College Football AI Predictions Week 3: ATS Picks & Score Predictions for Every Game

Our college football AI predictions went 20-2 straight up and 14-8 against the spread across last week's featured matchups to bring us back above .500. This week, we're generating score predictions for all 75 Week 3 games involving an FBS team, including the biggest matchups to complement our Week 3 moneyline picks.

Each score projection is generated based on the matchup itself before checking the best prediction market apps to derive ATS and Over/Under picks from the available lines. We're tracking the top matchups first; scroll to the bottom for complete AI picks and score predictions.

Featured college football AI picks for Week 3

The following college football AI picks include our featured matchups as determined by our Covers experts, which include most top-25 matchups and key rivalries for Week 3.

2026 featured picks record: SU 47-5 | ATS 27-25 | O/U 23-29

Matchup	ATS pick	O/U pick	Score prediction
UTSA at No. 1 Texas	+30.5	U58.5	Texas 39-16
No. 2 Georgia at Arkansas	+24.5	O54.5	Georgia 39-20
Michigan State at No. 3 Notre Dame	+29.5	O51.5	Notre Dame 40-16
Western Kentucky at No. 4 Indiana	+44.5	O60.5	Indiana 54-13
No. 5 Miami at Wake Forest	+20.5	U56.5	Miami 36-20
Kent State at No. 6 Ohio State	+52.5	U59.5	Ohio State 49-7
No. 7 LSU at No. 8 Ole Miss	+2.5	U57.5	LSU 28-27
Kentucky at No. 9 Texas A&M	-16.5	O49.5	Texas A&M 42-14
Florida State at No. 10 Alabama	-20.5	O48.5	Alabama 38-16
No. 11 BYU at Colorado State	+17.5	O52.5	BYU 34-20
No. 12 USC at Rutgers	+23.5	O59.5	USC 41-21
No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech	-7.5	U52.5	Texas Tech 31-21
Buffalo at No. 14 Penn State	+41.5	U49.5	Penn State 38-10
Kennesaw State at No. 15 Tennessee	+35.5	U59.5	Tennessee 42-17
No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville	-1.5	U59.5	Louisville 31-27
Utah State at No. 17 Utah	-27.5	O56.5	Utah 44-14
Northern Iowa at No. 18 Iowa	-38.5	O49.5	Iowa 48-3
UTEP at No. 19 Michigan	+35.5	U48.5	Michigan 35-10
Troy at No. 20 Missouri	+27.5	U49.5	Missouri 35-13
Portland State at No. 21 Oregon	PRST +57.5	O68.5	Oregon 61-12
New Mexico at No. 24 Oklahoma	+21.5	U47.5	Oklahoma 28-17
West Virginia vs. No. 25 Virginia	-10.5	U53.5	Virginia 31-19
Syracuse at Pittsburgh	-10.5	U51.5	Pittsburgh 34-15

Lines courtesy of Kalshi and subject to change. Final ATS and O/U selections are graded against the exact line at time of publish.

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College football Week 3 AI predictions

UTSA vs. Texas AI prediction

Texas just survived Ohio State 24-23, so another Longhorns win would be no surprise. Covering more than four touchdowns is a different assignment. Our 39-16 projection leaves room for UTSA +30.5, with the Roadrunners coming off a 31-26 win at Texas State. The combined 55 points also stay below 58.5. Texas gets the comfortable result, but the visitors get the ATS pick.

Score prediction: Texas 39, UTSA 16

Georgia vs. Arkansas AI prediction

Georgia scored 70 against Western Kentucky last week, while Arkansas managed only 10 in a loss at Utah. That makes a big Bulldogs number understandable. Still, the model lands on a 19-point road win, short of the 24.5-point spread. Arkansas gets the points, and its projected 20-point contribution is enough to help push this matchup Over 54.5 without requiring another Georgia scoring avalanche.

Score prediction: Georgia 39, Arkansas 20

Michigan State vs. Notre Dame AI prediction

Notre Dame shut out Rice 52-0, but Michigan State brings a different test after beating Eastern Michigan 35-7. The Irish remain the clear winner in our projection, with a 40-16 scoreline. That 24-point margin puts Michigan State +29.5 on the card. The total goes the other way: 56 combined points clear 51.5, so this is an underdog-and-Over pairing despite the comfortable Notre Dame win.

