Just two weeks into the college football season, the Heisman Trophy odds race is taking shape with Miami's Darian Mensah, Notre Dame's CJ Carr, Texas' Arch Manning, and Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith atop the board.
But despite Manning leading his Longhorns to a fourth-quarter comeback to beat Smith's Buckeyes, the favorite to be the No. 1 pick is my top sell as part of my Heisman Hedge Fund heading into Week 3.
In fact, I'm far more bullish on another SEC QB this early in the season.
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After taking the top spot following a strong Week 1 performance against Stanford, Miami's Darian Mensah remains the Heisman favorite. Mensah threw three touchdowns on just 15 attempts in a 77-7 Week 2 win over Florida A&M and leads the country in QBR (96.5).
However, Miami has yet to play a quality opponent, so it's hard to gauge how serious a contender Mensah is at this point. On the other hand, in an ACC that lacks a college football national championship odds contender (outside of the Hurricanes), he could put up huge numbers.
Miami's Nov. 7 game against Notre Dame could make or break his Heisman case. Mensah is also competing with his own teammate, Malachi Toney, who is third nationally in receiving yards (330) and fifth in receiving touchdowns (4). Toney was my No. 1 buy after Week 1.
CJ Carr, who was my No. 1 sell ahead of the season, remains a contender I don't believe in, while Arch Manning is my No. 1 fade this week.
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Week 3 Heisman odds portfolio strategy
| Player, POS | Position |  Probability |
Action/price |
|---|---|---|---|
| ❌ None | Buy | N/A% | N/A |
 Arch Manning, QB |
Sell | 10% | No (92¢) |
 Kamario Taylor, QB |
Hold | 7% | Yes (current price: 6¢/purchase price: 2¢) |
 Austin Simmons, QB |
Penny stock | 1% | Yes (1¢) |
Buy: None
Sometimes, the best move is to have the restraint not to buy when there's no value on the board. With the haul of Heisman contenders I currently have (primarily Jeremiah Smith, Toney, and Kamario Taylor), I'm not moved by any other player with a serious chance of winning the award.
Mensah is far too expensive at this point without having seen him face a defense ranked better than 70th by SP+, and Toney remains the better play. Carr has been solid but was a little sporadic against Wisconsin in Week 1, and I don't think he'll put up the counting numbers needed to be in contention.
I'm in wait-and-see mode with SEC QBs like Trinidad Chambliss and Gunner Stockton. Chambliss is an interesting buy heading into the LSU vs. Ole Miss rivalry, especially if you think Ole Miss will get revenge on Lane Kiffin for leaving (I don't), and Stockton and Georgia just haven't played a relevant team yet.
The best reason to buy any of Mensah, Carr, Chambliss, or Stockton would be assuming their prices will continue to rise, then selling whichever ones you don't seriously believe will contend for the Heisman before their prices drop. Selling contracts you've already bought at a higher price is a unique way to make a profit on Kalshi.
And then there's the Manning conundrum.
Sell: Arch Manning, QB, Texas
- Kalshi probability: 10%
- 2026 stats: 500 passing yards, 5 TD passes, 2 INTs
- Key metric: Fourth nationally in drop rate (15.7%)
- Week 3 opponent: vs. UTSA
Manning is the most interesting player in the Heisman race. He just pulled off the biggest win of his collegiate career against No. 1 Ohio State, leading three straight scoring drives to secure a 24-23 victory for Texas.
He also put up a pedestrian stat line, completing 23 of 37 passes for 195 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. And while the INT was a freak play on a drop from Cam Coleman that wasn't Manning's fault, it speaks to a bigger issue with the Longhorns.
Last year, the Longhorns dropped 22 of Manning's passes to give him an 8.1% drop rate (17th-highest in the Power Four among QBs with 300+ dropbacks). As a result, Steve Sarkisian and GM Brandon Harris used the portal to bolster his pass-catching talent.
Well, it hasn't gone great, with Texas' playmakers already dropping eight of Manning's passes, including five against the Buckeyes. If this continues into SEC play, it will kill Texas' offense in big spots, and it's not as if the Longhorns have an easy path forward.
Texas plays five more defenses ranked in the Top 15 by SP+. Meanwhile, Manning's comments about an AI edit of Sarkisian's postgame fiasco with reporter Holly Rowe won't impact his 2027 NFL Draft odds, but as our Jon Metler pointed out, it could be taken into consideration for at least some of the 931 Heisman voters.
