Best Commanders vs Cowboys touchdown picks
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jake Ferguson anytime touchdown |
27% |
 Terry McLaurin anytime touchdown |
32% |
| Javonte Williams first touchdown scorer |
19% |
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Commanders touchdown pick: Jake Ferguson
I'm backing Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson to score a touchdown at any price below a 33% implied probability.
Ferguson caught three touchdown passes in two games against the Washington Commanders last season. Washington surrendered the second-most touchdowns to opposing tight ends last season, and Ferguson will see favorable matchups in Week 2.
Rookie linebacker Sonny Styles is set to start for the Commanders on Sunday, while first-string safety Jeremy Reaves has received a failing grade in six of his eight NFL seasons, per Pro Football Focus.
Dallas also has two Pro Bowl-caliber wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who should command most of Washington's attention, leaving Ferguson to attack its weaknesses in coverage at linebacker and safety.
Cowboys touchdown pick: Terry McLaurin
Give me Commanders WR Terry McLaurin to score a touchdown at any price below a 35% implied probability.
Dallas allowed an NFL-high 26 touchdown catches to opposing wide receivers last season, five more than any other team in the league.
That sets up an excellent matchup for McLaurin, who hauled in a career-high 13 touchdown catches in 2024, his first season with Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. Injuries limited both players last season, but they're healthy entering this matchup.
We saw McLaurin's scoring ceiling with a healthy Daniels in 2024, when he found the end zone in both games against Dallas. With Daniels healthy again, I'm expecting McLaurin to capitalize on another favorable matchup at Jerry World.
First touchdown scorer pick: Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams' first touchdown prop is playable to 25%.
The Cowboys running back scored a touchdown in each of his games against the Commanders last season and found the end zone twice in Week 1. Williams is also a threat as a receiver out of the backfield, with eight career touchdown catches, including one last week.
Similar to Ferguson, Williams should benefit from favorable one-on-one matchups against Washington's linebackers and safeties. The Commanders' secondary will have its hands full with Lamb, Pickens, and Ferguson, which should create opportunities for Williams near the goal line.
Commanders vs Cowboys touchdown combo
Javonte Williams
Jake Ferguson
The Cowboys should have no problem moving the ball into the red zone on the Commanders.
Last season, Washington's defensive front ranked 30th in adjusted line yards allowed and 25th in stuff rate, according to FTN.
If the Commanders have to stack the box near the goal line, I could see Dallas targeting Ferguson off a play-action fake to Williams. Lamb or Pickens lining up wide in goal-to-go situations should draw safety help away from Ferguson.
- TD picks: 5-5, -1.07 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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