Texas vs Missouri Picks & Props
TEX vs MIZZ Picks
NCAAF PicksI would play the Missouri Tigers to cover this number down to 52%. The Texas Longhorns’ passing game runs through Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo, and both are questionable after leaving the win over Mississippi State hurt. Coleman hasn’t practiced this week. Arch Manning was already producing -0.04 EPA per dropback with them, and now he’s also playing without left tackle Trevor Goosby.
Missouri stalls near the goal line, posting a 35.7% success rate in the red zone, 125th nationally. On the other side, as mentioned, the Texas offense will come into this one banged up and already struggling. Neither offense is built to win a shootout.
The Texas Longhorns have posted negative offensive EPA per play in five straight games, and Coleman and Wingo were healthy for most of that stretch. Field position makes it worse. Texas ranks 137th of 138 teams in EPA per play on its own half of the field, so drives that start deep rarely flip the field.
Every leg runs through the same idea. Texas’ offense was already the weak link before its top two receivers got hurt, and Missouri can win a low-scoring game at home. The moneyline anchors it. If Texas can’t move the ball past midfield, Missouri doesn’t need a big day from its own offense to win, and both totals stay low.
TEX vs MIZZ Consensus Picks
TEX vs MIZZ Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
MIZZ
A. Simmons
(QB)
u213.5 Passing Yards
198.52 UNDER
PROJECTION
-15.0
DIFFERENCE
23.1%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
A. Manning
(QB)
o206.5 Passing Yards
212.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.7
DIFFERENCE
12.32%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
A. Manning
(QB)
o12.5 Rushing Yards
24.08 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.6
DIFFERENCE
26.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
TEX
R. Brown
(RB)
o59.5 Rushing Yards
70.66 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.2
DIFFERENCE
25.24%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIZZ
J. Roberts
(RB)
u94.5 Rushing Yards
92.87 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.6
DIFFERENCE
6.83%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
TEX
R. Brown
(RB)
o9.5 Receiving Yards
16.39 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.9
DIFFERENCE
25.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIZZ
D. Olugbode
(WR)
o54.5 Receiving Yards
68.72 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.2
DIFFERENCE
25.79%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIZZ
J. Roberts
(RB)
o13.5 Receiving Yards
18.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.6
DIFFERENCE
24.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIZZ
C. Lee
(WR)
u77.5 Receiving Yards
75.02 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.5
DIFFERENCE
15.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
TEX
R. Brown
(RB)
o1.5 Receptions
2.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.6
DIFFERENCE
6.13%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIZZ
J. Roberts
(RB)
u2.5 Receptions
2.36 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
5.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIZZ
D. Olugbode
(WR)
o4.5 Receptions
5.00 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.5
DIFFERENCE
3.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
TEX
R. Brown
(RB)
o13.5 Carries
15.28 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.8
DIFFERENCE
11.44%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
A. Manning
(QB)
u19.5 Completions
18.03 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.5
DIFFERENCE
16.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
MIZZ
A. Simmons
(QB)
u18.5 Completions
18.19 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
5.8%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 games following a straight up win.
Under is 7-1 in Longhorns last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
Tigers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.