There are some really great under-the-radar college football matchups early on this bowl season, and you know we’ve got some gamers in the Xbox Bowl, where the Missouri State Bears will take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves.
It’s been a banner year for MO State, notching seven wins in its first season at the FBS level.
My Missouri State vs. Arkansas State predictions and college football picks break down how the Bears will take to the air to earn their first bowl win on Thursday, December 18.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State predictions for the Xbox Bowl
Who will win the Xbox Bowl?
The Missouri State Bears. I don't care that this is their first season at the FBS level. They have a passing attack that can take advantage of a suspect Arkansas State Red Wolves secondary.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State best bet: Missouri State moneyline (-102)
It’s hard to know what to expect from a former FCS team making the jump to the FBS, but the Missouri State Bears passed their test with flying colors.
MO State notched an impressive seven wins this season, including a five-game winning streak and a win over preseason C-USA favorite Liberty.
The Bears are led by quarterback Jacob Clark, who threw for 2,895 yards with 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has MO State ranked 79th in success rate on dropbacks. Now, that may seem unremarkable, but that will be more than good enough in this Xbox Bowl matchup against Arkansas State.
The Red Wolves went 6-6, which includes going 5-2 in their last seven games.
But Clark and the Bears' aerial attack will be a problem for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves have one of the worst secondaries in the country, ranking 131st in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 105th in EPA per dropback.
The problem for the Red Wolves is that their offense isn’t much better, ranking 112th in EPA per play.
Missouri State is getting a little overlooked because this is just its first FBS campaign, but the wrong team is favored. So, give me the Bears on the moneyline in the Xbox Bowl, earning that first FBS bowl win.
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Missouri State vs Arkansas State same-game parlay
Let’s try to mess with the SGP algorithm here by taking Missouri State to go Over its team total, but for the game to go Under the full-game total.
The Bears have topped this number in four of their last five games, while Arkansas State has allowed opponents to go Over that number in six of its last nine.
But at the same time, I’m not sure that the Red Wolves can do enough to send this game Over. Arkansas State ranks 112th in EPA per play and 115th in points per quality drive.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State SGP
- Missouri State moneyline
- Missouri State team total Over 27.5
- Under 54.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Bears are hot to go
Let's take MO State to get off to a good start by winning the first-quarter moneyline.
Missouri State vs Arkansas State SGP
- Missouri State moneyline
- Missouri State team total Over 27.5
- Under 54.5
- Missouri State 3-way first-quarter moneyline
Missouri State vs Arkansas State odds
- Spread: Missouri State +1.5 (-120) | Arkansas State -1.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Missouri State -104 | Arkansas State -112
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 (-114) | Under 54.5 (-106)
Missouri State vs Arkansas State trend to know
Missouri State has hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games for +2.95 Units and a 50% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri State vs Arkansas State.
How to watch Missouri State vs Arkansas State
| Location | Ford Center At The Star, Frisco, TX |
| Date | Thursday, December 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
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