Saturday night features a heavyweight clash in Austin between Ohio State and Texas, and our projection model has pinpointed the sharpest plays on the card.
Powered by target share and workload forecasts for Jeremiah Smith, Arch Manning, and Ryan Wingo, here is where our numbers see edge in the our Ohio State vs. Texas computer picks and college football picks for Sept. 12.
Ohio State vs Texas computer picks for Week 2
 Ohio State |
 Texas |
|---|---|
| Smith o84.5 receiving yards 57% |
Manning u26.5 rushing yards 65% |
| McCuin o45.5 receiving yards 45% |
Wingo o51.5 receiving yards 58% |
| Smith o5.5 receptions 61% |
Brown o42.5 rushing yards 50% |
Ohio State computer picks
Jeremiah Smith Over 84.5 receiving yards (57%)
Projection: 120.85 receiving yards
Jeremiah Smith is primed to clear Over 84.5 receiving yards against Texas. Coming off an eight-catch, 151-yard, two-touchdown masterpiece against Ball State, Smith enters Austin with elite momentum.
His growing chemistry with second-year starter Julian Sayin gives Ohio State a vertical threat that forces defenses into impossible choices.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian acknowledged Smith's Julio Jones-like physical profile, meaning even tight safety help won't neutralize his contested-catch ability.
With a history of explosive 50-plus-yard plays in marquee games, Smith needs only a few targets to cash this line.
🏈 Bet SMITH RECEIVING yards now
Devin McCuin Over 45.5 receiving yards (45%)
Projection: 57.68 receiving yards
Devin McCuin is set up to clear Over 45.5 receiving yards against Texas. Emerging as Ohio State’s clear No. 2 option after hauling in six passes for 97 yards in Week 1, the UTSA transfer gives Julian Sayin an immediate reliable target in the passing game.
With Texas focusing its defensive coverage heavily on neutralizing Jeremiah Smith, McCuin should see favorable single-coverage matchups out of the slot. His route-running precision and run-after-catch playmaking give him high-volume potential.
In what expects to be a competitive script, McCuin needs only four to five catches to comfortably eclipse this threshold.
🔥 Bet McCUIN receiving yards now
Jeremiah Smith Over 5.5 receptions (61%)
Projection: 8.33 receptions
Ohio State’s alpha receiver enters Austin coming off an eight-catch, 151-yard performance in Week 1, demonstrating his immediate connection with second-year starter Julian Sayin.
Even when Texas schemed to limit Smith’s explosive plays in past matchups, Ryan Day kept him heavily involved through short-rhythm targets and screen concepts—allowing Smith to grab six receptions against the Longhorns last season.
With Texas likely deploying bracket coverage deep, expect Ohio State to manufacture high-percentage, quick-striking touches to get the ball into their playmaker's hands, making six catches a very achievable target.
Texas computer picks
Arch Manning Under 26.5 rushing yards (65%)
Projection: 17.18 rushing yards
Taking the Under on Arch Manning’s 26.5 rushing yards is a sharp play against Ohio State’s elite defensive front.
Ohio State’s defensive line excels at winning early up front, pressuring the pocket without having to over-blitz or surrender scramble lanes.
Steve Sarkisian’s script will likely prioritize high-percentage, quick-rhythm passes to keep Manning protected rather than calling designed QB runs into the heart of the Buckeyes' front.
Just two or three coverage sacks can easily erase any scrambled yardage, keeping Manning below this mark.
🏈 Bet MANNING RUSHING yards now
Ryan Wingo Over 51.5 receiving yards (58%)
Projection: 71.63 receiving yards
Take Ryan Wingo to eclipse Over 51.5 receiving yards against Ohio State.
The junior wideout cemented his status as Arch Manning’s top vertical option after racking up 121 yards and a touchdown on seven receptions in the season opener.
With Ohio State likely dedicating bracket coverage to slow down transfer target Cam Coleman, Wingo should see favorable single-coverage match-ups on the outside.
His elite run-after-catch playmaking and deep-threat capability mean he can cash this prop on just three or four targets, making 52 yards a very attainable hurdle in a high-stakes showdown.
🔥 Bet wingo receiving yards now
Raleek Brown Over 42.5 rushing yards (50%)
Projection: 44.31 rushing yards
The elite Arizona State transfer step into Texas' backfield as a dynamic, 1,100-yard rusher accustomed to high-volume workloads in marquee matchups.
Steve Sarkisian’s play-calling routinely leans on versatile backs to keep defense fronts honest, and Raleek Brown’s elite burst out of the backfield allows him to break explosive, chunk plays in space.
With Ohio State’s secondary likely focusing bracket coverage on Texas’ vertical passing threats, light box counts will open up clean running lanes.
A modest workload of 10 to 12 touches is all Brown needs to clear this 42.5-yard threshold comfortably.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
