The Milwaukee Brewers are priced at 59% to beat the Tampa Bay Rays in World Series Game 5, with the total set at 6.5 runs.
Our Brewers vs. Rays predictions back Jacob Misiorowski to close out the series. Tampa Bay kept its season alive in a 12-inning thriller on Tuesday, but doing so cost it eight innings from the bullpen and two innings from Nick Martinez, who had been in line to start tonight.
Let's assess where things stand now in my MLB picks for Game 5.
TOP PICK
Brewers vs Rays prediction: Brewers moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Buy the Milwaukee Brewers to 62%. I'm back on them here, as we were a little unfortunate last night.
The Tampa Bay Rays are a tough strikeout matchup. They led MLB in contact rate, and Jacob Misiorowski struck out only three batters in five innings against them during Game 1. But he still held them to one run.
The edge here though is over nine innings. Tampa Bay used seven pitchers Tuesday, with its bullpen covering eight frames. Nick Martinez, who was previously in line to start Game 5, threw two innings. Drew Rasmussen could start on three days of rest, but the Rays enter with no fully rested starter to turn to now.
Milwaukee trots out Misiorowski on four days of rest while Tampa Bay must navigate another game with a stretched-out staff.
COVERS INTEL: Tampa Bay’s three freshest relievers are Steven Matz, Cole Sulser and Garrett Cleavinger. They allowed a .342, .321, and .317 xwOBA, respectively, in 2026, all worse than the .316 MLB average.Who will win Brewers vs Rays?
Milwaukee Brewers: Milwaukee wins Game 5. Tampa Bay’s pitching options are too compromised to make its home-field advantage stand up.
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Brewers vs Rays combo
This combo builds around Milwaukee’s first four hitters getting repeated looks at a staff without a fully rested starter. Jackson Chourio leads off, so an early trip through the order gives him a chance to do damage against whoever opens. If the game reaches the middle innings and it's still close, he should face the next pitcher, too.
William Contreras hits fourth and makes enough contact to remain useful, even if Kevin Cash turns to a lefty.
Brewers vs Rays combo
- Brewers moneyline
- Jackson Chourio over 1.5 bases
- William Contreras over 0.5 hits
Brewers vs Rays home run prediction: Jackson Chourio
Chourio’s 12.3% barrel rate and .475 expected slugging percentage are the foundation here, but Tampa Bay’s pitching decisions sharpen the matchup.
If the Rays choose a bullpen game, Steven Matz or Garrett Cleavinger could provide some of the innings they need to cover. Chourio hit .333 with a .575 slugging percentage against lefties this season, including nine home runs in 171 plate appearances.
If Rasmussen starts instead, Chourio still gets the leadoff plate appearances before Cash needs to navigate the bullpen. This is a play on Chourio’s power and his opportunities.
- ML/RL Picks: 59-54, +9.52 units
- Over/Under Picks: 62-44, +20.49 units
Brewers vs Rays weather
Tropicana Field is indoors, so wind and rain won’t affect Game 5.
Brewers vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Brewers 59% | Rays 42%
- Run line: Brewers -1.5 | Rays +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Brewers vs Rays trend
Three of the first four World Series games were one-run affairs. With Tampa Bay’s starter unsettled, the Brewers moneyline leaves room for another close finish without asking Milwaukee to win by multiple runs. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Rays.
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How to watch Brewers vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay, Florida |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | TBD |
Brewers vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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