Hold: Kamario Taylor, QB, Mississippi State
- Kalshi probability: 7%
- 2026 stats: 581 passing yards, 8 total TDs, 0 INTs
- Key metric: 10th nationally in QBR (88.7)
- Week 3 opponent: at South Carolina
It wouldn't be hard to justify selling Taylor as a Heisman winner after buying him last week at a penny stock price. The Mississippi State pivot was newly on the board following his Week 1 performance against UL Monroe (413 total yards, five total TDs) and made one of the best throws you'll see all season.
Taylor's the biggest Heisman riser of Week 2 — going from a 2% probability at Kalshi to 7% — after torching Minnesota on the road to the tune of 227 passing yards, three TD passes, and adding 86 rushing yards. He once again made some outrageous plays, but this time it came against a Power Four opponent with a defense ranked Top 35 by SP+.
His play has actually been overshadowed on social media by football fans/analysts pondering where he'll transfer to next year and State fans/analysts pointing out why he won't leave. (Among my least favorite trends in college football is when a great player at a lesser program shines and all anyone wants to talk about is them leaving.)
But let's focus on the now, and right now Taylor is the only QB in the Power Four with 500+ passing yards and 140+ rushing yards. He'll continue putting up massive numbers in Jeff Lebby's veer-and-shoot offense, and he's worth holding onto for at least another week or two.
If Taylor's play stays hot against South Carolina and Missouri, then he would be a strong candidate to sell ahead of Mississippi State's game against Alabama on Oct. 3.
Penny stock: Austin Simmons, QB, Missouri
- Kalshi probability: 1%
- 2026 stats: 544 passing yards, 7 TD passes, 0 INTs
- Key metric: Leads Power Four in adjusted completion rate (87%)
- Week 3 opponent: vs. Troy
Before Chambliss announced himself as one of the best QBs in the country at Ole Miss last season, he was backing up Austin Simmons.
Simmons was supposed to be Kiffin's next star QB after Jaxson Dart became a first-round pick; instead, an injury led to him getting Wally Pipped in Oxford by Chambliss.
Now Simmons is at Missouri and looks like the most physically talented QB Eli Drikwitz has had in Columbia. In his first road start against archrival Kansas, Simmons was arguably the best player on the field in the Border War.
The ball jumped out of Simmons' hand, and he was deadly accurate (85.2% adjusted completion percentage), hitting tight windows and layering the ball at an NFL level. He was unfazed by several big drops from his receivers too (four), and bounced back from going down 7-0 on a blocked field goal return TD by leading touchdown drives on four of Missouri's next five drives.
With one of the best offensive lines in the country protecting him, Simmons' arm talent should continue to shine. That will raise his price and make him a strong candidate to sell for a profit.
My Heisman portfolio tracker
Between adding Smith before the season and Toney last week, I'm feeling pretty good about where my Heisman portfolio stands. Though they're receivers, and only four have won the Heisman since 1987, they're the two best players in the country.
Even in a loss to Texas, Smith was the best player on the field and finished with 164 receiving yards while averaging 4.69 yards per route run. Smith and Toney both rank top-five in the country in receiving yards.
While some of my QB buys have been iffy (Dante Moore, Keelon Russell), hitting on Taylor and Drew Mestemaker gives me two potentially lucrative contracts to sell for a profit later in the season.
It's still so early in the season, and a lot will change here once conference play is fully underway.
| Player | Week added | Position | Entry price/current price |
|---|---|---|---|
 Jeremiah Smith, WR |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/7¢ |
 Keelon Russell, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/3¢ |
 Dante Moore, QB |
Week 0 | Buy (Yes) | 6¢/6¢ |
 Josh Hoover, QB |
Week 1 | Buy (Yes) | 5¢/4¢ |
 Malachi Toney, WR |
Week 2 | Buy (Yes) | 7¢/7¢ |
 CJ Carr, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 89¢/92¢ |
 Sam Leavitt, QB |
Week 0 | Sell (No) | 97¢/95¢ |
 LaNorris Sellers, QB |
Week 1 | Sell (No) | 98¢/98¢ |
 Jayden Maiava, QB |
Week 2 | Sell (No) | 96¢/96¢ |
| Arch Manning, QB |
Week 3 | Sell (No) | 92¢/92¢ |
 Drew Mestemaker, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, QB |
Week 0 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
 Will Hammond, QB |
Week 1 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/1¢ |
| Kamario Taylor, QB |
Week 2 | Penny stock (Yes) | 2¢/2¢ |
| Austin Simmons, QB |
Week 3 | Penny stock (Yes) | 1¢/1¢ |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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