College Football Week 11 Picks: ChatGPT Predicts the Winner of Every Big Game

Northwestern vs No. 20 USC

USC is a two-touchdown favorite and a sizable moneyline choice for a reason. Northwestern’s number (+480) implies a steep upset climb, and the Trojans’ talent edge should show up over four quarters. For a straight-up wager, laying -650 isn’t cheap, but it’s the safest side.

Tulane vs No. 20 Memphis

Moneyline prediction: Memphis (-200)
Odds: Memphis -5.5; total 55.5.
The market makes Memphis a two-thirds favorite straight up. A 55.5 total points to a moderately high-scoring game where a handful of explosive plays and red-zone trips can swing the result. In those scripts, home-field edges and field position often matter, which aligns with the Tigers being favored by more than a field goal.

Tulane’s +168 implies a 37% shot, live enough to make it interesting, but the spread/ML combination still leans to Memphis winning more often than not.

If you’re building a conservative parlay or want a single moneyline at reasonable juice, Memphis is the side.

No. 2 Indiana vs Penn State

With a -15.5 spread and an -820 moneyline, the market is clearly backing the Hoosiers to control game flow. Penn State’s +550 payout signals live-dog status only if things get weird; otherwise the chalk should land.

No. 5 Georgia vs Mississippi State

Georgia’s -8.5 spread implies a one-score-to-two-score cushion over four quarters. With a -330 moneyline, you’re paying for blue-chip consistency against a Mississippi State team priced +260. The total in the high 50s hints at some volatility, but Georgia’s roster depth and late-game defense typically travel.

No. 8 BYU vs No. 9 Texas Tech

Texas Tech’s -350 ML implies 77.8% win probability, which aligns with a double-digit spread and home field — a combo that typically signals a material personnel/efficiency edge. The 52.5 total points to a game in the mid-20s/low-30s, so a few explosives and red-zone trips will define it.

At home, Tech’s spread spacing and tempo tend to manufacture early leads, forcing opponents into pass-heavier scripts where Tech’s pass rush and simulated pressures can hunt obvious downs.

BYU’s +275 is a live number if the Cougars can shrink possession counts, win special teams, and keep Tech behind the chains on early downs. But if Tech stays on schedule (quick game, RPOs, perimeter screens) and protects the ball, the -10.5 profile suggests multiple scoring drives and a fourth-quarter cushion.

No. 1 Ohio State vs Purdue

The board says it all: -29.5 spread and a prohibitive -10000 moneyline. In straight-up terms, this is the ultimate “survive and advance” chalk piece. Purdue’s +3000 number underscores how rare the upset would be according to the listed market. There’s no need to overanalyze — if you’re building parlays or hunting safe legs, Ohio State is the textbook add (bankroll permitting).

The Citadel vs No. 7 Mississippi 

Moneyline prediction: Mississippi (moneyline odds not available)
Odds: Mississippi -54.5; total 64.5.
The straight-up angle is straightforward: SEC depth, speed, and size typically overwhelm an FCS opponent. Mississippi’s tempo and playmaking on the perimeter should stress the Citadel’s defense, while the Rebels’ front seven can attack an option-heavy rushing scheme and force long-yardage downs. The Citadel’s best path is ball control, fourth-down gambles, and winning turnover margin, but sustaining that for four quarters is rare in this mismatch tier.

No. 3 Texas A&M vs No. 19 Missouri

Another ranked duel, but A&M is favored by more than a touchdown and carries a solid -265 moneyline. Missouri at +215 offers some bite for contrarians, yet the market’s combination of spread and vig suggests the Aggies are more likely to impose their plan. With a total near 48.5, a few key red-zone trips could swing it—but moneyline logic favors the team laying -7.5.

No. 6 Oregon vs Iowa

This board projects a lower-scoring grinder, which typically increases variance, but Oregon still sits as a near-touchdown favorite and a sub -250 moneyline. Iowa’s +198 is interesting if you’re hunting price, yet the favorite’s edge in efficiency is implied by the spread. In a total that tight, a single explosive play can matter; we’ll side with the team the market expects to create it more often.

Syracuse vs No. 18 Miami

A four-touchdown spread rarely hides a moneyline surprise. Miami is an overwhelming favorite at home, and the -10000 number mirrors that. Syracuse at +3000 would require a perfect storm of takeaways and explosive plays. Market power rating and home field make the Hurricanes the straightforward pick.

Auburn vs No. 15 Vanderbilt

The Commodores are favored by nearly a touchdown and hold the -245 moneyline against Auburn (+198). That tells us the market sees a moderate edge but not a blowout. With a mid-40s total, possessions and finishing drives loom large. If you’re parlaying favorites, Vandy is the side to include.

No. 24 Washington vs Wisconsin

Laying -11.5 on the spread and -430 straight up, Washington is priced as a decisive road favorite. Wisconsin’s +330 is meaningful value if you think the Badgers can slow tempo and steal a one-possession game, but the listed spread suggests two-score separation more often than not. Moneyline bettors following the market will land on the Huskies.

Wake Forest vs No. 12 Virginia

This looks like a competitive matchup with the ranked Cavaliers still holding a clear advantage. At -255, the moneyline pays modestly but aligns with a spread just under a touchdown. Wake Forest’s +205 invites underdog curiosity, yet the favorite’s number indicates steady control more often than not. If you lean conservative and stick to straight-up picks, Virginia is the recommended side.

California vs No. 14 Louisville

A three-score spread and a -1700 moneyline reflect a lopsided expectation. California’s +890 dangles a massive return, but the market is crystal clear: Louisville should handle business. The total around 50.5 suggests scoring chances, but the gap in power rating implied by -20.5 makes the straight-up choice routine.

LSU vs No. 4 Alabama

A classic brand-name clash with real upset equity priced in. LSU at +300 isn’t a moonshot, but the Tide carry both the line and the moneyline for a reason. If you want the safer moneyline leg, Alabama -385 fits typical parlay construction without getting absurdly expensive. The total in the high 40s hints at a balanced game script rather than a track meet, putting premium on third-down and red-zone execution.

Navy vs No. 10 Notre Dame

The Irish are massive favorites with a four-score spread and a -4000 moneyline. Navy’s +1400 is a longshot payout for upset hunters only. In a game projected to see points, Notre Dame’s offensive efficiency and depth are expected to separate. From a straight-up perspective, especially in parlays, this is one of the most straightforward chalk picks on the slate.

ChatGPT has gone 150-35 so far this season for +101.36 units.