College Football Underdog Picks & Upset Predictions for Week 0

Colby Marchio - Contributor at Covers.com
Colby Marchio • Betting Analyst 7+ years betting experience
Updated: Aug 27, 2026 , 01:20 PM ET • 4 min read

The electric play of Micah Alejado will lead the Rainbow Warriors to victory

College Football Week 0 Underdog Picks
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Micah Alejado (12) looks to make a pass against the UNLV Rebels

Welcome to Week 0, college football die-hards! For those who may be new to the holiday, I sincerely hope you enjoy it!

Why wait any longer? Let’s dive into some of these college football underdog picks, highlighted by the North Carolina Tar Heels in Dublin.

Afterward, be sure to check out our college football picks page to see what else our experts are on this weekend. 

CFB Week 0 underdog picks

Pick Kalshi
Probability
UNC North Carolina  26%
NC State NC State 36%
Hawaii Hawaii 37%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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UNC North Carolina

Kalshi probability: 26%

Despite the embarrassing first season under NFL legend Bill Belichick, North Carolina is an easy fade target to kick off the 2026 college football season.

However, with everything going into this week's matchup — including the travel, preparation, and the looming possibility of visiting the Guinness Brewery — the Tar Heels could catch the TCU Horned Frogs overlooking them after demolishing them by 34 points on their home turf nearly a year ago.

This may not be the most exciting Tar Heels team, but they did a lot of good this offseason to ensure improvement. One was bringing in Bobby Petrino to try and spark this offense.

Second, last season their defense was their saving grace, which should be enough to keep them in this game against what should be a talented Horned Frogs offense.

With the weather likely keeping this game low scoring, hopefully the Tar Heels can take advantage of the close game.

NC State NC State

Kalshi probability: 36%

I love the Kool-Aid! NC State always has some hype surrounding the program, making this year "the year," yet it seems to always fall short. 

Maybe this writer is buying into the hype yet again, but returning star quarterback CJ Bailey is one of the main reasons to buy into the Wolfpack.

They also add a few tight ends who could be major safety blankets for Bailey. Last season, NC State was one of three FBS teams that had tight ends accounting for 80 targets and 10 touchdowns. Hopefully, Vander Poog and Hunter Provience can make a difference.

Plus, Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott having to completely rebuild his team for a second consecutive season is a major turnoff. Sure, this is the new age of college sports, but the lack of familiarity and continuity is a major turnoff early on.

Hawaii Hawaii

Kalshi probability: 37%

Hearing people call this matchup a "revenge game" for Stanford in the year of our lord 2026 is hysterical.

Yes, Stanford did return 12 starters, but the landscape of college sports is not the same as it was in 2006 or 2016. This is Tavita Pritchard's first season with the program and as a head coach. It's impressive that he was able to return that many guys.

However, Hawaii is being disrespected in this matchup. Sure, the Rainbow Warriors are off the island, and that is always a way to fade them, but are we really going to forget how electrifying Micah Alejado was last season?

Despite playing hurt for most of the year due to an early-season ankle injury that happened in last year's matchup, if he is fully healthy and has improved his craft, the Rainbow Warriors losing star receiver Jackson Harris will be irrelevant.

With Stanford signing literally nobody this offseason (fewest signed transfers for Power 4) instead of trying to add to its returning starters, Hawaii is an attractive look.

Week 0 underdog combo

UNC

NC State

Hawaii

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Colby Marchio
Betting Analyst

Colby Marchio is a two-time DePaul alum and former Division 1 (club) baseball player who has been sports betting since 2019. Since graduating in 2021, he has worked throughout the media circuit, hosting and appearing on various television and radio shows while making countless guest appearances discussing Major League Baseball, college basketball, college football, and the National Football League.

A self-proclaimed numbers nerd, Colby may enjoy digging through the data even more than winning itself. That passion is why his two favorite sports to cover are college basketball and Major League Baseball. 

As for his favorite sportsbook, it is whichever one has the best price, or whichever one is not taxing him as an Illinois resident. 

You can find all of his plays and more @ColbyMBets on Twitter/X.

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