The Week 3 college football slate, for better or for worse, will be defined by Lane Kiffin's return to Oxford as LSU takes on Ole Miss on ABC at 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday night.
My college football against the spread picks break down that 2.5-point spread and why defense will be the difference for the Tigers. That game and more in my full slate of college football picks below.
College football picks against the spread for Week 3
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| Matchup |  |
|---|---|
 Miami vs  Wake Forest |
-20.5 |
 Houston vs  Texas Tech |
+7.5 |
 Georgia vs  Arkansas |
-24.5 |
 Kentucky vs  Texas A&M |
+16.5 |
 Florida State vs  Alabama |
-19.5 |
 USC vs  Rutgers |
+23.5 |
 SMU vs  Louisville |
+1.5 |
 Michigan State vs  Notre Dame |
-29.5 |
 LSU vs  Ole Miss |
-2.5 |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 3 CFB ATS picks
Miami (-20.5) vs Wake Forest: Miami -20.5
Miami's offense is a freight train I'm not sure anyone, let alone Wake Forest, can slow down right now. What might Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney do to a Demon Deacons defense that just gave up 329 passing yards to Purdue?
Houston vs Texas Tech (-7.5): Houston +7.5
Texas Tech got outgained 472-352 and looked incredibly shaky on defense against Oregon State last weekend and needed a 14-3 fourth quarter to avoid losing as a four-touchdown favorite. That's enough for me to take the points, even if I think TTU will stay undefeated.
Georgia (-24.5) vs Arkansas: Georgia -24.5
Arkansas is getting disastrous quarterback play at the moment, even benching starter KJ Jackson in a 43-10 loss to Utah after completing just 14 of 34 passes for no touchdowns and an interception. This is not a situation you want to be in with a rolling Georgia coming to town.
Kentucky vs Texas A&M (-16.5): Kentucky +16.5
This spread is giving Texas A&M a lot of credit for its 48-20 win over Arizona State but that game was just 24-20 through three quarters. The Aggies took advantage of four turnovers but got outgained 369-255 and allowed more first downs. I'll back the Wildcats to play much better after last week's beatdown from Alabama.
Florida State vs Alabama (-19.5): Alabama -19.5
Speaking of Alabama, this defense shut out Kentucky in the second half and held the Wildcats to 3.3 yards per play and 1-for-14 on third down. I don't expect a stumbling FSU program to put up enough of a fight in Tuscaloosa.
USC (-23.5) vs Rutgers: Rutgers +23.5
I wouldn't trust USC's defense to cover a spread this big at home, let alone on the road, where the Trojans consistently played down to their competition last season. Give me all of those points.
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SMU vs Louisville (-1.5): SMU +1.5
In an otherwise even matchup, I'll lean on the experience of Kevin Jennings at quarterback (28 career starts) against Lincoln Keinholz in just his third career start. Give me the Mustangs.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame (-29.5): Notre Dame -29.5
Notre Dame is 9-3 ATS against current Big Ten teams under Marcus Freeman and 5-0 if you exclude Ohio State and USC. The Spartans got gashed for several explosive plays against Toledo, and I suspect they'll have similar issues at Notre Dame Stadium this weekend.
LSU (-2.5) vs Ole Miss: LSU -2.5
While both offenses are excellent, LSU's defense should be trusted to get more stops, and over 60 minutes, that will give Lane Kiffin & Co. enough of an edge to cover this small number in Oxford.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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