Following a homecoming win over New Mexico State in Week 0, the Florida State Seminoles are back in action, hosting the SMU Mustangs in a standalone Labor Day fixture (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
Our SMU vs. Florida State expert picks are unanimously backing the Mustangs to come away with the road victory. Read on for our free college football picks for Monday, Sept. 7.
SMU vs Florida State expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: SMU -2.5 |
53% |
 Rob Paul: SMU -2.5 |
53% |
 Colby Marchio: SMU -2.5 |
53% |
 Chris Vasile: SMU -2.5 |
53% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: SMU -2.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
My ratings make SMU a 2.8-point favorite.
Florida State did not impress me in the opening win over New Mexico State. It was only a seven-point game late in the third quarter, and I downgraded their power rating 1.5-points.
Florida State's undersized defensive line that averages only 274 pounds a man created just a 6% Havoc rate in Week 0. I don't expect this unit to fare well against arguably the top offensive line in the ACC.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: SMU -2.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
Florida State was up only17-10 midway through the third quarter against a New Mexico State team that finished 123rd by SP+ in 2025. SMU finished 23rd last year and brings much of that roster back this season. The Mustangs are 22nd nationally in returning production (62%).
With one of the best offensive lines in the ACC protecting a proven QB in Kevin Jennings (59 TDs the last two seasons), SMU should pull away from a Seminoles defense that ranked outside the Top 50 in both EPA per pass and rush last year.
More SMU vs. Florida State picks from Covers
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: SMU -2.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
We are full-blown fading Florida State after an abysmal Week 0 performance, as the Seminoles allowed a very mid Group of Six school to nearly pull off the upset in their home opener.
New Mexico State racked up over 300 total yards of offense, threw for over 270 yards, and converted 10 of 17 third downs.
Some will argue this was a lookahead game. Some may say this Florida State team will bounce back. But they looked far too unprepared against a team they were supposed to demolish by 30+ points to buy into that ideology.
SMU has tape on those early flaws, and the Mustangs should be able to exploit those weaknesses with their talented roster and sneak out with the road win and cover.
If this is a sucker spot, it’s Week 1. I’ll live.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: SMU -2.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
FSU showed in Week 0 that it wants to lean heavily on the run, but SMU allowed just 3.2 yards per carry last season and less than three in ACC play. If the Mustangs force Ashton Daniels into obvious passing situations, his 25 career TDs against 23 INTs become a concern.
Offensively, Kevin Jennings threw for 3,641 yards last year, and SMU’s tempo should put pressure on an FSU defense that had communication and alignment issues against New Mexico State.
How to watch SMU vs Florida State
| Location | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date | Monday, Sept. 7, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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