As we roll into the Saturday nightcap, whether we are up or down on the day, we will be looking for a way to finish on a high note with our college football picks.
Headlined by the Oregon State Beavers looking to find their footing after two tough losses to open the season, here are a few college football long-shot picks worth looking into for Sept. 19.
College football long-shot picks for Saturday night
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Fresno State vs  San Jose State |
San Jose State ML | 33% |
| MO Montana vs  Oregon State |
Oregon State -17.5 | 36% |
 Purdue vs  UCLA |
Purdue +7.5 | 36% |
| 💰 All three parlayed | 3-leg combo | 4.76x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps. Lines subject to change.
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College football long-shot picks & predictions
Long-shot pick: San Jose State moneyline
The San Jose State Spartans have been on my radar for the past few days, mainly because I’ve had constant interest in backing their quarterback’s passing yards prop.
Senior Luke Weaver can absolutely sling the pill, as he showcased in Week 0 against USC. He threw for more than 230 yards, completing 21 of his 32 pass attempts while accounting for three touchdowns — all against a Trojans defense we were led to believe would be much improved from years past.
Following that tough loss, the Spartans went on a two-game winning streak with victories over Eastern Michigan and Cal Poly. They now host Fresno State this weekend and find themselves as nearly seven-point underdogs to the Bulldogs.
Fresno State was unable to make things interesting when it played USC, losing 39-0. Following that game, the Bulldogs went on to destroy Sacramento State, 49-3.
This game will likely come down to whether Weaver and the Spartans can find success through the air. If so, they can absolutely secure the outright win over the Bulldogs.
And yes, I like the Over on Weaver’s passing yards, too.
Long-shot pick: Oregon State -17.5
Oregon State should be sick and tired of getting their tailpipes spanked.
To kick off the 2026 season, the Beavers had to take on No. 22 Houston and No. 13 Texas Tech. Despite losing both matchups, they covered the spread in each. They lost those games by an average of 24 points while entering both as more than 20-point underdogs.
This week, Oregon State draws Montana, which has not played a soul yet this season, beating Southern Utah, Drake, and Utah Tech in its first three games. In the Grizzlies' season opener against the Thunderbirds, they were outgained by almost 200 yards in their 28-21 victory.
With how tested the Beavers have been to kick off the year, they should be out for blood in this matchup. Oregon State needs its first win of the season, and it should come by a lot more than 17.5 points.
The Grizzlies will be in for a long evening in Corvallis.
Long-shot pick: Purdue +7.5
“But bu- the Boilermakers are traveling from Indiana to Los Angeles. That is a ton of travel.”
Yeah, it is a lot of travel, which allows this Purdue team to marinate on their brutal double-overtime loss to Wake Forest last week.
Despite the final scores, UCLA has really kept its opponents close in the early going this season. Eventually, that will come back to bite the Bruins.
This is a spot where the Boilermakers can aim for the underdog victory they deserved a week ago, when they were robbed after Wake Forest converted a fourth-and-15 that eventually led to the game-winning touchdown.
Take the +14.5, or take the more fun sweat of +7.5. Either way, the Boilermakers will come out swinging against the Bruins.
College football long-shot combo
San Jose State moneyline
Oregon State -17.5
Purdue +7.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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