The 2025 season has gotten off to a rough start for the once-ranked Kansas State Wildcats, now 1-2 after narrowly escaping North Dakota as 27.5-point favorites.
Now listed as just 1.5-point road favorites against the Arizona Wildcats, my Kansas State vs. Arizona predictions explore whether K-State has already hit rock bottom — or if Arizona is about to push them even lower.
Check out my college football picks for this Big 12 showdown taking place on September 12, with kickoff at 9p.m. ET on FOX.
Kansas State vs Arizona prediction
Kansas State vs Arizona best bet: Quincy Craig anytime touchdown (+130)
The Kansas State Wildcats are down bad. They enter this week’s matchup against the Arizona Wildcats, lucky to be 1-2, and are 0-3 against the spread.
QB Avery Johnson has been fine, but he still misses too many throws, while only rushing for 78 yards and one touchdown.
What may be more shocking is the K-State defensive front has been pushed around this season. It allowed Army to possess the ball for more than 40 minutes, and the Wildcats had the ball for less than four minutes in the second half.
Now, they’ll head on the road on a short week to take on another Wildcats team feeling pretty good about itself. Arizona is 2-0 coming off a 48-3 win over FCS Weber State following a 40-3 win over Hawaii.
Senior QB Noah Fifita is back under center and had a great game against Weber State, but it was the run game that was the star against Hawaii.
Portland State transfer RB Quincy Craig has looked like the most dynamic back for Arizona this season, rushing for 156 yards and a score on 15 carries. He also got the early work in both games, and will be called upon in the red zone on Friday.
Kansas State vs Arizona same-game parlay
While Arizona has yet to give up a touchdown this season, playing Hawaii and FCS Weber State largely accounts for that. Despite its struggles, Kansas State is still a talented football team.
I think Arizona’s defense — which returns nine starters — will be improved this season, but Kansas State cannot afford another letdown.
Avery Johnson rushed the ball just three times in the loss to Army. It feels like there is no way Chris Klieman’s staff will let that happen again. I’ll take Johnson Over 39.5 rushing yards vs. an Arizona team he went for 110 rushing yards against last season.
With that in mind, if Johnson can kickstart the K-State offense, I’m betting we see some scoring on Friday night.
Kansas State vs Arizona SGP
- Quincy Craig anytime touchdown
- Avery Johnson Over 39.5 rushing yards
- Over 54.5 (+503)
Our deep-ball SGP: TDs galore
- Let's turn an anytime TD for Craig into 2+ TDs, as he should get more work in what should be Arizona's first competitive game.
- Let's add an Avery Johnson anytime TD as well, since the QB rushed for seven TDs last season.
Kansas State vs Arizona SGP
- Quincy Craig 2+ touchdowns
- Avery Johnson Over 39.5 rushing yards
- Avery Johnson anytime touchdown
- Over 54.5
Kansas State vs Arizona game predictions
Kansas State vs Arizona moneyline prediction
Kansas State has been bad... like, really bad. Like, probably should have lost to North Dakota bad. Arizona is at home, feeling good about itself with a more balanced offense and and an experienced defense. AZ pulls out the win here.
Kansas State vs Arizona spread prediction
So if Arizona is going to win, it'll cover the spread as a short home underdog in the process. Kansas State is 0-3 ATS this season, while Arizona is 2-0 ATS.
Kansas State vs Arizona Over/Under prediction
I'm going Over the total of 54.5 here. While I'm fading K-State because the vibes in Manhattan are just so bad right now, it's just got to get the ball in the hands of its best playmaker more, Avery Johnson. With the way Arizona has been moving the football, the Over looks like the proper play here.
Kansas State vs Arizona odds
- Spread: Kansas State -1.5 | Arizona +1.5
- Moneyline: Kansas State -120 | Arizona +100
- Over/Under: Over 54.5 | Under 54.5
Kansas State vs Arizona trend to know
Kansas State has only covered the spread in four of their last 14 games for -6.95 Units and a -45% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Kansas State vs Arizona.
How to watch Kansas State vs Arizona
| Location | Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ |
| Date | Friday, September 12, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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