One of the marquee matchups in college football for Week 11 sees the No. 9 Oregon Ducks face the No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium.
Let’s take a closer look at Iowa running back Kamari Moulton’s rushing yardage prop, as Oregon’s defensive philosophy, combined with the weather, means his prop could hold some value.
See why my Oregon vs. Iowa predictions and college football picks on Saturday, November 8, are bullish on Moulton.
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Oregon vs Iowa prediction
Oregon vs Iowa best bet: Kamari Moulton Over 54.5 rushing yards (-114)
Dan Lanning is a Kirby Smart disciple, who himself is a member of the Nick Saban coaching tree. Lanning has his Oregon Ducks following the same defensive philosophies of his predecessors, especially in operating the Mint defense.
Put simply, Oregon recognizes that, in the modern game of college football, games are won and lost through the air — not the ground. The Ducks are content to allow opponents to gain yardage by running the ball, so long as they devote extra bodies to slowing down the pass.
As it seems to happen every year (ahem, not a coincidence), Oregon’s numbers are much better against the pass (eighth in EPA per pass allowed) than the run (80th). It’s a comical stylistic clash in Week 11 because the Iowa Hawkeyes are generally content to keep the ball on the ground, and they’ll likely take what’s given to them.
Running back Kamari Moulton has seen steady volume (14+ carries in five consecutive games) and has responded with consistent production (68+ rushing yards in all five). His rushing yardage prop of 54.5 does not make sense considering his opponent’s defensive philosophy and his own recent effectiveness.
Oregon vs Iowa same-game parlay
Moulton’s rushing yardage prop doesn’t correlate with either moneyline side, in my opinion, as Oregon has been winning darn near every football game it's played for the last three years, all while having underwhelming rushing defense metrics.
The Ducks are the superior team, possessing quality on both sides of the ball (second in EPA per play on offense, 15th on defense), whereas the Hawkeyes lag behind offensively because they create the least explosive plays of any team in the country.
It’ll be a cold (42 to 46 degrees), windy (9 to 11 mph), and rainy (73%) day at Kinnick Stadium, and neither team plays at a fast tempo, so points will be at a premium.
Oregon vs Iowa SGP
- Kamari Moulton Over 54.5 rushing yards
- Under 40.5
- Oregon moneyline
Our deep-ball SGP: Mark my words!
Although Moulton has been the consistent yardage producer on the ground, quarterback Mark Gronowski has been the goal-line vulture. Gronowski has 11 touchdowns to Moulton’s two, and the signal-caller has found the end zone in every game this season.
Oregon vs Iowa SGP
- Kamari Moulton Over 54.5 rushing yards
- Mark Gronowski anytime touchdown
- Under 40.5
- Oregon moneyline
Oregon vs Iowa odds
- Spread: Oregon -6.5 | Iowa +6.5
- Moneyline: Oregon -235 | Iowa +200
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 | Under 40.5
Oregon vs Iowa trend to know
Kamari Moulton has rushed for more than 54.5 yards in five consecutive games. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Iowa.
How to watch Oregon vs Iowa
| Location | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA |
| Date | Saturday, November 8, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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Oregon vs Iowa weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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