My Yankees vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 20, back the Yankees as a 53.27% favorite.
After a 5-3 Diamondbacks win on Saturday, New York looks to Will Warren to keep holding it down this afternoon. The first pitch flies at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Who will win Yankees vs Diamondbacks today: Yankees
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
No one wants to face New York Yankees right-hander Will Warren given how he's been pitching over his last few starts. The 27-year-old owns a 0.64 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 1.00 WHIP over his last three outings.
Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Corbin Burnes has been solid since returning from an injury. He's posted a sub-6.00 ERA through 7 2/3 innings, but his expected numbers are far better. However, he's still allowing a near-17% barrel rate, while opposing hitters have put up a .360 xwOBA. It is hard to trust Burnes in this matchup.
With how high Arizona's strikeout rate has been lately, I lean toward Warren being able to shut this lineup down. Plus, with Burnes allowing a lot of barrels and elevated balls since returning, I lean toward the Yankees bouncing back this afternoon, as they're generating a hard-hit rate above 43% lately.
COVERS INTEL: In Ben Rice's last 30 at-bats versus a right-handed pitcher, he owns a .409 BA, .773 SLG, and 1.306 OPS.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 8.5
Runs will already be at a premium for the Diamondbacks given how Warren has been pitching, while the same will be true for the Yankees if Burnes locks in today. The Arizona right-hander owns a 3.39 xERA and just a 37.50% hard-hit rate since returning. If he can limit those hard-hit balls, this could end up being a pitching duel.
Lean with this game staying under 8.5 runs.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Cody Bellinger
Two preferences here. I like Corbin Carroll and Cody Bellinger, but I lean more toward the Yankees' outfielder.
The veteran sports a .707 SLG and .341 ISO over his last 10 games while producing a 52.6% hard-hit rate and a barrel rate above 10%. His numbers are very similar against the last 30 right-handers he's faced, with a .357 BA, .750 SLG, and 1.117 OPS, along with a 50% hard-hit rate and 11% barrel rate.
Burnes has only faced 32 hitters, but he's allowing a lot of barrels at nearly 17%, while also posting just a 16.7% groundball rate. If Bellinger can connect with the ball, it'll likely be elevated.
At 13.6%, that is a great price for a guy who's seeing the ball very well over the last few weeks. Take this down to 18%.
- 2026 Season: 519-1015, +10.70u
- Home Run Picks: 132-444, +31.80u
Yankees vs Diamondbacks weather
This game will be played in a dome.
Yankees vs Diamondbacks odds
- Moneyline: Yankees 53.3% | Diamondbacks 50.3%
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Diamondbacks +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (51.2%) | Under 8.5 (53.5%)
Yankees vs Diamondbacks trend
The New York Yankees have hit the run line in 24 of their last 40 games (+13.85 Units / 30% ROI).
Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Yankees vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Dbacks.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (10-6, 3.89 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Corbin Burnes (0-0, 5.87 ERA) |
Yankees vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
