One team holds a clear advantage at quarterback when SMU travels to Florida State to close out Week 1.
Our SMU vs. Florida State quarterback picks focus on a very favorable matchup for Kevin Jennings against a struggling Seminole secondary, as well as Ashton Daniels and his inability to consistently stretch the field with his arm.
Let's jump into more SMU vs. Florida State predictions and college football picks for Monday, Sept. 7, with the teams facing off at Doak Campbell Stadium and kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Best SMU vs Florida State QB prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kevin Jennings Over 1.5 passing touchdowns |
56% |
 Ashton Daniels Under 216.5 passing yards |
56% |
Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.
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SMU QB pick: Kevin Jennings Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Kevin Jennings threw 26 touchdown passes in 12 games for SMU last season. He was a consistent threat through the air, with multiple scoring throws in eight of his 10 outings against FBS opposition.
He's thrown 59 touchdowns over the past two seasons, and returns two familiar targets in Jalen Cooper and Yamir Knight. Last season, Florida State ranked in the 20th percentile in explosive pass rate against, and it appears little has changed.
In Week 0, they allowed New Mexico State — a team that ranked in the 25th percentile in EPA/dropback last season — to register 0.21 EPA per passing play. They also gave up five explosive plays as Trey Hedden connected on TD passes of 33 yards and 34 yards.
Back Jennings to have another game with multiple TD passes.
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Florida State QB pick: Ashton Daniels Under 216.5 passing yards
Ashton Daniels threw for just 202 yards in Week 0 against the Aggies, but what concerns me isn't the raw number. It's the fact he couldn't push the ball downfield with success. His leading receiver was running back Samuel Singleton Jr, who caught four of his 17 completions for 54 yards.
Last season, Daniels was just 5-for-16 on throws of 20+ yards, and 14-for-32 on throws beyond 10 yards. Against NMSU, he picked up more than half his completions either at or behind the line of scrimmage.
SMU's run defense last year was elite, and they're going to force Daniels to beat them through the air. Dumping the ball off and hoping for yards after the catch won't work against a defense that ranked ninth in tackling a season ago, per PFF.
SMU vs Florida State QB combo
- Kevin Jennings Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Ashton Daniels Under 216.5 passing yards
These two props provide a solid return when paired together and fall in line with the game script we're expecting, with SMU predicted to win comfortably.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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