Score prediction: Notre Dame 40, Michigan State 16

Western Kentucky vs. Indiana AI prediction

Indiana blanked Howard 55-0, while Western Kentucky is trying to regroup after allowing 70 at Georgia. Our projection gives the Hilltoppers another long afternoon, but their 13 points matter to both selections. Indiana's 54-13 win falls short of covering 44.5, sending the ATS pick to Western Kentucky. The 67-point sum also clears 60.5, with most of that scoring burden resting on the Hoosiers.

Score prediction: Indiana 54, Western Kentucky 13

Miami vs. Wake Forest AI prediction

Miami's 77-7 win over Florida A&M supplied plenty of highlights, but Friday brings a conference road trip and a much tighter projection. Wake Forest is coming off a 38-36 win at Purdue, and our 36-20 score gives the Demon Deacons enough room at +20.5. The total is especially close: 56 projected points sit just half a point below 56.5. That's a narrow Under lean.

Score prediction: Miami 36, Wake Forest 20

Kent State vs. Ohio State AI prediction

Ohio State returns home after losing 24-23 at Texas, and the model has the Buckeyes taking care of Kent State comfortably. The challenge is the price: a projected 49-7 win still doesn't cover 52.5. Kent State gets the ATS selection after beating Wofford 36-15 last week. With the Golden Flashes held to single digits in this projection, Under 59.5 rounds out the picks.

Score prediction: Ohio State 49, Kent State 7

LSU vs. Ole Miss AI prediction

Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford gives this matchup an obvious storyline, but our score makes the football just as compelling. LSU edges Ole Miss 28-27 after both teams won comfortably last week. A one-point Tigers win leaves Ole Miss +2.5 as the ATS play, while 55 combined points come in below 57.5. The model separates the straight-up winner from the team getting the points here.

Score prediction: LSU 28, Ole Miss 27

Kentucky vs. Texas A&M AI prediction

Kentucky's schedule doesn't offer much relief after a 45-17 loss to Alabama. Texas A&M just beat Arizona State 48-20, and the model gives the Aggies another strong home showing at 42-14. That projected four-touchdown gap clears the 16.5-point spread. Kentucky's contribution is also enough to take the combined score to 56, putting Over 49.5 alongside Texas A&M on this card.

Score prediction: Texas A&M 42, Kentucky 14

Florida State vs. Alabama AI prediction

Alabama handled Kentucky 45-17 last week, while Florida State's most recent result was a 27-24 loss to SMU. Our projection gives the Crimson Tide another decisive win at 38-16. The 22-point margin supports Alabama -20.5, though it leaves only a little room against that number. With the Seminoles projected to contribute 16 points, the 54-point total also produces an Over 48.5 selection.

Score prediction: Alabama 38, Florida State 16

BYU vs. Colorado State AI prediction

BYU beat Arizona 28-17 last week and remains the projected winner on the road, but Colorado State gets more respect than a 17.5-point spread suggests. The Rams scored 58 against Southern Utah, and the model gives them 20 here in a 34-20 loss. That makes Colorado State the ATS pick. The 54-point sum sits only 1.5 above 52.5, making the Over a modest lean.

Score prediction: BYU 34, Colorado State 20

USC vs. Rutgers AI prediction

USC scored 49 against Louisiana last week, although allowing 30 kept that game from becoming a complete runaway. Rutgers arrives off a 28-21 loss at Boston College. Our projection still favors the Trojans clearly, 41-21, but a 20-point road win doesn't cover 23.5. Rutgers gets the points, and those projected three touchdowns help send the combined score Over 59.5.

Score prediction: USC 41, Rutgers 21

Houston vs. Texas Tech AI prediction

Texas Tech won 35-24 at Oregon State, while Houston overwhelmed Southern 77-6. Friday offers a much more useful head-to-head test than those scorelines alone. The model gives the Red Raiders a 31-21 win, enough for Texas Tech -7.5. The total is much tighter: 52 points sit just below 52.5. Treat the Under as a thin numerical lean, even with Tech projected to reach the 30s.

Score prediction: Texas Tech 31, Houston 21

Buffalo vs. Penn State AI prediction

Penn State held Temple to nine points last week, and the model gives Buffalo only 10 in this matchup. That supports a comfortable Nittany Lions win, but the projected 38-10 result is still well inside a 41.5-point spread. Buffalo gets the ATS nod after losing 33-20 at FIU. With just 48 combined points on the scoreline, Under 49.5 is the companion selection.

Score prediction: Penn State 38, Buffalo 10

Kennesaw State vs. Tennessee AI prediction

Tennessee's 45-24 win at Georgia Tech showed plenty of scoring, and the Volunteers are projected to reach 42 here. Kennesaw State, coming off a 31-17 loss to Georgia State, gets 17 in return. That leaves a 25-point margin against a 35.5-point spread, so the Owls are the ATS pick. The projected total of 59 barely stays Under 59.5; there isn't much separation on that side.

