Ye olde Sophomore Slump for ‘25

Howzit… last NFL Season I went out and said fade/don’t draft early in Fantasy Football … CJ Stroud, Texans. 

This season I think I’ve narrowed it down (among a few great options btw) to drum roll please….cymbal crash!!! 

Jayden Daniels, Commanders    

Ive consistently seen him ranked top 3-5 among Fantasy QB’s.  Proven studs like Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, Hurts even should be drafted ahead imo despite the syndicates. Regression will smack this team as last year was an outlier to me…exceeded all expectations with surprise. The unrest with his Mr chemistry -“scary” Terry McLaurin is worth noting and another player I’m planning to fade as far as futures and fantasy.  Deebo is another nice name, tough situation. Just not the same guy with the pounding his body has taken. Ekeler, RB same situation. Stud when healthy. Brian Robinson , Ertz? Ok…not really blown away.  

Just talking story , so please chime in…. Daniels sophomore slump candidate #1 

Glancing around…Futures for JD: 3450’ Passing yards and 23’ Passing TD’s (1.4 per game). Scheduled against the AFC West isn’t ideal. Per last years stats the skins ‘25 opponents have given up the least amount of points. Changes at both offensive tackles, Cosmi coming off a torn ACL in the playoffs…This ain’t your old Uncles Hogs.  Tremendous season last year, eh this year imo. 

Redskins will be just fine this year 

Good luck.  I am leaning to NYG in Week 1.

Soph Slump:

Bo Nix 

Rookie of the year Cam Ward 

week1  -matchup 

Bo Nix vs. Cam Ward

Tony Pollard had over 1000 yards last season when defenses could tighten the box and focus on stopping the run in an unbalanced offense and putrid passing game.  

They Titans defense gave up the 2nd fewest yards last season but were a near the bottom in points allowed.  Well part of that was because the offense couldn’t control the ball and also made bad mistakes and turnovers.  

Cam Ward and company can change tgat narrative and the Titans are not being appreciated at all yet.  Titans 7-23 ATS the last 30 games.  Even through out the distaste this team was they were only double digit dogs 2 times the last 2 years!  That is a statement that they have some talent.  

I predict the Titan will be amongst the top ATS teams this season.  

As far as the week 1 matchup with the Broncos.  Broncos have caught the attention of quite a few this season and it’s very possible they could step back.  (Speaking mostly ATS, I feel the AFC West is over appreciated)   

In my opinion, If one is not playing the Titans in week 1, they might be missing out on a nice line and very possible upset opportunity. 

Commanders and Broncos will be tested and on upset alert in week one. 

The last upset game I’m looking at with my spyglass is the Saints. 

The Saints started so hot in the first 2 weeks in 2024!!!! Did you know in week 3 the Saints were favorites against the Super Bowl champ Eagles!  That’s right !!!! 

Cardinals are 4-13 SU the last 2 seasons in away games!

The Cards are 1-6 as a road favorite and a dog with A line of <6 .  Within this they were -5 to Carolina last season in the road and lost that game. 

The saints after week 2 last year is a problem. 3-12 record after that and thus the +6 line here

I target week one games in which the survivor players could possibly make an error and in my opinion all these teams qualify 

I will be making a 3 team point spread and money line parlay on these teams and also include the Seahawks in a small amount of wagers as well.  SF 49ers completely messed up their roster in the offseason.  After they lost to the Chiefs in the superbowl a few seasons back they have been plain as water. 

There you go Dr. Woods m, my best thoughts 

 Bonus selection Thursday night opener 

Eagles Zvowboys under 46.5 Dallas made some off season roster movers to directly slow Philly dien.  Also per normal after a Super Bowl win Philly had to let go of some highly pain highly skilled talent. You can look up the roster changes on your own. 

46.5 point total says a lot after what Philly did in the past season. 21-17 24-20 Eagle win something like that. 

Saints Giants Titans Seahawks week 1 winners.  

@spottie2935

 I also like Titans to improve on ATS record and possibly substantially 

@Biscuiteater1

Washington should cover in week 2 vs packers.  Just because Washington won’t do as well as last season they still are a valuable dog.  It’s the favorite lines they will struggle with because they are not complete and still rebuilding into a more powerful and consistent team.  Facing better teams this season will cover as dogs.  Then I hope are elevated too far as very easily faded as favorites. 

All in all I hope the commanders are meandering big time lots of volatility. 

@spottie2935

 Great stuff as usual Spottie 

Texans had a great season in 2012 and that was the last great season they had after making the playoffs the previous season.  

Since 2012 the season after the Texans made they playoffs they are:

Have a losing record if 39-58 in seasons after a season in which they made the playoffs.  Add to that 37-58-2 ATS in those games.  So historically they are not strong enough to maintain a great follow up season after exceeding team potential.  

A lot of this is due to a more difficult and elevated schedule and the big thing for me is their ownership o ly goes so far in the offseason to improve the roster.  With Mixon already hurt we’ll see what transpires before kickoff I  week 1. 

@spottie2935

 Week one is the hardest week to handicap.

"Saints Giants Titans Seahawks week 1 winners. " I'm assuming you meat ATS.

I went the other way. 3 team teaser. Phila. -1, Wash. -0.5 and Den. -1.5. All three teams playing at home.

Good luck.

@tahoejoe2

 You have the advantage for sure.   Personally I don’t like using teasers.  In certain circumstances they can be a fine tool though. 

I bet what I like and I go against the grain so I expect to get dislikes.  I personally get cautious if everyone likes what I like.  You bring me balance and peace.  

you’re assuming that everything from last season stays the same?  That’s interesting. There usually  are a few wild upsets.  Maybe this season I’ll hurt burnt.  We’ll see

either way best wishes this season

get the money.  

@Biscuiteater1

 Have a great season Biscuit 

week 1 usually has a few big lined teams fail.  That’s what makes survivor contests so difficult.  I take advantage of the difficulties in week 1.