The Kansas City Chiefs play host to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football, and anticipation is up after Patrick Mahomes led a lively Chiefs offense to a 31-10 blowout win over the Broncos in Week 1.
Our top Colts vs. Chiefs computer picks and NFL picks target Daniel Jones through the air, Patrick Mahomes on the ground, and more when the action gets underway at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Colts |
 Chiefs |
|---|---|
| Daniel Jones o199.5 passing yards 58% |
Patrick Mahomes u19.5 completions 46% |
| Daniel Jones o9.5 rushing yards 46% |
Kenneth Walker o79.5 rushing yards 53% |
| Josh Downs o39.5 receiving yards 52% |
Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown 21% |
| Alec Pierce o39.5 receiving yards 54% |
Rashee Rice anytime touchdown 39% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Colts computer picks
Daniel Jones Over 199.5 passing yards
Projection: 225.39 passing yards
This is a juiced number, but with 25+ yards of leeway and the Colts expected to be trailing at Arrowhead Stadium, there will be plenty of chances for Daniel Jones to rack up passing yards. He cleared this number in 10 straight games to start last season.
🔥 Trade JONES passing yards now
Daniel Jones Over 9.5 rushing yards
Projection: 20.48 rushing yards
This is one of the best projections on the board, with Jones expected to run for more than double his 9.5-yard total. He also ran for 16 yards on three carries in last season's meeting with the Chiefs.
🔥 Trade Jones rushing yards now
Josh Downs Over 39.5 receiving yards
Projection: 50.83 receiving yards
With projections high on Jones and this Colts passing attack, it's not surprising to see the projections looking fondly at Indy's top pass-catchers. That starts with Josh Downs, who had 37 yards on just two catches despite the Colts only throwing for 166 yards in Week 1.
🔥 Trade downs receiving yards now
Alec Pierce Over 39.5 receiving yards
Projection: 58.63 receiving yards
The projections like Alec Pierce even more. There's nearly a 20-yard gap between his projection and this total, and he caught four balls for 61 yards against the Ravens in Week 1.
🔥 Trade Pierce receiving yards now
Chiefs computer picks
Patrick Mahomes Under 19.5 completions
Projection: 18.33 completions
This is only a slight lean to the Under, but Patrick Mahomes had just 15 completions in Week 1, and if the Chiefs can build a lead again, they'll be happy to continue handing the ball off to Kenneth Walker.
🏈 trade Mahomes completions now
Kenneth Walker Over 79.5 rushing yards
Projection: 81.37 rushing yards
Speaking of Kenneth Walker, he exploded for 173 rushing yards on 23 carries last week, and Derrick Henry did similar things to this Colts defense in Week 1, rumbling for 144 yards and three touchdowns on 24 carries.
🔥 Trade Walker rushing yards now
Patrick Mahomes anytime touchdown
Projection: 0.33 touchdowns
Mahomes scored the first touchdown of the Chiefs' season last week and didn't seem bothered by his knee surgery. He ran seven times for 23 yards and will continue to be a threat once KC gets close to the goal line.
Rashee Rice anytime touchdown
Projection: 0.52 touchdowns
With this projection at 0.52 touchdowns, getting Rashee Rice to score a touchdown at anything below 45% presents some hard-to-turn-down value. He found the end zone despite a quiet overall game last week, and we're fetching him at 39% to score against a team that gave up 41 points in Week 1.
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