Tennessee heads to South Carolina fresh off a statement win over Alabama, while Ole Miss looks to hand Texas its third straight loss in one of Week 8's biggest SEC showdowns.
Those two games headline my Week 8 college football moneyline picks on a board loaded with intriguing underdogs.
Here are my Week 8 college football picks.
Week 8 college football moneyline picks
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| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Duke vs  Virginia |
47% |
 Western Michigan vs  Toledo |
41% |
 LSU vs  Auburn |
71% |
 Baylor vs  Kansas |
42% |
 Iowa vs  Minnesota |
31% |
 Tennessee vs  South Carolina |
46% |
 Virginia Tech vs  Clemson |
56% |
 Ole Miss vs  Texas |
42% |
 USC vs  Wisconsin |
57% |
 Houston vs  Utah |
68% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 8 CFB moneyline picks
Duke vs Virginia: Duke
Virginia has been vulnerable against intermediate passes, and that's where I want Duke attacking on Friday.
The Blue Devils don't have a reliable enough running game to spend the night pounding into the Cavaliers' defensive front. They need to throw on early downs, keep the chains moving, and avoid obvious passing situations.
At 47% on Kalshi, Duke is worth backing in what should be a close game.
Western Michigan vs Toledo: Western Michigan
Both teams enter Saturday at 5-2, so I'm not convinced Toledo deserves this much respect simply for playing at home.
Western Michigan's path is through its running game, keeping the Broncos ahead of the chains and limiting Toledo's chances to attack on obvious passing downs.
If Western Michigan can consistently pick up four or five yards on first down, the Broncos have a legitimate shot at winning outright.
LSU vs Auburn: LSU
Auburn just pulled off a massive upset at Georgia, but I'm not rushing to upgrade the Tigers based on one Saturday.
LSU has already shown it can put points on a quality SEC opponent, including a convincing win over Texas A&M.
Auburn's defense now has to back up that Georgia performance against another capable offense.
I trust LSU to create more scoring opportunities and win this one on the road.
Baylor vs Kansas: Kansas
Baylor's DJ Lagway completed just 41.5% of his passes against TCU and has been at or below 50% in three of his last four starts.
That's a problem against a Kansas offense with enough firepower to build an early lead.
Isaiah Marshall gives the Jayhawks a quarterback capable of extending plays and creating something outside the pocket.
Baylor's passing struggles could make any deficit difficult to overcome.
Iowa vs Minnesota: Minnesota
Minnesota is getting just 31% on Kalshi, but I like the Gophers' chances in a game with a projected total around 40.5 points.
Iowa is the stronger team, but there shouldn't be many possessions for the Hawkeyes to pull away.
Minnesota needs Drake Lindsey to avoid turnovers and give its defense manageable field position.
One or two big defensive stops could make this rivalry much closer than expected.
Tennessee vs South Carolina: Tennessee
South Carolina averages 232.3 rushing yards per game, but Tennessee just held Alabama to 2.1 yards per carry on 26 attempts. That's the matchup I'm targeting.
The Gamecocks want to establish the run and avoid putting everything on their passing attack.
Tennessee has the defensive front to take that away. If the Volunteers repeat anything close to last week's effort, I like their chances of winning in Columbia.
Virginia Tech vs Clemson: Clemson
Virginia Tech enters at 5-2, while Clemson sits at 4-2, so this isn't the mismatch their reputations might suggest.
Still, Clemson gets the Hokies at home, where the Tigers can lean on their defense and force Virginia Tech to earn points through sustained drives.
Clemson can't afford the mistakes that have hurt it against stronger opponents, but I expect its defense to create enough stops to win a close game.
Ole Miss vs Texas: Ole Miss
Texas has lost consecutive games by identical 27-24 scores, and its offense hasn't done enough to protect an otherwise talented defense.
Ole Miss just hung 52 points on Vanderbilt, with Trinidad Chambliss giving the Rebels a quarterback who can stretch defenses vertically.
The Longhorns can generate pressure, but they can't afford to keep trading field goals for touchdowns.
I'm backing Ole Miss to find enough explosive plays for the upset.
USC vs Wisconsin: USC
Wisconsin ranks 68th nationally in scoring and 61st in yards per play. That's not the offense I want facing a USC team capable of scoring quickly.
Jayden Maiava has the Trojans among the nation's top 15 in scoring, total offense, and yards per play.
Wisconsin can slow things down at home, but if USC builds an early lead, I don't trust the Badgers to produce enough offense to catch up.
Houston vs Utah: Utah
Houston ranks 129th nationally in passing yards allowed per game and 99th in yards allowed per attempt.
That's a terrible matchup against Devon Dampier and a Utah offense that has scored at least 31 points in five of six games.
The Utes also rank 11th nationally in scoring defense, so Houston will have trouble keeping pace.
Utah has advantages on both sides of the ball, making the Utes my pick.
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