Ole Miss and Texas square off in a marquee SEC showdown on Saturday, Oct. 24, with both teams looking to make a statement in Austin.
Our Ole Miss vs. Texas expert picks are split on tonight's matchup, with selections on both sides and the Over.
Here's how Brad Powers, Rob Paul, Colby Marchio, and Chris Vasile are approaching their Ole Miss vs. Texas predictions for Week 8.
Ole Miss vs Texas expert picks for tonight
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Over 53.5 |
51% |
 Rob Paul: Texas -3.5 |
47% |
 Colby Marchio: Ole Miss +3.5 |
53% |
 Chris Vasile: Ole Miss ML |
42% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Over 53.5
My power ratings put this total at 55, and that's without accounting for the injury to Texas EDGE Colin Simmons.
Simmons is arguably the best defensive player in college football. He leads the nation in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (16). He's valuable enough that I downgraded Texas' team power rating by 0.5 points.
Texas has already allowed 27 points in each of its last two games. One came against Oklahoma's No. 113-ranked scoring offense, while last week, Florida deployed a backup QB making his first career start.
I expect Ole Miss' No. 20-ranked scoring offense, led by QB Trinidad Chambliss, to take advantage of Simmons' absence.
The Rebels are coming off two of their better performances of the season. Last week, they finally had a healthy Kewan Lacy at RB, and Ole Miss rushed for a season-high 257 yards.
On the other side, it's officially "now or never" for Texas QB Arch Manning. He's always responded well to adversity in the past.
Manning has had three games over the last two years in which he posted a QBR below 25. The following week, he bounced back with an average QBR of 65. Last week, he posted a 20.5 QBR against Florida.
I would play this to 54.5.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Texas -3.5
Will Arch Manning show up to play against his uncle and grandfather's alma mater? I think so, and I like Texas to cover up to -5.5 at home against Ole Miss, with Manning and Steve Sarkisian's seats hotter than Austin in August.
Texas has the advantage on the defensive side of the ball, even with Colin Simmons unlikely to play. The Longhorns rank in the Top 15 nationally in available yards percentage (31.2%) and havoc rate (20%).
Ole Miss' defense hasn't performed well in ranked matchups away from home, allowing 45 points per game. The Rebels can't expect Trinidad Chambliss to be Superman every week, especially against arguably the best defense Ole Miss has faced. The Longhorns have allowed just four TD passes this season and rank No. 3 nationally in net adjusted EPA per play.
With Ole Miss allowing 35.6 points per game outside Oxford and surrendering the most yards per game in the SEC (390), Manning, Raleek Brown, and Cam Coleman have a chance to deliver their best offensive performance in weeks.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Ole Miss +3.5
Ole Miss has bounced back in a big way from its loss to Florida, outscoring Vanderbilt and Missouri 82-20 over the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, Texas is officially on quit watch after losing to a freshman making his first collegiate start. Now, the Longhorns must face Trinidad Chambliss and a dangerous Rebels squad.
Ole Miss or nothing.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Ole Miss moneyline
Texas goes three-and-out on 34.3% of its possessions, the worst rate in the SEC. That's a dangerous weakness against an Ole Miss defense that just held Missouri to three points and 39 rushing yards.
The Rebels should give Trinidad Chambliss enough possessions to make something happen, particularly with Texas pass rusher Colin Simmons doubtful. The Longhorns have lost two straight, and I don't trust their offense to keep up if Ole Miss gets ahead.
Give me the Rebels outright.
Ole Miss vs Texas odds for tonight
How to watch Ole Miss vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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