Week 3 has some of the best non-conference Group of Six action of the season, including a potential shootout in the Lone Star State and a load of after-dark games featuring top teams from the Mountain West and Pac-12.
The biggest game in my Group of Six picks is a clash between James Madison and San Diego State, two conference championship hopefuls, while my favorite G6 college football picks focus on a game between the FBS' newest members and an underrated Oregon State team.
Week 3 Group of 6 college football picks
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| Matchup | Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|---|
 North Texasvs  Texas State |
⬆️ o61.5 | 56% |
 James Madison vs  San Diego State |
+2.5 |
50% |
 North Dakota State vs  Sacramento State |
-27.5 |
50% |
 Fresno Statevs  San Jose State |
-5.5 |
54% |
 Montana vs  Oregon State |
⬆️ o51.5 | 54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
North Texas vs Texas State: ⬆️ Over 61.5
North Texas and Texas State had completely different experiences in Week 2. The Mean Green beat UNLV by 38 points as a 2.5-point underdog, while the Bobcats lost as a 1.5-point favorite to a UTSA team that scored a touchdown in the final seconds.
This week, both offenses should be on full display because neither team has a strong defense. Both rank outside the Top 100 in EPA per pass and available yards percentage, while both have offenses ranked Top 75 by SP+.
Last season, Texas State QB Brad Jackson was one of just two QBs in the country with 20+ passing touchdowns and 15+ rushing touchdowns. This season, UNT QB Tayven Jackson is Top 25 in QBR (82.8) and big-time throw rate (6.9%).
Get your popcorn ready for these QBs against these defenses. I like the Over at 62.5 or better.
James Madison vs San Diego State: James Madison +2.5
The Billy Napier era at James Madison has gotten off to a best-case-scenario start. The Dukes already beat a Liberty team many expected to win Conference USA, and last week they trashed Wagner, scoring a school-record 87 points.
This is a clash-of-styles game between JMU and San Diego State, with the Aztecs living and dying by their defense. Despite Sean Lewis' offensive background, San Diego State is ranked 93rd on offense by SP+ and 122nd in available yards percentage.
James Madison's offense, ranked 19th in success rate (54%), will only need a few explosive plays to keep this game close. Between the Dukes' run game (46th in EPA per rush) and special teams (zero missed kicks, three return touchdowns), I think they could win outright, but I like them at +1.5 or better.
North Dakota State vs Sacramento State: North Dakota State -27.5
The two newest FBS members take the field against each other in ESPN's after-dark timeslot (10:30 p.m. ET) in a game that could be ugly for Sacramento State. Unlike the Hornets, North Dakota State was actually ready to make the jump from the FCS after winning 10 championships over the past 15 years.
Now, the Bison look like a G6 College Football Playoff contender early in their FBS tenure. Tim Polasek's team has outscored opponents 109-39 so far, with an offense that's 33rd in EPA per rush and one of the highest-ranked G6 defenses by SP+. (52nd).
The Bison have yet another NFL prospect at QB in Nathan Hayes, who should shred a Sac State defense ranked 93rd in EPA per pass and 129th by SP+.
This will be a blowout, and I like NDSU to cover up to -28.5.
Fresno State vs San Jose State: Fresno State -5.5
Don't let San Jose State's performance against USC fool you; this team is nowhere near as talented as the Fresno State team that lost 39-0 to the Trojans. San Jose State was down 35-3 in the third quarter to USC when Lincoln Riley pulled all of his starters and the Spartans put up garbage-time points.
And while SJSU has won two games since then, they came against two teams ranked outside of the Top 130 by SP+, and they only outscored them 57-41. Meanwhile, Fresno State is ranked 75th by SP+ (49th on defense) and just beat Sacramento State by 46 points.
If the Bulldogs, who are averaging 11 pressures per game, can get after Luke Weaver, they can disrupt San Jose State's pass-first approach. Weaver has nearly as many career turnover-worthy plays (11) as TD passes (14).
Fresno State is in play at -6.5 or better.
Montana vs Oregon State: ⬆️ Over 51.5
One of my biggest takeaways two weeks into the college football season is that Oregon State hit a home run by hiring JaMarcus Shephard, who then hit a pair of home runs himself by adding Mercer transfer Braden Atkinson at QB and three-star freshman Jesse Legree at wide receiver.
Atkinson and Legree have helped the Beavers go toe-to-toe with Houston and Texas Tech over their first two games, two defenses ranked Top 45 by SP+. Despite those losses, Atkinson is Top five in the country in passing yards (789), and Legree leads the nation in receiving yards (376).
And while Montana is one of the top FCS programs, its defense is susceptible (ranked 126 by SP+), but its offense should do damage against the Beavers. The Grizzlies have one of the top FCS QBs in Keali'i Ah Yat, who led the FCS in passing yards last year (4,070).
This game is worth staying up for (11 p.m. ET kickoff) because these teams are capable of offensive fireworks (I like the Over at 52.5 or better).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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