The Wisconsin Badgers are off to a 2-0 start, but they’ve yet to face a real test. That changes against Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama Crimson Tide, as he looks to regain the trust of the fanbase after a season-opening upset loss to Florida State.
My Wisconsin vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 13 focus on wideout Germie Bernard, who’s primed for a standout performance.
Wisconsin vs Alabama prediction
Wisconsin vs Alabama best bet: Germie Bernard Over 67.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Wisconsin Badgers' opponents this season have posted an explosive pass rate of 9.3%, ranking the Badgers in the bottom half of college football.
That’s very concerning when you realize that their first two opponents were Miami OH and Middle Tennessee State, neither of which have a very strong passing attacks. It’s why we’re likely to see the Alabama Crimson Tide picking up big chunks in the passing game, which should mean a solid day for Germie Bernard.
He’s already caught 11 passes this season for the Tide, including eight against Florida State. He had 146 receiving yards in that game, and followed it up with 67 yards on three catches last week against Louisiana Monroe.
Ty Simpson targeted Bernard only three times last week, but he looked for the senior receiver 14 times against Florida State. That was three more than went to Ryan Williams, who managed just five catches on the day.
Bernard had three catches last year for 55 yards against Wisconsin, second-most on the team behind Williams, who had four catches for 78 yards. But the Tide ran the ball 34 times for over five yards a clip, throwing just 22 times in a game they controlled.
Alabama isn’t running the ball as well so far this season, with a success rate that ranks 111th in the nation. But the Tide are 26th in passing success rate and 26th in EPA/pass, and Simpson is throwing the ball well.
The return of Williams from concussion protocol will help stretch Wisconsin’s secondary, and the focus paid to him will allow Bernard to thrive. Look for him to end the game with 70+ receiving yards and clear his total with ease.
Wisconsin vs Alabama same-game parlay
Wisconsin will want to replicate what Florida State did to upset Alabama, which means running the ball early and often. Jones is averaging 4.5 yards per carry on the season, and Wisconsin’s line should be able to open enough gaps for him to clear 40+ on the ground.
Jayden Ballard is Wisconsin’s third-leading receiver, and he’s been a consistent target who has shown an ability to make explosive plays. He will benefit from the attention paid to Vinny Anthony and may only need one catch to top his receiving total for the game.
Wisconsin vs Alabama SGP
- Germie Bernard Over 67.5 receiving yards
- Dilin Jones Over 37.5 rushing yards
- Jayden Ballard Over 18.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Alabama runaway
Danny O’Neil will be making his first road start for the Badgers, and the environment will be like nothing he experienced last year at San Diego State.
DeBoer knows he needs a strong start. I expect Alabama’s big-play ability in the passing game will be on display early, and the Tide should lead by at least a touchdown heading into the second quarter.
Ty Simpson threw two touchdowns against Florida State and another three against ULM, and has yet to throw an interception. He’s playing with confidence and will be relied upon heavily in this game, and two passing scores is a very low floor he should easily clear.
Wisconsin vs Alabama SGP
- Germie Bernard Over 67.5 receiving yards
- Dilin Jones Over 37.5 rushing yards
- Jayden Ballard Over 18.5 receiving yards
- Alabama -6.5 1Q
- Ty Simpson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Wisconsin vs Alabama game predictions
Wisconsin vs Alabama moneyline prediction
Alabama has the faster players on both sides of the ball, and a defense that will cause real problems for a quarterback making his first road start at Wisconsin. The Tide know a loss would put any playoff hopes on life support, and they’ll avoid any slip-ups that could arise from looking ahead to Georgia.
Wisconsin vs Alabama spread prediction
This is a tricky spread that has fluctuated throughout the week at the 21-point mark, and I think getting the hook is quite important. As it stands right now, I would take Wisconsin +21.5, but waiting to see if you can get the Tide -20.5 isn’t a bad play.
Wisconsin vs Alabama Over/Under prediction
I lean Under here. The number has come down to 45.5 points and I’m not confident in Wisconsin doing much to help. I could see Alabama trying to run up the score if possible, but also could see DeBoer holding back to give Georgia less to scout.
Wisconsin vs Alabama odds
- Spread: Wisconsin +21.5 | Alabama -21.5
- Moneyline: Wisconsin +1160 | Alabama -2800
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Wisconsin vs Alabama trend to know
Alabama have covered the Spread in five of their last six games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Wisconsin vs Alabama.
How to watch Wisconsin vs Alabama
| Location | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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