Score prediction: Tennessee 42, Kennesaw State 17

SMU vs. Louisville AI prediction

Both teams piled up points last week: SMU beat UC Davis 56-10, and Louisville defeated Villanova 59-13. The model brings them back toward each other in a 31-27 Cardinals win. Louisville -1.5 gets the ATS selection, while the combined 58 points land below 59.5. With only four points between the teams, this is one of the tighter projected finishes in the featured slate.

Score prediction: Louisville 31, SMU 27

Utah State vs. Utah AI prediction

Utah just beat Arkansas 43-10, while Utah State nearly pulled off a road win at Washington before falling 16-14. This in-state meeting draws a much wider projection: Utah 44, Utah State 14. The 30-point margin clears 27.5, putting the Utes on the ATS card. The total of 58 is only 1.5 above the selected line, so Over 56.5 comes with a smaller cushion.

Score prediction: Utah 44, Utah State 14

Northern Iowa vs. Iowa AI prediction

Iowa needed a 16-13 win to get past Iowa State, but the model projects far more breathing room against Northern Iowa. A 48-3 score gives the Hawkeyes enough separation to cover 38.5. The total is less emphatic: 51 projected points clear 49.5 by only 1.5. Most of the Over case therefore depends on Iowa supplying the offense, with little expected from the visiting Panthers.

Score prediction: Iowa 48, Northern Iowa 3

UTEP vs. Michigan AI prediction

Michigan beat Oklahoma 17-10 last week, while UTEP put up 51 against Texas Southern. Our projection brings the Miners back down to 10 points and sends the Wolverines to a 35-10 win. That's comfortable on the scoreboard but short of a 35.5-point spread, so UTEP gets the ATS play. The combined 45 points also stay below 48.5 for the Under selection.

Score prediction: Michigan 35, UTEP 10

Troy vs. Missouri AI prediction

Missouri returns from a 38-21 win at Kansas, and Troy arrives after beating Alabama State 34-17. The Tigers are projected to win again, 35-13, but the 22-point margin leaves the Trojans inside +27.5. The model also keeps Troy's scoring contribution low enough for an Under: 48 combined points sit below 49.5. Missouri is the straight-up choice, with Troy getting the spread protection.

Score prediction: Missouri 35, Troy 13

Portland State vs. Oregon AI prediction

Oregon is coming off a 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State, and the model sees a substantial response against Portland State. Even a 61-12 Ducks win, though, leaves the Vikings inside a 57.5-point spread. Portland State allowed 53 at San Diego State last week, so the projected scoring burden is hardly shared evenly. Oregon's big number drives the combined 73 points Over 68.5.

Score prediction: Oregon 61, Portland State 12

New Mexico vs. Oklahoma AI prediction

Oklahoma scored only 10 in its loss at Michigan, while New Mexico hung 70 on Mercyhurst. Those were very different assignments, and our projection settles at a 28-17 Sooners win. An 11-point margin makes New Mexico +21.5 the ATS selection. The total comes in at 45, below 47.5, with Oklahoma projected to win through a relatively restrained score rather than a blowout.

Score prediction: Oklahoma 28, New Mexico 17

West Virginia vs. Virginia AI prediction

Virginia beat Norfolk State 59-3 last week, and West Virginia defeated UT Martin 52-7. This neutral-site matchup offers a closer comparison, with the model projecting Virginia to win 31-19. The Cavaliers clear a 10.5-point spread by just 1.5, so the ATS lean is fairly narrow. The combined 50 points fall below 53.5, making Under the total selection after those lopsided wins.

Score prediction: Virginia 31, West Virginia 19

Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh AI prediction

Pittsburgh squeezed past UCF 12-7 last week, while Syracuse lost 21-18 to California. The model sees considerably more separation Thursday, giving the Panthers a 34-15 win. That supports Pittsburgh -10.5, with the Orange's projected 15 points keeping the total down despite a stronger Pitt scoring output. The combined 49 points fall below 51.5, pairing the home favorite with the Under.

Score prediction: Pittsburgh 34, Syracuse 15

College football AI picks for every Week 3 game

We are tracking AI score predictions, ATS picks, Over/Under picks, kickoff times, and TV channels for all 75 Week 3 games involving at least one FBS team. Games are listed chronologically by kickoff.

