Each week during the season, I’ll be going over my biggest power ratings adjustments from the week prior and the best spot bets.
Week 2 offered some huge surprises, like Oklahoma State upsetting Oregon as 23.5-point underdogs and Mississippi State dominating Minnesota as only a 1-point road favorite.
I have some of my largest discrepancies of the season so far with my power ratings that you can still take advantage of in this week's college football picks.
Week 3 power ratings for the top 10
| Rank | Team | Last Week | This Week | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio State | 94.28 | 93.28 | -1.0 |
| 2 | Notre Dame | 92.40 | 92.90 | 0.5 |
| 3 | Georgia | 91.44 | 92.44 | 1.0 |
| 4 | Texas | 91.07 | 92.07 | 1.0 |
| 5 | Indiana | 90.53 | 90.53 | 0.0 |
| 6 | Miami (FL) | 89.65 | 90.15 | 0.5 |
| 7 | LSU | 86.66 | 86.66 | 0.0 |
| 8 | Oregon | 90.58 | 86.58 | -4.0 |
| 9 | Alabama | 85.38 | 86.38 | 1.0 |
| 10 | Texas A&M | 85.17 | 84.67 | -0.5 |
Brad Powers Week 3 top picks
For help understanding Kalshi odds, please see our odds calculator.
| Best Bet |  |
|---|---|
 LSUat  Ole Miss |
Ole Miss +3.5 55% |
 Purdueat  UCLA |
Purdue +14.5 53% |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including college football!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Brad Powers Week 3 power ratings
Mississippi +3.5 over LSU (Sept. 19, 7:30 p.m. ET)
I've upgraded LSU’s power rating four points since the start of the season. However, I do hold a couple of concerns.
First, LSU’s dominating performance versus Clemson in Week 1 might not prove to be overly impressive considering Clemson could be lucky to make a bowl game this year.
Second, LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt has quietly thrown four interceptions already this season. Obviously, multiple turnovers isn't a recipe for success on the road.
Meanwhile, Mississippi sleepwalked through last week’s game versus Charlotte, which didn't surprise me at all. I gave out Charlotte as a best bet last week. I didn't punish the Rebels too much in my power ratings for that performance.
Finally, I’m expecting one of the most hostile atmospheres in college football this season. Typically, I give Mississippi 3 points for home-field advantage, as they're on a 23-1 straight-up run at home. I gave the Rebels an extra 0.5 points here.
Purdue +14.5 over UCLA (Sept. 19, 11 p.m. ET)
My power ratings only make Purdue an 11.5-point underdog here, and I would play this to +14.
Purdue is improved in Year 2 under head coach Barry Odom. Last week the Boilermakers nearly pulled off a small upset at home versus Wake Forest before losing by two.
Wake Forest converted a 4th-and-15 in the second overtime. Change that one unlikely conversion, and Purdue enters this game 2-0. Without that, would the Boilermakers still be catching more than two touchdowns here? I have my doubts.
On the other side, my power ratings have liked UCLA all offseason and in each of the first two weeks. So far, so good, as the Bruins are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS.
However, each of their two games featured misleading final scores. UCLA won the opener versus California 45-24. The game was tied at 24-24 with under 10 minutes left.
Last week, UCLA beat San Diego State 28-10. Again, UCLA was only winning 7-3 with under 10 minutes remaining in the game.
Those misleading finals are creating some value here.
Biggest upgrades from last week
📈 Massachusetts up 9 points
The Minutemen pulled off the biggest stunner of the CFB so season so far when they upset Rutgers 37-21 as 29.5-point underdogs in Week 1. There was nothing fluky about the game, as they out-rushed the Scarlet Knights 200-27.
Equally as impressive was the Minutemen covering as a 23.5-point favorite last week versus Sacred Heart. That was their biggest favorite role ever. UMass entered the season having lost 16 straight games. Now my power ratings are calling for seven wins. Keep in mind, UMass has never won more than four games in a season since joining the FBS almost 15 years ago.
📈 North Texas up 6 points
Coming into the season, I downgraded North Texas' power rating more than any team in the country (-17 points!). The school was coming off a historic 12-win season, had a new coach, and was returning zero starters from last year.
Despite a 52-16 loss to defending national champion Indiana in the opener, North Texas actually outgained the Hoosiers! Last week as a 3-point home underdog, they destroyed UNLV 44-6. North Texas’ win total was 5.5 coming into the season, and now my power ratings are calling for 7.5 wins.
Biggest downgrades from last week
📉 Rutgers down 8 points
Rutgers is 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS after failing to cover its two games by a combined 49.5 points. Last week's opening possession at Boston College can sum up the Scarlet Knights' entire season, which is when they needed to take a timeout on 3rd-and-1. After the timeout, they failed to convert. Then they went for it on 4th-and-1 and failed on a QB sneak, setting up Boston College for a very short field and a quick 7-0 lead.
Right now, my power ratings have the Scarlet Knights favored in only one game (versus FCS Howard). This looks like the final season for head coach Greg Schiano.
📉 Clemson down 7 points
LSU destroyed Clemson 51-10 in the opener. It was worse than the final score, as they were outgained by an incredible 499 yards.
How did the Tigers follow up that putrid performance? How about only leading Georgia Southern 16-7 late in the fourth quarter. Now Clemson’s starting QB Christopher Vizzina is out for this week's game versus North Carolina. The Tigers will need to start true freshman Tait Reynolds against a Bill Belichick defense.
📉 Oregon down 5.5 points
Oregon is maybe the country's most disappointing team considering its lofty preseason expectations. The Ducks have failed to cover the spread by a combined 50 points! Last week they suffered a shocking upset loss to Oklahoma State, going down 39-31. The box score indicated a much more lopsided affair, as the Ducks were outgained by more than 250 yards.
Dan Lanning's two coordinator hires seem to be underwhelming at best, and Oregon is getting whipped at the line of scrimmage. Right now, the Ducks are +165 underdogs to make the playoffs after being a popular pick to win it all by many (including me).
More Covers college football betting tools
- College football picks
- College football odds
- National Championship odds
- Heisman Trophy odds
- Best football betting sites
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
