It hasn’t been a perfect season for Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans, but they’ve managed to appear in the initial College Football Playoff Rankings.
Still, with two losses, that leaves no room for error, and that's easier said than done as they host a scrappy Northwestern Wildcats team on Friday night.
While Riley's known for airing it out, my Northwestern vs. USC predictions and college football picks break down why both teams will have the run games rumbling in this Big Ten matchup.
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Northwestern vs USC prediction
Northwestern vs USC best bet: Caleb Komolafe Over 70.5 rushing yards (-114)
If you told Lincoln Riley that his USC Trojans would be 6-2 at this point in the season and ranked 19th in the initial CFP Rankings, I bet he'd take it.
The two losses came against solid teams in Notre Dame and Illinois, and they've notched solid wins against Nebraska and Michigan, but that means they can’t overlook a scrappy Northwestern Wildcats team.
Northwestern has surprised everyone this season with its 5-3 record, which included the final nail in the coffin in what was Penn State’s season in the form of a 22-21 victory as 21-point underdogs.
The Wildcats have an underrated defense, but more importantly, they're well-equipped to take advantage of USC's biggest weakness — their run defense.
Opponents have stampeded all over USC this season. The Trojans rank 74th in EPA per rush and 119th in defensive success rate against the rush, and I expect that to continue in California on Friday night.
That’s because Northwestern has found a new lead back in Caleb Komolafe. The redshirt sophomore has become the bell cow for the Wildcats, and he's rushed for 458 at 5.2 yards per carry over the last five weeks.
He’s gone Over this number in four of the last five games, and there’s no reason to think the Trojans will suddenly be the team to slow him down.
Northwestern vs USC same-game parlay
Komolafe hasn’t just been racking up the yards; he’s been finding paydirt as well. The Wildcats’ back has scored seven touchdowns over the last six games, and he’s found the end zone at least once in five of those games. If Northwestern scores tonight, it’s likely Komolafe has a direct hand in it.
Meanwhile, USC's King Miller has rumbled for 509 yards at a big 7.8 yards per carry, with 357 yards coming in the last three games against Nebraska, Notre Dame, and Michigan. Northwestern ranks 51st in EPA per rush and 82nd in defensive success rate vs. the rush. Miller should go Over 105.5 rushing yards for the third time in four games.
Northwestern vs USC SGP
- Caleb Komolafe Over 70.5 rushing yards
- Caleb Komolafe anytime touchdown
- King Miller Over 105.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Ground and pound
Let's keep this deep-ball SGP simple and take Komolafe to find the end zone not once, but twice. He's done that twice in his last four games.
Northwestern vs USC SGP
- Caleb Komolafe Over 70.5 rushing yards
- Caleb Komolafe 2+ touchdowns
- King Miller Over 105.5 rushing yards
Northwestern vs USC odds
- Spread: Northwestern +15.5 | USC -15.5
- Moneyline: Northwestern +500 | USC -700
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Northwestern vs USC trend to know
Northwestern has cashed its team total Over in five of their last seven games for +2.75 units and a 34% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Northwestern vs USC.
How to watch Northwestern vs USC
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Friday, November 7, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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