchdowns, and threw for two more scores 10 days later against the Arizona Cardinals.
With Drake London and Kyle Pitts both listed as questionable but expected to play, I’ll take these plus odds for 2+ touchdown passes from Cousins this weekend. There’s really nothing to lose for the veteran QB in this spot – in short, he can let it fly.
In addition to London, Pitts and Darnell Mooney, this prop also taps into Bijan Robinson’s big-play threat as a receiver. Cousins has tossed a touchdown pass to Robinson in each of the Falcons’ last two games.
Then there’s the matchup against the New Orleans Saints earlier this season. Cousins was terrific that afternoon, finding David Sills V and Mooney for TDs while completing 16 of his 23 passes. Pencil him in for a similar stat line on Sunday.
Saints vs Falcons same-game parlay
With four straight wins, New Orleans has played its way out of a tasty draft pick, but I see that run ending here. The Falcons have won the last two meetings against the Saints at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, and the hosts have scored 26+ points in each of their past three outings.
I have my doubts about the banged-up New Orleans offense around Tyler Shough, but an anytime touchdown for Audric Estimé comes at a nice price. He found the end zone last weekend with a 32-yard scamper, and he’ll get opportunities when the visitors are in scoring range.
Saints vs Falcons SGP
- Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Atlanta Falcons moneyline
- Audric Estimé anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: London Calling!
This pick fits well with my best bet, as London should again be a leading target for Cousins. He’s been quiet since returning from a knee injury, but he’s hauled in six touchdown passes this season, and he was a big part of the game plan in both games against the Saints last year.
Though the Falcons may take a cautious approach with London’s snap count, he’s a proven red zone weapon.
Saints vs Falcons SGP
- Kirk Cousins Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Atlanta Falcons moneyline
- Audric Estimé anytime touchdown
- Drake London anytime touchdown
Saints vs Falcons odds
- Spread: Saints +2.5 (-105) | Falcons -2.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Saints +130 | Falcons -155
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-105) | Under 43.5 (-115)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Saints vs Falcons trend to know
The Under is 10-5-1 in the Saints’ 16 contests this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Falcons.
How to watch Saints vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Sunday, January 4, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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