If you thought the heat index in Texas was out of control this time of the year, take a look at the “desperation index” around the Arlington area. It’s rising the closer we get to NFL Week 2.
The Dallas Cowboys got stuffed in a locker last Sunday night and are 4.5-point favorites when they host the rival Washington Commanders — another team feeling the crunch after an opening week loss.
My Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions are careful not to overreact to what we saw in the openers, seeking out edges to provide you with the very best NFL picks for Sept. 20.
TOP Pick
Commanders vs Cowboys prediction: Over 49.5
These NFC East foes scored 20 and 22 points, respectively, in their Week 1 defeats, which seems strange given the firepower on the field.
The Dallas Cowboys had their juice dried, with New York dominating the football and limiting the offense to seven possessions (just two in the second half).
Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders had only 99 yards at halftime versus Philadelphia’s top-tier defense before picking up the pace with nearly 200 yards and 13 points in the final 30 minutes.
The Cowboys are a much softer stop unit than Philly, especially with key starters ruled out for Week 2. The Commanders' defense benefited from the Eagles' struggles adapting to a new offense but still allowed 6.0 yards per play.
COVERS INTEL: The advanced stats give a clear look at both offenses’ potential for points. Dallas ranked No. 5 in EPA per play/No. 8 in DVOA. Washington was 12th in EPA for Week 1 but jumps to No. 6 when you isolate the second half.
Commanders vs Cowboys combo
We didn’t get a good look at either offense in Week 1. Dallas didn’t touch the ball, and Washington wasted an entire half before finding it form. Neither defense is drum tight, and the fast track inside Jerry’s World will help pump out plenty of points in Week 2.
CeeDee Lamb scored against New York and is excellent at adjusting and exploiting holes in blitzing defenses. Although Terry McLaurin couldn’t get going against a solid Eagles secondary, he'll shred the Cowboys' crappy coverage for at least 50 yards in Week 2.
Commanders vs Cowboys combo
- Over 49.5
- CeeDee Lamb 1+ touchdown
- Terry McLaurin 50+ receiving yards
Commanders vs Cowboys touchdown scorer: CeeDee Lamb
I feel like I might be chasing my tail when it comes to calling out which Dallas receiver scores a touchdown.
Last week, I took George Pickens. CeeDee Lamb scored.
This week, I’m on Lamb. So, naturally...
The reason I gravitate to Lamb over Pickens in Week 2 is Washington’s new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones and his blitz-happy approach. He heated up the QB at the fifth-highest rate in Week 1 (37.5% up from 23.5% in 2025).
Dak Prescott is exceptional at recognizing and exposing the blitz, most often finding Lamb on quick reads for yards after the catch.
Lamb has six touchdowns in 11 career games versus Washington and multiple projections have his TD probability as high as 60%.
- Top picks: 4-0, +3.53 units
- Combos: 0-4, -4.00 units
Commanders vs Cowboys odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Commanders +4.5 | Cowboys -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (52%) | Under 49.5.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Commanders 35% | Cowboys 66%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Commanders vs Cowboys weather
AT&T Stadium is a domed stadium, so weather won’t have an impact.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Commanders vs Cowboys trend to know
The Cowboys were 5-2-1 O/U at AT&T Stadium last season and have produced 65% Over winners as hosts since 2020 (32-17-1 O/U). Make those divisional home games, and Dallas is 13-5 O/U (72% Overs) when hosting NFC East rivals over the past five seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Cowboys.
How to watch Commanders vs Cowboys
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Commanders vs Cowboys latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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