The Indiana Hoosiers look to take another step towards an unbeaten regular season when they travel to Happy Valley on Saturday to face the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Fernando Mendoza leads a balanced Hoosier offense and will want to reclaim the top spot in the Heisman race. The Nittany Lions will be hoping to get a huge win in their first home game since the firing of James Franklin.
I explain why that win won’t happen in my Indiana vs. Penn State predictions and college football picks for November 8.
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Indiana vs Penn State prediction
Indiana vs Penn State best bet: Indiana -14.5 (-110)
If this were any given Saturday, and the Penn State Nittany Lions had a decent quarterback, then I’d be looking at this spread and wishing I didn’t have to lay the hook.
But it’s not any given Saturday, and Penn State is relying on Ethan Grunkemeyer, who isn’t good enough.
In his two starts, he’s thrown 56 passes, three of which have been caught by players on scholarship at other schools, and he’s gained just 238 yards with zero touchdowns.
After this Saturday, the Indiana Hoosiers have games remaining against Wisconsin and Purdue. They know that this represents the last possible hurdle between them and an undefeated regular season, and they’ll be ready for it.
Plus, they’ve already won at Iowa and Oregon so that this atmosphere won’t faze them at all.
Penn State’s defense ranks 99th in EPA per drop-back and 75th in EPA/rush. The Hoosiers rank second and third, respectively, in those metrics on offense.
The Nittany Lions can’t get stops on third down, and are facing the most balanced offense they’ll see this year.
They’ll try and fail to run the ball on the fourth-best EPA/rush defense in college football, and then Grunkemeyer will face an Indiana defense ranked fifth in pressure rate, fourth in late down success, first in quality drive rate, and first in points per quality drive.
And if they do reach the red zone, the Hoosiers also rank second defensively inside the 20.
There is no blueprint for success that the Nittany Lions can follow to secure a win, and once the Hoosiers force them to abandon the run, the game will get out of hand, with Indiana winning by at least three scores.
Indiana vs Penn State same-game parlay
Kaelon Black has become Indiana’s leading rusher, despite nearly 30 fewer carries than Roman Hemby, and has averaged 7.2 yards a carry over the last three weeks. He’s gotten double-digit carries in seven of nine games this season, and has a low floor against a Penn State defense ranked 108th in missed tackle rate and 74th in rushing success rate.
Fernando Mendoza’s gonna need to post some stats if he wants that Heisman, and he’s rushed for touchdowns in each of his last two games. Indiana ranks 12th in EPA from designed QB runs, and the Nittany Lions rank 10th-worst in that metric.
In their last four games, they’ve allowed quarterbacks to run for five touchdowns, and Mendoza will have chances to pick one up here.
Indiana vs Penn State SGP
- Indiana -14.5
- Kaelon Black Over 47.5 rushing yards
- Fernando Mendoza anytime touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Hoosiers Roll!
You have to go back to Indiana’s opener against Old Dominion to find the last time the Hoosiers didn’t lead by at least four points after the first quarter. They’ve yet to be held without a touchdown in the opening period this season, and this won’t be the week that changes.
Grunkemeyer is facing an Indiana defense that will get after him repeatedly and is holding opponents to less than 185 passing yards per game. The Hoosiers rank fifth in interception rate, so takeaways are almost a certainty, and their ability to put together time-consuming drives will limit their opportunities to throw as well.
Indiana vs Penn State SGP
- Indiana -14.5
- Kaelon Black Over 47.5 rushing yards
- Fernando Mendoza anytime touchdown
- Indiana Hoosiers 1Q -3.5
- Ethan Grunkemeyer Under 143.5 passing yards
Indiana vs Penn State odds
- Spread: Indiana -13.5 (-110) | Penn State +13.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Indiana -625 | Penn State +450
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-110) | Under 49.5 (-110)
Indiana vs Penn State trend to know
Indiana has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 63% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Indiana vs Penn State.
How to watch Indiana vs Penn State
| Location | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date | Saturday, November 8, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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