Dolphins vs Rams Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets for Monday Night Football

NFL expert Jason Logan believes points will come fast and furious at SoFi Stadium tonight. Find out more on why he's backing the Over in this non-conference game.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Nov 11, 2024 • 19:16 ET • 4 min read
Tua Tagovailoa and Matthew Stafford
Photo By - Imagn Images. Composite of Tua Tagovailoa and Matthew Stafford

The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams are heading in opposite directions in the NFL power ratings and clash in a coast-to-coast contest on Monday Night Football in Week 10.

Miami lugs a three-game losing skid to the left side of the country where it faces a red-hot L.A. squad on a three-game winning streak inside SoFi Stadium. Despite carrying one of the taller totals of Week 10, tonight's Dolphins vs. Rams predictions back the Over. 

Find out why in my NFL picks for Monday, November 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 at Sofi Stadium in Inglewood, with the game airing on ESPN.

For more, don't forget our Dolphins vs Rams props and a special spotlight on Tua Tagovailoa odds.

Dolphins vs Rams MNF prediction

My best bet
Over 48.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel)

My analysis

Since returning quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from a concussion, the Miami Dolphins offense has looked extremely strong. 

In Tua’s two games back, the Fins have finished with 54 combined points on 750 total yards, picking up more than six yards per play in those outings. The Dolphins also play nice with the advanced metrics, ranking No. 2 in EPA per play and No. 1 in success rate per snap since Week 8.

Miami faces a Los Angeles Rams defense that isn’t as stingy as it looks on the surface. Los Angeles has allowed just 55 total points during this winning streak but caught breaks with a mid-week matchup with Minnesota at home and a disjoined finish in the win over Seattle in Week 9.

Los Angeles gave up 424 yards to the Seahawks but thanks to two red zone interceptions from Seattle QB Geno Smith — one of which was returned for a pick-six — the final score doesn’t show just how much L.A. bent last Sunday.

The Dolphins’ budding blend of run/pass presents a tough test for the Rams, especially if WR Tyreek Hill is healthy. While the injury report lists the speedy receiver as questionable, Hill posted on social media from the team’s plane and sounded like he was ready to play Monday night.

The Dolphins will need all the points they can get, considering how bad their defense has done. Miami has allowed 58 points against the past two games and is susceptible to potent pass attacks, ranked 25th in EPA allowed per dropback.

As for the Rams, returnees have also sparked Los Angeles’ scoring, with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacau coming back from injury during this three-game run. The Rams have put up 56 total points in the past two outings, ranking 10th in EPA per play since Week 8.

Miami’s defense isn’t presenting much pressure on opposing passers, rated 11th lowest in pressure rate with the second-fewest sacks on the season. That bodes well for L.A. quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is among the top QBs in the NFL when kept clean (but sees a significant slide when under duress). The veteran passer also prefers playing indoors, as we see a significant split in production between venues, and he’ll let it fly on the fast track inside SoFi on Monday.

This total currently sits at 48.5 after coming down from 50.5 earlier in the week. With Hill’s status worth at least a point to the number and rumblings saying he’ll play, we’ll likely see this climb up on game day. The Fins have easily toppled totals since Tagovailoa’s return and the Rams' offense will be able to trade blows.

Dolphins vs Rams MNF same-game parlay

Over 48.5 Points

Puka Nacua anytime touchdown

Matthew Stafford 2+ passing touchdown

You have two offenses heating up and two ho-hum defenses playing on the fast indoor surface of SoFi. It makes for plenty of points.

Nacau should be anxious to get out there after getting tossed in the second quarter of last week’s win over Seattle. Fresh legs will find the end zone.

The Dolphins are dreadful versus the pass, allowing five passing touchdowns in the past two games. Stafford has struck for six TD throws in the last two games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Dolphins vs Rams odds

Dolphins vs Rams live odds

Dolphins vs Rams opening odds

  • Spread: Miami +2.5 | Los Angeles -2.5
  • Moneyline: Miami +115 | Los Angeles -130
  • Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Dolphins vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Oddsmakers opened this game with Los Angeles as a 2.5-point home favorite and that slimmed up quickly to L.A. -1.5, where it has stayed most of the week. 
  • According to Covers Consensus, 69% of picks are laying the short points with the Rams.
  • The total opened at 50.5 points and dipped as low as 48.5, with Tyreek Hill showing up on the injury report. However, we are seeing some movement back to 49.5 O/U. 
  • Covers Consensus shows 55% picks on the total siding with the Over.

Dolphins vs Rams betting trend to know

In 20 regular season road games under head coach Mike MacDaniel, Miami is 13-7 Over/Under – playing Over the total in 65% of those away tilts. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Rams.

How to watch Dolphins vs Rams

Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Date: Monday, 11-11, 2024
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN or ABC

Learn how to live stream Dolphins vs. Rams for free.

Dolphins vs Rams latest injuries

Dolphins vs Rams weather

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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