2026 record for every game: SU 164-21 | ATS 88-96 | O/U 92-92

Date / time	Matchup	ATS pick	O/U pick	Score prediction
Thu., Sept. 17 7:30 p.m. ET ESPN	SYR at PITT	-10.5	U51.5	Pittsburgh 34-15
Fri., Sept. 18 7:30 p.m. ET ESPN	MIA at WAKE	+20.5	U56.5	Miami 36-20
Fri., Sept. 18 8:00 p.m. ET FOX	HOU at TTU	-7.5	U52.5	Texas Tech 31-21
Fri., Sept. 18 10:30 p.m. ET BTN	PRST at ORE	PRST +57.5	O68.5	Oregon 61-12
Sat., Sept. 19 11:30 a.m. ET CBSSN	CCU at DEL	-4.5	O57.5	Delaware 34-24
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET ABC	UGA at ARK	+24.5	O54.5	Georgia 39-20
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET ESPN2	TULN at KSU	+20.5	U49.5	Kansas State 32-14
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET ESPNU	BGSU at ISU	-23.5	U42.5	Iowa State 34-7
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET FS1	ASU vs. KU	+5.5	O51.5	Arizona State 30-25
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET ACC Network	MER at GT	MER +38.5	O59.5	Georgia Tech 52-14
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET ESPN / Disney+	UNC at CLEM	-3.5	U42.5	Clemson 21-16
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET BTN	AKR at MINN	+23.5	O49.5	Minnesota 33-17
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET FOX	KENT at OSU	+52.5	U59.5	Ohio State 49-7
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET BTN	BUFF at PSU	+41.5	U49.5	Penn State 38-10
Sat., Sept. 19 12:00 p.m. ET USA Net	UNT at TXST	+2.5	O62.5	North Texas 42-27
Sat., Sept. 19 12:30 p.m. ET Peacock	EMU at WIS	+23.5	U45.5	Wisconsin 24-14
Sat., Sept. 19 12:45 p.m. ET SEC Network	NCSU at VAN	-3.5	O50.5	Vanderbilt 33-24
Sat., Sept. 19 1:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	WYO at CMU	-1.5	U37.5	Central Michigan 17-14
Sat., Sept. 19 2:00 p.m. ET ACCNX	ME at BC	ME +38.5	O53.5	Boston College 48-10
Sat., Sept. 19 2:00 p.m. ET Peacock	SIU at ILL	SIU +38.5	O54.5	Illinois 48-13
Sat., Sept. 19 3:00 p.m. ET CBSSN	TEM at TOL	-5.5	U50.5	Toledo 31-17
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET ABC	FSU at ALA	-20.5	O48.5	Alabama 38-16
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET ESPN	UK at TA&M	-16.5	O49.5	Texas A&M 42-14
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET ESPN+	M-OH at CIN	-14.5	O49.5	Cincinnati 36-17
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET FOX	USU at UTAH	-27.5	O56.5	Utah 44-14
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET ESPN2	SMU at LOU	-1.5	U59.5	Louisville 31-27
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET ACC Network	WAG at CAL	Not listed	Not listed	California 58-10
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET BTN	UTEP at MICH	+35.5	U48.5	Michigan 35-10
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET CBS	USC at RUTG	+23.5	O59.5	USC 41-21
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET USA Net	DUQ at WSU	-38.5	U53.5	Washington State 45-3
Sat., Sept. 19 3:30 p.m. ET ESPN+	STO at MASS	STO +33.5	O50.5	UMass 40-17
Sat., Sept. 19 4:00 p.m. ET CW	STAN at DUKE	-9.5	O51.5	Duke 35-17
Sat., Sept. 19 4:00 p.m. ET Peacock	WKU at IU	+44.5	O60.5	Indiana 54-13
Sat., Sept. 19 4:00 p.m. ET FS1	UNI at IOWA	-38.5	O49.5	Iowa 48-3
Sat., Sept. 19 4:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	BALL at LIB	-14.5	U49.5	Liberty 31-16
Sat., Sept. 19 4:00 p.m. ET ESPNU	LT at BAY	+18.5	O53.5	Baylor 31-24
Sat., Sept. 19 4:15 p.m. ET SEC Network	MSST at SC	+3.5	U58.5	South Carolina 28-26
Sat., Sept. 19 4:30 p.m. ET ESPN+	SELA at ULM	-10.5	O48.5	ULM 37-17
Sat., Sept. 19 6:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	ECU at ODU	-2.5	O49.5	Old Dominion 27-23
Sat., Sept. 19 6:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	FIU at FAU	+6.5	O62.5	FIU 34-30
Sat., Sept. 19 6:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	CLT at APP	-17.5	O52.5	App State 38-17
