Week 2 is here, and we have an exciting slate of games to attack as we hunt for first touchdown scorers.
My first touchdown scorer picks focus on a blend of opportunity, matchup, and trending data while weighing the value available in the market.
Don't miss my NFL picks for Sunday's games.
Best Week 2 first touchdown scorer props
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Bucky Irving
Christian McCaffrey
Antonio WilliamsPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Bucky Irving first touchdown
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are among the biggest favorites on Sunday's slate, and it's no surprise given how bad the Cleveland Browns looked last week. Jacksonville didn't score a rushing touchdown against Cleveland, but Bhaysul Tuten still had a solid day, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. That sets up well for a Tampa Bay offense that should have plenty of opportunities to establish the run.
There were concerns that Bucky Irving would see Kenneth Gainwell eat into his workload, but Irving was efficient and found the end zone in Week 1. More importantly, eight of his 15 touches were classified as high-value touches, showing how much the coaching staff trusts him in scoring situations. Combine that usage with this matchup against Cleveland, and I'm backing Irving to open the scoring.
- Matchup: Browns vs. Buccaneers
- Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 20 at 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium
- TV: CBS
Pick #2: Christian McCaffrey first touchdown
I'm not too worried about the emergence of Kaelon Black. It's clear that Christian McCaffrey is still the main man for the 49ers. He might lose some carries to the rookie, but he still played 55% of the snaps and had 15 touches in Week 1, six of which were high-value touches. He's also still dangerous in space, forcing three missed tackles in the season opener.
The best part? He now gets the Miami Dolphins, who were diabolically bad in their opening game, making the Raiders look competent while allowing 130 rushing yards. Ashton Jeanty also caught six passes and scored two receiving touchdowns against them. McCaffrey's dual-threat skill set gives San Francisco multiple ways to get him the ball near the goal line, making him an obvious candidate to score first.
- Matchup: Dolphins vs. 49ers
- Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 20 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi's Stadium
- TV: FOX
Pick #3: Antonio Williams first touchdown
With a new and improved interior, there was hope that the Dallas Cowboys' defense could take a leap this season, but giving up 28 points to the Giants in Week 1 isn't the best sign. If anyone can take advantage, it's the Washington Commanders' rookie who delivered arguably one of the most impressive performances by any first-year player last week.
Antonio Williams hauled in all four of his targets for 64 yards and a touchdown, but it was how he played and the quality of his routes that stood out, with shades of Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams averaged 5.82 yards per route run and 0.36 targets per route run while putting on a clinic against the Eagles. He looks like a player on the verge of breaking out, and at just a 4% probability, I see value in backing the third-round pick from Clemson to strike first.
- Matchup: Commanders vs. Cowboys
- Date/Time: Sunday, Sept. 20 at 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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