The second week of a fresh NFL season kicks off tonight with what's setting up to be an explosive affair, and we're breaking it down with our Lions vs. Bills expert picks.
Our experts have the game covered from every angle for your NFL picks, including spread, total, and player prop selections for this Thursday Night Football tilt.
It all begins at 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, N.Y.
Lions vs Bills expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Amon-Ra St. Brown 7+ receptions |
56% |
 Josh Inglis: DJ Moore Over 4.5 receptions |
52% |
 Joe Osborne: Over 53.5 |
54% |
 Jon Metler: Lions +4.5 |
51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7+ receptions
Price: 56% at Kalshi
The Detroit Lions’ WR1 had a busy Week 1, drawing 14 targets for 10 catches and 67 yards, plus two touchdowns, against New Orleans.
Amon-Ra St. Brown could see similar action on Thursday, given the matchup and issues on Detroit's offensive line.
Heading into Week 2, the Lions have three starters on the injury report for an already thin protection unit. That doesn’t bode well, considering the Buffalo Bills' pass rush conjured up a pressure rate of 31% versus Houston and landed three sacks and six QB hits.
St. Brown is Jared Goff's go-to under duress, finding him for quick hits when pressure comes, and the Lions' slot receiver faces a Bills secondary that’s struggled to track slot targets in the past.
Buffalo gave up a collective 82 receiving yards on four receptions to the Texans’ slot receivers in Week 1.
Brown is also fantastic against zone coverage, rating out among the best WRs at PFF. He could see plenty of zone if the Bills' new defensive coordinator, Jim Leonhard, sticks with his Week 1 schemes.
Brown’s Week 2 projections call for seven catches, with some models flirting with eight receptions.
See what else Jason Logan is locking in on with his complete Lions vs. Bills prop picks.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: DJ Moore Over 4.5 receptions
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Dalton Kincaid stole the receiving headlines in Week 1, but the new guy registered a team-high eight targets while hauling in five for 100 yards and a score. He also led all Buffalo pass-catchers in target share (28.6%) and air-yard share (44%).
Buffalo only ran the ball on 35% of its plays in Week 1, and the approach might be a little more pass-heavy with a healthy Kincaid and DJ Moore on the scene now. This game projects to have the most plays in Week 2, and for Moore to get 7.9 targets. This prop is on the move.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Over 53.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
These offenses combined for 67 points in Week 1, and there’s plenty of reason to expect another shootout. The Bills dropped 36 on Houston’s formidable defense behind a ridiculous 7.9 yards per play, while the Lions scored 31 despite taking their foot off the gas after building a 21-0 lead midway through the third quarter.
The defensive red flags are equally encouraging. Buffalo surrendered 31 points to an average-at-best Texans offense, while Detroit let the New Orleans Saints march up and down the field with ease after halftime.
The Bills were a wagon at home last year and should want to put on a show in their debut at their new stadium. Detroit's high-flying offense can go shot for shot with them and should be on their A-game after almost blowing a 21-0 lead in Week 1.
See what else Joe Osborne is eyeing in his complete Lions vs. Bills predictions.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Lions +4.5
Price: 51% at Kalshi
Give me the Lions catching 4.5 points in the Thursday Night Football odds, as I make them closer to a 3-point underdog against the Bills.
A lot will be made about Detroit's secondary, but it's not like Buffalo's unit was slowing down the Texans' offense in Week 1. Goff needs a clean pocket to be effective, and Penei Sewell is the key to this matchup. Sewell can completely neutralize Bradley Chubb one-on-one, allowing the Lions to shift their protection toward Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau.
That should give Detroit a better chance to keep Goff's jersey clean without compromising its route numbers.
How to watch Lions vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, NY |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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