Sat., Sept. 19 6:30 p.m. ET CBSSN	MRSH at MOST	+4.5	O52.5	Missouri State 29-24
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN	FLA at AUB	+2.5	U52.5	Auburn 24-20
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET SECN+	TROY at MIZ	+27.5	U49.5	Missouri 35-13
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	GAST at UCF	+17.5	U50.5	UCF 31-16
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	MUR at OKST	MUR +54.5	U71.5	Oklahoma State 44-11
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	CONN at USM	+3.5	O54.5	UConn 30-27
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	UTM at MEM	-35.5	O56.5	Memphis 51-10
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	WMU at RICE	-9.5	U43.5	Western Michigan 24-14
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	DSU at USF	-37.5	O61.5	South Florida 55-9
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	NEV at MTSU	+3.5	U49.5	Middle Tennessee 23-21
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	OHIO at USA	+6.5	O48.5	South Alabama 31-26
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	GASO at JXST	-3.5	U52.5	Jacksonville State 27-20
Sat., Sept. 19 7:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	NICH at SHSU	-18.5	O50.5	Sam Houston 43-14
Sat., Sept. 19 7:15 p.m. ET BTN	UND at NEB	-24.5	O51.5	Nebraska 55-14
Sat., Sept. 19 7:15 p.m. ET BTN	EWU at WASH	-41.5	O57.5	Washington 52-9
Sat., Sept. 19 7:30 p.m. ET ABC	LSU at MISS	+2.5	U57.5	LSU 28-27
Sat., Sept. 19 7:30 p.m. ET ESPN2	UNM at OU	+21.5	U47.5	Oklahoma 28-17
Sat., Sept. 19 7:30 p.m. ET CBS	BYU at CSU	+17.5	O52.5	BYU 34-20
Sat., Sept. 19 7:30 p.m. ET FOX	COLO at NU	-3.5	U47.5	Northwestern 24-20
Sat., Sept. 19 7:30 p.m. ET ACC Network	WVU vs. UVA	-10.5	U53.5	Virginia 31-19
Sat., Sept. 19 7:30 p.m. ET FS1	VT at MD	+2.5	O53.5	Maryland 31-24
Sat., Sept. 19 7:30 p.m. ET NBC	MSU at ND	+29.5	O51.5	Notre Dame 40-16
Sat., Sept. 19 7:45 p.m. ET SEC Network	KENN at TENN	+35.5	U59.5	Tennessee 42-17
Sat., Sept. 19 8:00 p.m. ET SECN+	UTSA at TEX	+30.5	U58.5	Texas 39-16
Sat., Sept. 19 8:00 p.m. ET ESPNU	ARST at TCU	+20.5	U56.5	TCU 33-20
Sat., Sept. 19 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	ETAM at TLSA	ETAM +42.5	O56.5	Tulsa 45-13
Sat., Sept. 19 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN+	UAB at UL	-7.5	O56.5	Louisiana 36-24
Sat., Sept. 19 10:00 p.m. ET CBSSN	SDAK at BOIS	-24.5	O57.5	Boise State 53-10
Sat., Sept. 19 10:00 p.m. ET CW	JMU at SDSU	+2.5	U47.5	James Madison 28-17
Sat., Sept. 19 10:30 p.m. ET TNT	NIU at ARIZ	+33.5	U50.5	Arizona 35-10
Sat., Sept. 19 10:30 p.m. ET ESPN	NDSU at SAC	+27.5	U51.5	North Dakota State 27-19
Sat., Sept. 19 11:00 p.m. ET BTN	PUR at UCLA	-14.5	O52.5	UCLA 35-20
Sat., Sept. 19 11:00 p.m. ET USA Net	MONT at ORST	-17.5	O52.5	Oregon State 41-14
Sat., Sept. 19 11:00 p.m. ET FS1	FRES at SJSU	-6.5	U48.5	Fresno State 28-20

Kickoff times and TV listings are current as of publication and subject to change. Market lines are also subject to change. Kalshi had not listed a spread or total for Wagner vs. California at the time of the market check.

How our college football AI predictions work

Our college football AI predictions use a custom forecasting process to project a final score for each matchup using preseason team strength, separate offensive and defensive ratings, opponent-adjusted results, home-field context, and historical scoring variation.

Each score projection is locked before the final Kalshi market snapshot used for publication. Those projected scores are then compared with the representative spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under selections.

We’ll continue updating the process as the season develops and publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection.

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